ELEVATED INTEREST RATES, INVENTORY SHORTAGE DICTATING THE MARKET

Elevated interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale continued to dictate the California housing market in June 2023, with the year-over-year price decline at its lowest rate this year, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

For June 2023, in San Diego, home sales were lower and home prices were higher in month-over-month comparisons between June 2023 and May 2023.

Sales of existing, single-family homes in San Diego County in June 2023 declined by 6.6 percent in a month-over-month comparison with May 2023, while the figure was 24.3 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with June 2022.

Meanwhile, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County increased in June 2023 to $958,250, compared to $935,000 in May 2023, a 2.5 percent difference. In a year-over-year comparison, the median price was $950,000 in June 2022, a 0.9 percent difference.

June 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Statewide, the sales pace for existing, single-family homes in June 2023 was down by 4.1 percent, compared to May 2023, when 289,460 homes were sold, and it was down by 19.7 percent from June 2022, when a revised 345,760 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 277,490 in June, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the June pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the ninth consecutive month. The yearly drop was the smallest since May 2022 and marked the first time in a year that sales dropped by less than 20 percent from a year ago.

However, the smaller decline was due primarily to weaker sales last June, when sales dropped below 350,000 for the first time in two years.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 32.9 percent in June 2023.

California’s median home price exceeded $800,000 in June for the third straight month, edging up 0.3 percent from $836,110 in May 2023 to $838,260 in June 2023. The statewide median price continued to rise and reached the highest level in 10 months. The tight housing supply and more high-end homes being sold relative to prior months continued to put upward pressure on prices.

Despite the improvement from early 2023, the median home price in California in June 2023 dipped 2.4 percent on a year-over-year basis for the eighth consecutive month from $858,800 in June 2022.

While the downward movement in home prices appears to indicate that housing values are stabilizing, more dips in the median price are expected in the coming months as rates will likely remain elevated for most, if not the entire third quarter of 2023. Higher home prices are a warning signal that housing affordability could remain low in the second half of the year.

“California’s housing market has improved since the winter and appears to have found its footing as sales declined at the slowest pace in over a year,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “Despite elevated interest rates, the demand for housing continues to outpace the availability of homes for sale, as buyers slowly adapt to the new normal under the current housing market conditions.”

“Buyer demand appears to have stabilized after rates doubled last year, though rates could still move higher in the coming months,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “As inflation finally subsides later this year, the market could see some improvement as rates and supply conditions start turning around.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s June 2023 resale housing report include:

• At the regional level, year-over-year sales declined in June 2023 in the Southern California region by 19.4 percent.
  
  
• At the regional level, median home prices in June 2023 dropped from a year ago in the Southern California region by 1.8 percent.
  
  
• Housing inventory in California inched up in June 2023, compared to May 2023, but it was lower than in June 2022, as tight housing supply continues to be the norm. With mortgage rates expected to be high in the next couple of months, California may not see any meaningful improvement in its housing inventory throughout the third quarter.
  
  
• The statewide unsold inventory in June 2023 increased 4.8 percent, compared to May 2023, but dropped 8.3 percent from a year ago in June 2022.
  
  
• Active listings statewide for June 2023 fell sharply by 34 percent, compared to June 2022. It was the largest year-over-year decline since May 2021.
  
  
• Unsold inventory in June 2023 declined in several price ranges from a year ago in June 2022. The mid-price segment of $750,000-$999,000 recorded the biggest year-over-year decline in unsold inventory of 16 percent, followed by the $500,000-$749,000 price range (-12.5 percent) and the sub-$500,000 (-11.5 percent). Unsold inventory in June 2023 for homes priced at $1 million and higher was unchanged in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons.
  
  

June 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

• Statewide unsold inventory on a monthly basis increased to 2.2 months, compared to 2.1 months for May 2023 and 2.4 months for May 2022.
  
  
• In San Diego, in June 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.0 months, compared to 1.7 months for May 2023 and 2.4 months for May 2022. Other unsold inventory figures in 2023 in San Diego included 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.
  
  
• Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 15 days in June 2023, compared to 17 days in May 2023, 20 days in April 2023 and 14 days a year ago in June 2022.
  
  
• In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 11 days in June 2023, compared to 12 days in May 2023 and 11 days in June 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures in San Diego in 2023 include 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.
  
  
• The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio was at 100 percent in June, May and April 2023, 99.1 percent in March 2023, 97.7 percent in February 2023 and 96.5 percent in January 2023. A year ago, in June 2022, the ratio was 101.3 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
  
  
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.71 percent in June, up from 5.52 percent in June 2022, according to Freddie Mac.