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HOUSING MARKET CONTINUES TO NORMALIZE IN JULY

Posted by Rick Griffin on Aug 27, 2021 8:02:59 AM

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As a follow-up from white-hot conditions in both home sales and prices, the California housing market moderated for the third straight month in July.

Both home sales and prices have tempered from the heated market conditions seen over the past year, according to the monthly home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate were dipped 1.6 percent in July 2021, when 428,980 homes were sold, compared to the previous month of June 2021 when 436,020 homes were sold. July 2021 statewide home sales also were down 2 percent from July 2020, when 437,890 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The statewide annualized sales figure, collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide, represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Despite the slight decline, July’s statewide sale total was the second highest for a July in the past six years. Also, the state’s home sales pace maintained a solid year-to-date increase of 27.3 percent.

In San Diego, home sales in July 2021 were 7.4 percent lower compared to June 2021, but 1.4 percent higher than July 2020.

Home prices also remained at moderate levels in July 2021.

After setting record highs for the past four consecutive months, California’s median home price slipped 1 percent on a month-to-month basis to $811,170 in July 2021, down from June 2021’s $819,630 and up 21.7 percent from the $666,320 recorded last July 2020. The median price in California remained above the $800,000 benchmark for the fourth consecutive month.

In San Diego, the median price for a single-family detached home in July 2021 was $860,000, which was $5,000 or 0.6 percent lower than the June 2021 price of $865,000, but 19.6 percent higher compared to the July 2020 price of $719,000.

July 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
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“The California housing market continues to normalize from the white-hot conditions we experienced at the height of the pandemic with both sales and prices moderating as we slowly transition from the peak home-buying season into the fall,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh. “The market remains solid, however, as sales were still the second highest level for a July in the last six years, and the statewide median price continues to perform above last year’s level by double-digits. Housing supply, while improved, remains tight and market competition is still heated with homes flying off the market in record time.”

“Despite dipping slightly from its record peak set in June, California’s median price remains elevated as supply constraints continue to provide upward pressure to support home prices,” said Jordan Levine, C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist. “However, home prices should ease as housing inventory improves in the third quarter and the market continues to normalize during the traditional off-season.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s July 2021 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, all major regions posted a dip in sales from a year ago, when home sales began to surge as mortgage rates continued their downward trend. San Francisco Bay Area (-1.4 percent) and Southern California (-1.4 percent) held up relatively well, but more affordable counties within the regions such as Napa (-36.9 percent), Solano (-14.7 percent) and San Bernardino (-13.2 percent) also recorded sharp declines from a year ago.

-- Active listings in California in July 2021 reached the highest level since last October 2020, signaling continuous improvement in the state’s housing supply condition. The number of for-sale properties increased 15.4 percent in July 2021 from June 2021 as more homes were being listed on the market. Despite an increase in total active listings in July, new listings added in the month dipped slightly for the first time after gaining year-over-year for four straight months. New active listings inched up by 0.7 percent from June 2021 to July 2021 percent but dipped on a year-over-year basis from July 2020 by 0.9 percent. Housing supply typically climbs during this time of the year and remains on an upward trend until late July-to-early August.

-- The imbalance between supply and demand continued to heat up the market, with many buyers offering sales bids over the asking price. In July, more than 70 percent of homes sold above their asking price, making it the tenth consecutive month since September 2020 that more than half of homes sold above their asking price.

-- Statewide, the unsold inventory of available homes for sale improved slightly from 1.7 months in June 2021 to 1.9 months in July 2021, but remained sharply below last year’s level of 2.1 months for July 2020. Inventory levels measured in months indicate the number it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

July 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
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-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sales in July 2021 also improved slightly to 1.7 months, compared to 1.5 months in June 2021, but below last year’s level of 1.9 months in July 2020.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was eight days in July 2021, which was the same number for June 2021, down from 17 days in July 2020. The eight-day figure compares to seven days in May 2021 and April 2021. Prior to setting record low numbers this year, the previous statewide record was nine days in November 2020.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was seven days in July 2021. That number compares to six days in June 2021, seven days in May 2021, six days in April 2021 and March 2021 and seven days in February 2021 and January 2021, as well as eight days in December 2020 and seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in July 2020 was 10 days. The median represents a timeframe when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price radio was 103.8 percent in July 2021 and 100 percent in July 2020. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.87 percent in July, down from 2.98 percent in July 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.49 percent, compared to 3.02 percent in July 2020.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

Six Days to sell a home in San Diego, eight days statewide

Posted by Rick Griffin on Aug 2, 2021 8:00:51 AM

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Despite an impressive performance in the first six months of the year, momentum appeared to be slowing for the California housing market with existing home sales in June dipping for the second month in a row.

According to the monthly home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), home sales statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate were 2.2 percent lower in June 2021, when 436,020 homes were sold, compared to May 2021, when 445,600 homes were sold. However, home sales increased 28.3 percent in June 2021, compared to June 2020, when 339,910 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

With strong sales growth in June, the state housing market ended the first half of the year with a year-to-date home sales increase of 33.6 percent.

Monthly numbers for closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California is based on information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the June pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

In San Diego, home sales in June 2021 were 16 percent higher compared to May 2021, and 29.2 percent higher than June 2020.

Meanwhile, home prices continued to increase in June 2021.

Statewide, the median price for a single-family detached home in June set a new record high for the fourth straight month. The median price increased slightly by 0.2 percent on a month-to-month basis to $819,630 in June 2021, up from $818,260 in May 2021, and 30.9 percent from the $626,170 price recorded in June 2020.

June 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
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The median price in California remained above the $800,000 benchmark for the third consecutive month. The median represents the point at which half of homes sell above a price, and the other half below it.

The pace of growth in home prices appeared to be decelerating, as the change between May and June remained below one percent, and the increase was the smallest in the past four months. On a month-to-month basis, the statewide median price increase in June 2021 was slightly below the average May-to-June growth rate of 1.0 percent observed between 1979 and 2020.

In San Diego, the median price for a single-family detached home in June 2021 reached a new record of $865,000, which was 1.6 percent higher than the May 2021 price of $851,000 and 27.6 percent higher compared to the June 2020 price of $678,000.

“We’re starting to see what a difference just a slight uptick in inventory and listings can do to help lessen the buying frenzy and create a sense of normalcy,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh. “The market is still extremely competitive, with 70 percent of homes selling above list price; however, the number of new listings increased in June, and both the share of listings with a reduced price and median reduction amount increased, giving buyers more opportunities to purchase.”

 â€śOn a year-over-year basis, the statewide median price increased more than 30 percent for the third consecutive month. Tight supply, low rates and the change in the mix of sales continue to be the primary factors pushing up home prices to record levels,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "However, we are expecting price growth to slow from this point on as the top end of the market begins moderating. With pending sales down for the first time in 14 months, closed sales – which have been declined 5 out of the last 6 months – will likely remain lackluster as the market enters the second half of the year.”  

Other key points from C.A.R.’s June 2021 resale housing report included:

-- Home sales in June for four of the five major regions in the state set new record-high median prices in June, with each region increasing by more than 20 percent from a year ago. The San Francisco Bay Area continue to grow at the fastest pace with a year-over-year gain of 35.0 percent, followed by Southern California (30.3 percent), the Central Valley (23.8 percent), the Far North (22.0 percent) and the Central Coast (20.8 percent).

-- Sales growth statewide in the higher-priced markets remained strong in June 2021, while the number of sales of lower-priced properties remained below last year’s levels. The million-dollar market increased in demand by triple digits in a year-over-year comparison, with sales of homes priced $2 million and above surging 141 percent from a year ago. In contrast, sales of homes priced below $300,000 continued to fall precipitously with the year-over-year growth rate declining 48 percent in June. Tight housing supply continues to be the primary constraining factor for sales in the lower price segment. More homes were sold in the million-dollar market than the sub-$500k market in the 2021 second quarter of 2021, a condition that has not been observed in California in the past.

-- Active listings in California in June 2021 reached the highest level since last October 2020, signaling an improvement in the state’s housing supply condition. The number of for-sale properties increased 15.4 percent in June 2021, compared to May 2021, as more homes were being listed on the market. New active listings, while still down 12.3 percent from two years ago, increased in both a month-over-month basis and year-over-year basis by around 8 percent for June 2021. Housing supply typically climbs during this time of the year and remains on an upward trend throughout the late July-early August timeframe.

-- Statewide, the unsold inventory of available homes for sale decreased to 1.7 months in June 2021, compared to 1.8 months in May 2021, and below last year’s level of 2.7 months for June 2020. Inventory levels measured in months indicate the number it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sales in June 2021 also decreased to 1.5 months, compared to 1.6 months in May 2021, and below last year’s level of 2.2 months in June 2020.

June 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
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-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was eight days in June 2021, compared to seven days in May 2021, which was the same number in April 2021, down from 21 days in June 2020. The eight-day figure compares to 10 days in February 2021, 11 days in January 2021, 11 days in December 2020, nine days in November 2020, 10 days in October 2020, 11 days in September 2020 and 15 days in March 2020. Prior to setting record low numbers this year, the previous statewide record was nine days in November 2020.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was six days in June 2021. That number compares to seven days in May 2021, six days in April 2021 and March 2021 and seven days in February 2021 and January 2021, as well as eight days in December 2020 and seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in June 2020 was 12 days. The median represents a timeframe when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price radio posted a record high in June 2021 of 104.1 percent, compared to 99.5 percent in June 2020. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.98 percent in June, down from 3.16 percent in June 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.56 percent, compared to 3.09 percent in June 2020.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

San Diego housing market takes a slight breather from buyer fatigue.

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jun 25, 2021 3:27:06 PM

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After months of breakneck market competition, the California housing market experienced a mild case of homebuyer fatigue in May with a slight decrease in home sales from April. However, home prices continued to increase in May, setting another record high.

According to the monthly home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), home sales statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate were down 2.7 percent in May 2021, when 445,660 homes were sold, compared to April 2021, when 458,170 homes were sold. However, homes sales increased 86.7 percent in May 2021, compared to May 2020, when 238,740 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

The sharp year-over-year sales jump was expected as the housing market was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown last year, when home sales dropped to their lowest level since the Great Recession.

The monthly number for closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California is based on information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

In San Diego, home sales in May 2021 also were down 3.2 percent, compared to April 2021, but up 76.1 percent from May 2020.

May 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
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Meanwhile, home prices continued to increase in May 2021. Statewide, the median price for a single-family detached home inched up 0.5 percent from $814,010 in April 2021 to set a new record of $818,260 in May 2021. The figure marked a whopping 39.1 percent year-over-year increase since May 2020, when the statewide median home price was $588,070. The year-over-year price gain was the highest ever recorded, and it was the second straight month that the state recorded an annual increase of over 30 percent. 

Robust demand of higher-priced properties contributed to the record-setting statewide median price. With million-dollar home sales surging more than 200 percent from May 2020, its market share is nearly double what it was a year ago when it was at 15.6 percent. More million-dollar properties were sold in the past couple of months than homes priced below $500,000.          

In San Diego, the median price for a single-family detached home in May 2021 reached $851,000, which was 3.1 percent higher than the April 2021 price of $825,120 and 29.9 percent higher compared to the May 2020 price of $655,000.

“The overheated housing market is showing signs of a much-needed cooling and could be a sign of waning buyer interest as the torrid pace of home price increases and buyer fatigue adversely affected demand,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh. “We’re seeing many would-be buyers taking a break and hoping to see more listings as the economy reopens and prospective sellers list their homes for sale.”

“A lack of housing inventory continues to push up prices, and modestly higher interest rates, increased competition, and declining affordability have caused some buyers to become discouraged. Despite strong growth rates, the level of home sales has fallen on a monthly basis in four of the last five months,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “Additionally, pending sales data for May, which was virtually unchanged from April, suggests further slowing in coming months. Fortunately, new listings have finally started to rise, which could help to sustain a higher level of home sales deeper into summer by providing much-needed supply.”    

Other key points from C.A.R.’s May 2021 resale housing report included:

-- Home sales in May for all major regions in the state experienced at least a 44 percent year-over-year growth in sales in May, with the Central Coast notching the biggest jump at 111.8 percent and sales in all four counties in that region surging by more than 99 percent. The San Francisco Bay Area also increased in sales by triple-digits (104.6 percent) from last year, followed by Southern California (80 percent), the Far North (58.6 percent), and the Central Valley (44 percent).

-- Sales growth statewide in the higher-priced markets remained strong in May 2021, while home sales in the lower-end continued to be lackluster. Demand in the million-dollar segment increased by more than 200 percent year-over-year, with sales of homes priced $2 million and higher surging over 300 percent from a year ago. On the other hand, sales of properties priced below $300,000 continued to fall precipitously, with the year-over-year sales dropping 34 percent in May. Tight housing supply continues to be the primary factor constraining sales in the lower price segment.

-- Three out of five major regions reached new record high median prices in May, with each region growing more than 20 percent from a year ago. The San Francisco Bay Area had the highest year-over-year gain of 38.9 percent, followed by Southern California (33.1 percent), the Central Coast (32.6 percent), the Central Valley (27.1 percent), and the Far North (22.1 percent).

-- Active listings in California reached the highest level in six months after a 6.6 percent monthly increase in May and are expected to continue inching higher, following the seasonal pattern. Housing supply typically climbs during this time of the year and usually remains on an upward trend through late July and early August. The pace of growth on a month-to-month basis is on par with the average growth rate of 6.7 percent from April to May recorded between 2015 and 2019.

May 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

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-- Statewide, the unsold inventory of available homes for sale improved slightly to 1.8 months in May 2021, compared to 1.6 months in April 2021, but remained sharply below last year’s level of 4.3 months for May 2020. The month-over-month rise in inventory is partly due a slight increase in housing supply, but a slowdown in housing demand in May also contributed to a bump in the index. Inventory levels measured in months indicate the number it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sales in May 2021 improved slightly to 1.6 months, compared to 1.5 months in April 2021, but was sharply below the 3.5 months figure posted for May 2020.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home hit another record low of seven days in May 2021, which was the same number in April 2021, down from 17 days in May 2020. The seven-day figure is lower than the eight days in March 2021, previously the lowest ever recorded. The eight-day figure compared to 10 days in February 2021, 11 days in January 2021, 11 days in December 2020, nine days in November 2020, 10 days in October 2020, 11 days in September 2020 and 15 days in March 2020. Prior to setting record low numbers this year, the previous statewide record was nine days in November 2020.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was seven days in May 2021. That number compares to six days in April 2021 and March 2021 and seven days in February 2021 and January 2021, as well as eight days in December 2020 and seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in May 2020 was 11 days.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.96 percent in May, down from 3.23 percent in May 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.62 percent, compared to 3.16 percent in May 2020.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

Heated market and a shortage of homes for sale continue upward

Posted by Rick Griffin on May 23, 2021 7:00:00 AM

The California housing market reached a milestone in April that the San Diego market already has experienced.

The state’s median home price for an existing, single-family detached home exceeded the $800,000 benchmark for the first time ever in April 2021, according to the monthly home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The median price represents the point at which half of homes sell above a price, and the other half below it.

Heated market conditions and a shortage of homes for sale continued to put upward pressure on home prices in the state in April, driving California’s median price to $813,980, almost as high as San Diego’s April monthly figure of $825,120.

The statewide median home price set a new record high in April 2021, breaking the previous record set in March 2021. The statewide median home price of $813,980 in April 2021 was 7.2 percent higher compared to $758,990 in March 2021 and 34.2 percent higher when compared to the $606,410 figure for April 2020.

April 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
blog_210521_chart1

The year-over-year price gain was the highest ever recorded, and it was the first time since June 2013 that the state recorded an annual increase of more than 30 percent. 

San Diego’s median price for a single-family detached home of $825,120 in April 2021 was 3.1 percent higher than the median home price of $800,000 in March 2021 and 23 percent higher compared to $671,000 in April 2020.

Meanwhile, California home sales in April 2021 soared from last year’s pandemic-level lows with the start of the spring home buying season.

Home sales in the state increased on a monthly basis for the third consecutive month, rising 2.6 percent to 458,170 homes from 446,410 homes in March 2021 and up 65.1 percent from April 2020, when 277,440 homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the April pace throughout the year.

The sharp sales jump in April 2021 was expected following last year’s pandemic shutdown when home sales dropped more than 30 percent from the previous April.  Year-to-date statewide home sales were up 26.2 percent in April 2021.

In San Diego County, the number of home sales in April 2021 was 10.5 percent higher compared to March 2021, and 55.2 percent higher than April 2020.

“California continues to experience one of the hottest housing markets as homes sell at the fastest pace ever, with the share of homes sold above asking price, the price per square foot and the sales-to-list price all at record highs, while active listings remain at historic lows,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh, vice president and manager of the Compass San Jose office. “The high demand and shortage of homes for sale, driven by these market factors, continued to drive up home prices and shatter the record-high set just last month.”

“Not only do skyrocketing home prices threaten already-low homeownership levels and make it harder for those who don’t already have a home to purchase one, it also brings to question the sustainability of this market cycle,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “As vaccination rates increase and the state reopens fully, higher home prices will hopefully entice prospective sellers who have held off putting their homes on the market during the pandemic to feel more comfortable listing their homes for sale, which would alleviate pressure on home prices.”   

Other key points from C.A.R.’s April 2021 resale housing report included:

-- Home sales in April from a regional perspective saw sharp gains with each region growing more than 38 percent from last year. The San Francisco Bay Area had the highest year-over-year increase of 101.4 percent, with five of its nine counties growing by triple digits from a year ago. The Central Coast came in second with an increase of 81.7 percent, followed by Southern California (65.5 percent), the Central Valley (39.8 percent), and the Far North (38.8 percent).

-- All but two of the counties tracked by CAR, 49 of 51, recorded a year-over-year sales increase in April, with 31 counties increasing more than 50 percent from a year ago, and 11 counties growing by triple digits. Six of the counties with an annual growth rate of more than 100 percent had a median price above $1 million in April 2021. Counties with an increase from last year had an average gain of 70.7 percent in April 2021, compared to 32.9 percent in March.

-- Sales growth in California in April 2021 remained concentrated in higher-priced markets, while home sales in the lower-end continued a lackluster performance. The million-dollar segment in April increased in demand by more than 200 percent in year-over-year comparisons, with sales of homes priced $2 million and higher surging more than 300 percent from a year ago. Meanwhile, sales of properties priced below $300,000 continued to fall precipitously, with the year-over-year growth rate dropping 34 percent in April 2021, compared to April 2020. Tight housing supply continues to be the primary constraining factor for fewer sales in the lower-price category.

-- New record median prices were set in all major regions in April 2021, with each region growing more than 20 percent from April 2020. The Central Coast region continued to have the highest year-over-year gain of 40.8 percent, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (35.6 percent), Southern California (28.6 percent), the Central Valley (25.5 percent) and the Far North (22.8 percent).

-- Active listings in California fell more than 50 percent in April 2021 from April 2020, marking four straight months when the housing supply was cut in half from the same month a year ago.. The ongoing decline in inventory is due to the surge in demand over the past 10 months, as well as a lack of new listings. While new active listings in April 2021 experienced robust year-over-year growth compared to April 2020, when the government-imposed pandemic shutdown was underway, the level of newly added supply is still significantly below pre-pandemic levels. On a month-to-month basis, for-sale properties inched up by 7.4 percent in April 2021, compared to March 2021, and should climb further in the coming months if the market follows its typical seasonal pattern.

-- Statewide, the unsold inventory of available homes for sale dropped to 1.6 months in April 2021 from 1.7 months in March 2021 and was down sharply from April 2020, when there was 3.4 months of housing inventory. Inventory levels measured in months indicate the number it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

April 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
blog_210521_chart2

-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sales in April 2021 remained at 1.5 months, the same number for March 2021, compared to 1.8 months in both February 2021 and January 2021 and 2.7 months in April 2020.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home hit another record low of seven days in April 2021, down from 13 days in April 2020. The seven-day figure is lower than the eight days in March 2021, previously the lowest ever recorded. The eight-day figure compared to 10 days in February 2021, 11 days in January 2021, 11 days in December 2020, nine days in November 2020, 10 days in October 2020, 11 days in September 2020 and 15 days in March 2020. Prior to setting record low numbers in March and April 2021, the previous statewide record was nine days in November 2020.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was six days in April 2021, which was the same number in March 2021. That number compares to seven days in both February 2021 and January 2021, as well as eight days in December 2020 and seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in April 2020 was eight days.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.06 percent in April, down from 3.31 percent in April 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.81 percent, compared to 3.31 percent in April 2020.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

RECORD MEDIAN HOME PRICES FOR BOTH CALIFORNIA AND SAN DIEGO IN MARCH

Posted by Rick Griffin on Apr 28, 2021 8:00:00 PM

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Fierce competition in the California housing market in March drove the state’s median home price to a new record high while sales remained solid heading into the spring homebuying season, according to the monthly home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The statewide median home price in March reached a new all-time high of $758,990.

Similarly, the median home price in San Diego in March rose to a new record of $800,000.

In addition, nearly two-thirds or 63 percent of homes sold above the asking price in March 2021, reflecting the combination of intense demand and short supply. California already had set a record for share of home selling over listing price at 56 percent in February 2021.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 446,410 in March 2021, down 3.5 percent from 462,720 in February 2021 but were up 19.7 percent from March 2020, when 373,070 homes were sold. The annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year.

The monthly sales decline was the third in a row, and the sales pace was the lowest since last July. The nearly 20 percent sales gain was attributed to weak home sales a year ago as the coronavirus outbreak abruptly halted the real estate market and economy, CAR said.  

March 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
blog_210427_chart1

Meanwhile, California’s median home price set another new record high in March 2021 as the statewide median price surged nearly 24 percent from a year ago. The statewide median home price in March 2021 climbed 8.6 percent on a month-to-month basis to $758,990, up from $699,000 in February 2021 and up 23.9 percent from the $612,440 recorded in March 2020. 

The year-over-year statewide gain, from March 2020 to March 2021, was the highest since October 2013 and it was the eighth straight month that California’s median price registered a double-digit gain.

In San Diego County, the number of home sales in March 2021 was 29.3 percent higher compared to February 2021 and 18.1 percent higher compared to March 2020.

San Diego’s median price for a single-family detached home in March 2021 was a record high of $800,000, which was $35,000 or 4.6 percent higher than the median home price of $765,000 in February 2021 and 18.5 percent higher compared to $675,000 in March 2020.

The median price represents the point at which half of homes sell above a price, and the other half below it.

“While intense homebuying interest is the engine that continues to drive housing demand, a shortage of homes for sales is the rocket fuel pushing prices higher across the state. A lack of homes for sale is creating unprecedented market competition, leading to a record share of homes selling above asking price in March,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh, vice president and manager of the Compass San Jose office. “With more of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions being lifted in the coming months as we move into the spring home buying season, we should see home sales improve as more prospective home sellers feel comfortable listing their homes for sale.” 

“The market sentiment is drastically different today compared to a year ago at the onset of the pandemic,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With the U.S. economy positioned to grow at the fastest pace since the early 1980s and mortgage rates trending down again in the past week, consumer confidence will improve further, so in the coming months, we should continue to see a solid bounce-back from last year as the market maintains its momentum.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s March 2021 resale housing report included:

-- Home sales in March from a regional perspective experienced a double-digit sales surge compared to a year ago. The San Francisco Bay Area had the highest year-over-year gain, at a growth rate of 35.0 percent from March 2020. The Central Coast (31.8 percent), Far North (26.1 percent), and Southern California regions (23.3 percent) experienced a sales increase of more than 20 percent from last year.

-- Home sales in resort markets remained robust in March, with Big Bear, Lake Arrowhead and South Lake Tahoe all increasing more than 50 percent from a year ago. South Lake Tahoe was particularly strong in March 2021 with sales rising 128.1 percent compared to March 2020. Lake Arrowhead also had a strong month of March with sales growing near triple-digits year-over-year, while Big Bear increased by 54.8 percent and Mammoth Lakes jumped by 16.7 percent.

March 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
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-- All major regions recorded double-digit increases in the median price increases from last year. The Central Coast region posted the highest year-over-year growth rate of 26.4 percent, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (21.3 percent), Southern California (20.5 percent), the Central Valley (18.6 percent) and the Far North (12.4 percent).

-- All 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. reported a gain in median price on a year-over-year basis, with 45 of them increasing more than 10 percent.

-- Active listings statewide fell 51.1 percent in a comparison between March 2021 and March 2020. It was the third consecutive month that listings declined more than 50 percent. On a month-to-month basis, for-sale properties inched up by 5.3 percent in March.

-- The available supply of homes for sale continued to tighten up across the state, with all major regions near record low levels. Forty-nine of the 51 counties covered by C.A.R. recorded a decline in active listings on a year-over-year basis in March, and 30 of them dropped more than half from levels a year ago.

-- Statewide, the unsold inventory of available homes for sale dropped to 1.6 months in March from 2.0 months in February and was down sharply from a year ago, when there was 2.7 months of housing inventory. Inventory levels measured in months indicate the number it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sales in March 2021 dropped to 1.5 months, compared to 1.8 months in both February 2021 and January 2021 and 2.4 months in March 2020.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in March 2021 hit a record of eight days, the lowest every recorded. The eight-day figure compared to 10 days in February 2021, 11 days in January 2021, 11 days in December 2020, nine days in November 2020, 10 days in October 2020, 11 days in September 2020 and 15 days in March 2020. Prior to March 2021, the previous statewide record was nine days in November 2020.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was six days in March 2021. That number compares to seven days in both February 2021 and January 2021, as well as eight days in December 2020 and seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in March 2020 was 10 days.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.08 percent in March, down from 3.45 percent in March 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.78 percent, compared to 3.16 percent in March 2020.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

AFFILIATE, BROKER/OFFICE MANAGER & REALTOR® OF THE YEAR AWARDS

Posted by Rick Griffin on Mar 19, 2021 4:16:04 PM

2020 REALTOR, Broker/Office Manager, Affiliate of the year

Congratulations to this year’s recipients of PSAR 2020's Industry Awards, including REALTOR® of the Year, Broker/Office Manager of the Year and Affiliate of the Year.

Honoring PSAR members who empower all REALTORS® through selfless contributions to our industry
(drum roll, please):

2020 REALTOR® of the Year Award recipients:
Rafael Perez, Central
Anthony Andaya, East
Yvonne Cromer, South

2020 Broker/Office Manager of the Year Award recipients:
Lupe Soto, Central
Carey Guthrie, East
Nikki Coppa, South

2020 Affiliate of the Year Award recipients:
Jake Holmes, Central
Ted Przybylek, East
Martha Garcia, South

More Criteria Information and Past Recipients

These award recipients were announced at this week’s online party celebration held in honor of these selfless members and also of the the more than 300 REALTOR® members who recently received a Real Estate Achievement and Leadership (R.E.A.L.) award. The party was hosted by PSAR’s Young Professional Network (YPN) group,

The R.E.A.L. awards program recognized PSAR’s top producing agents and brokers based on sales volume dollars or units sold, including listings or sales units entered into the MLS and closed in 2020. R.E.A.L. awards were presented to PSAR’s top 1%, 3%, 5% and 10% REALTORS®.

The primary mission of the Pacific Southwest Association of REALTORS® (PSAR) is to empower REALTORS® to achieve their business goals. The R.E.A.L. awards are a tangible recognition of the highest level of REALTORS® business achievement by agents, brokers and teams over the prior year.

“A hearty congratulations to everyone who received a 2020 R.E.A.L. Award plus these special annual award winners,” said Ditas Yamane, 2021 PSAR President. “PSAR's mission is to empower REALTORS® to flourish while being accountable to each other, our clients, and our community. All these award winners embody our mission. I am so very proud of everyone.”

___________________________

Since 1928, the Pacific Southwest Association of REALTORS® has played a significant role in shaping the history, growth and development of the Real Estate industry in San Diego County.

Topics: Announcements, Events, Leadership

SAN DIEGO HOME SALES 6% HIGHER SINCE LAST MONTH

Posted by Rick Griffin on Mar 19, 2021 3:14:32 PM

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California’s home sales and prices eased in February as mortgage rates spiked, while strong buying interest continued and tight housing supply restrained demand, especially in more affordable markets.

According to its monthly home sales and price report released this week by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), the state’s housing market has recently encountered some speed-bumps due to rising mortgage interest rates.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 462,720 in February 2021, which was down 4.5 percent from 484,760 in January 2021, but 9.7 percent higher from February 2020, when 421,670 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

It was the eighth straight month for year-over-year gain in home sales. However, February’s nearly 10 percent home sales increase from a year ago was the smallest gain in the past seven months. Year-to-date statewide home sales were up 15.9 percent in February.

The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the February pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Meanwhile, California’s median home price in February 2021 was essentially unchanged from January 2021, but was 20.6 percent higher than in the $579,770 figure for February 2020, recording the first back-to-back 20 percent yearly increase since February 2014. The statewide median home price dipped 0.1 percent on a month-to-month basis to $699,000 in February 2021, down from $699,920 in January 2021.

February 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

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The double-digit statewide increase from last year was the seventh in a row and the second largest since February 2014.

In San Diego County, February 2021 home sales were 6.1 percent higher, compared to January 2021, and 12.8 percent higher compared to February 2020.

San Diego’s median price for a single-family detached home was $765,000 in February 2021, a 4.8 percent increase from $730,000 in January 2021, and a 14.2 percent increase from $670,000 in February 2020.

The median price represents the point at which half of homes sell above a price, and the other half below it.

“The housing market has been cruising at a robust pace since the second half of 2020 but has encountered some speed-bumps recently as rates began to rise,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh, vice president and manager of the Compass San Jose office. “While higher rates may slow growth in home sales temporarily, the major roadblock in the long run is a shortage of homes for sale. With inventory dropping more than a half from a year ago, the market will soften in the second half of 2021 if we don’t see enough homes come on the market to meet demand.”   

“The upward movement in rates has called into question whether the market will sustain its momentum going into the spring homebuying season,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “While rates are off their record lows, they are still relatively low by historical standards. Recent increases in mortgage rates will likely slow the pace of price growth in the coming months but will also motivate those who truly want to buy to enter the market before rates start moving further up.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s February 2021 resale housing report included:

-- Home sales from a regional perspective surged in February, compared to a year ago. The Central Coast region posted the highest year-over-year sales gain, with a growth rate of 22.4 percent. The Far North (17.3 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (16.1 percent), and Southern California (10.5 percent) regions also experienced double-digit year-over-year increases in sales from a year ago.

-- Resort marks continued to perform well in February. Sales growth in the resort markets was relatively strong when compared to the rest of California. South Lake Tahoe (56.7 percent), Lake Arrowhead (44.1 percent), and Big Bear (36.1 percent) all experienced sales increases of more than 35 percent from a year ago. The exception was Mammoth Lakes were sales were flat in February 2021. However, aggregated sales for the first two months of 2021 in mountain resort communities are up 40 percent from the same period last year.

-- All major regions recorded double-digit increases in the median price increased from last year with the San Francisco Bay Area growing the strongest at 26.5 percent. The year-over-year increase in the Bay Area’s median price was the largest since September 2013, and it helped to set a new record high in the median price for the Bay Area. The Central Valley region had the second highest price growth rate of all regions with its median price increasing 19.1 percent year-over-year in February, followed by Southern California (16.4 percent), the Central Coast (15.9 percent) and the Far North (11.7 percent).

-- Active listings statewide fell 52.5 percent in February 2021, compared to February 2021. It was a decline of more than 40 percent on a year-over-year basis for the eighth consecutive month. On a month-to-month basis, for-sale properties inched up slightly by 0.4 percent in February 2021 and should climb further in the coming months as the market prepares for the spring homebuying season and the pandemic situation continues to improve.

-- The unsold inventory of available homes for sale inched higher to 2.0 months in February 2021, from 1.9 months in January 2021. However, inventory levels in February 2021 were sharply lower than in February 2020, when there was 3.6 months of housing inventory. Inventory levels measured in months refers to the number it would take for the current supply of available homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

February 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

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-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sale remained at 1.8 months for February 2021, which was the same figure for January 2021. That compares to 1.2 months in December 2020, 1.6 months in November 2020, 1.8 months in October 2020 and 3.0 months in February 2020.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 10 days in February 2021, compared to a revised 11 days in January 2021, 11 days in December 2020, nine days in November 2020, 10 days in October 2020, 11 days in September 2020 and 23 days in February 2020. The nine-day November 2020 statewide figure was the lowest ever recorded.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was seven days in February 2021, which was the same figure for January 2021. That compares to eight days in December 2020, seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in February 2021 was 12 days.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.81 percent in February, down from 3.47 percent in February 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.83 percent, compared to 3.26 percent in February 2020.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

2021 BEGINS WITH DOUBLE-DIGIT PRICE AND SALES GROWTH COMPARED TO 2020

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 19, 2021 4:49:45 PM

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California’s housing market kicked off the New Year on a positive note in January 2021 with double-digit price and sales growth in year-over-year comparisons.

According to its monthly home sales and price report released Friday, February 19th, by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), the momentum from 2020 is continuing into 2021.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 484,730 units in January 2021, which was down 4.9 percent from 509,750 units in December 2020 but up 22.5 percent from 395,700 units in January 2020.

The year-over-year, statewide double-digit sales gain posted in January 2021 was the sixth consecutive month in a row and the third straight month for an increase in sales of more than 20 percent from a year ago.

Meanwhile, California’s median home price in January 2021 dipped below the $700,000 benchmark after hitting a record high in December 2020. The statewide median home price declined 2.5 percent on a month-to-month basis to $699,890 in January 2021, down from $717,930 in December 2020. In contrast, the median home price in January 2021 was 21.7 percent higher compared to the $575,160 priced recorded in January 2020.

The double-digit median price increase from last year was the sixth month in a row and the largest since February 2014. Low rates and tight supply are continuing to push up home prices, said C.A.R.

In San Diego County, January 2021 home sales were 31.7 percent lower, compared to December 2020, but 9.9 percent higher compared to January 2020.

San Diego’s median price for a single-family detached home was the same amount, $730,000, for both January 2021 and December 2020. Mirroring the statewide double-digit trend, the January 2021 price in San Diego County was 10.06 percent higher than the January 2020 price of $660,000.

January 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
blog_210220_chart1

“Despite an economy that’s slow to recover, the momentum from late last year continued into January, driven by strong growth in California’s core housing markets, especially in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the higher cost areas experienced the most sales growth,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh, vice president and manager of the Compass San Jose office. “Home prices continued to power through the traditional slow season in January with the largest annual price gain in nearly seven years.”

“With the COVID-19 vaccine continuing to roll out, another fiscal stimulus relief package likely on the way and historically low interest rates, the housing market will continue to thrive,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “The market outlook is stronger than previously projected as buyer demand continues to outstrip supply, but we do expect the current robust market growth to decelerate later this year as the housing shortage intensifies.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s January 2021 resale housing report included:

-- Home sales from a regional perspective continued to record healthy year-over-year gains in nearly all major regions. The San Francisco Bay Area had the highest year-over-year growth rate at a gain of 31.8 percent over last January. The Central Coast (19.9 percent) and Southern California (13.5 percent) regions also remained strong and experienced double-digit, year-over-year sales increases.

-- More than 80 percent of all counties, 42 of 51 that are tracked by C.A.R., recorded a year-over-year increase in closed sales, with both Calaveras and Mariposa gaining the most from last year at 69.2 percent, followed by Alameda (53.6 percent), and San Benito (50 percent). Counties with an increase from last year averaged a gain of 22.7 percent in January, compared to 36.1 percent in December.

-- Median home prices from a regional perspective also posted double-digit increases in January 2021, with the San Francisco Bay Area growing the fastest at 20.2 percent. The Central Coast region had another strong month, increasing18.6 percent from January 2020, followed by Southern California (15.0 percent), the Central Valley (14.5 percent), and the Far North (10.5 percent).

-- Forty-seven of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. reported a gain in price on a year-over-year basis, with 40 of them increasing more than 10 percent.

-- Active listings fell 53.4 percent in January 2021, compared to January 2020. It was the eighth straight month for a decline and more than 40 percent decrease on a year-to-year basis. On a month-to-month basis, for-sale properties dropped 10.7 percent in January 2021.

-- Homeowners reluctant to list their homes for sale during the pandemic contributed to a shortage of active listings. The unsold inventory of available homes for sale remained extremely low at 1.5 months in January 2021, compared to 1.3 months in December 2020 and 3.4 months in January 2020. Inventory levels measured in months refers to the number it would take for the current supply of available homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- In San Diego County, the inventory of available homes for sale in January 2021 was 1.8 months, compared to 1.2 months in December 2020, 1.6 months in November 2020, 1.8 months in October 2020 and 3.0 months in January 2020.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 12 days in January 2021, compared to 11 days in December 2020, nine days in November 2020, 10 days in October 2020, 11 days in September 2020 and 31 days in January 2020. The nine-day November 2020 figure was the lowest ever recorded.

January 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
blog_210220_chart2

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was seven days in January 2021, compared to eight days in December 2020, seven days in November, October and September 2020. The timeframe a year ago in January 2020 was 23 days. The January 2021 seven-day figure also compares to eight days in August 2020, 10 days in July 2020, 12 days in June 2020, 11 days in May 2020, eight days in April 2020, 10 days in March 2020 and 12 days in February 2020.

-- Resort communities sustained their momentum going into 2021, as sales continue to outpace the rest of state. Big Bear and Mammoth Lakes experienced year-over-year, triple-digit gains of 176.2 percent and 150 percent, respectively, while South Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lake both had sales growth rates of more than 30 percent.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.74 percent in January 2021, down from 3.62 percent in January 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.87 percent, compared to 3.33 percent in January 2020.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- CoreLogic is forecasting home prices in San Diego will increase by 8.3 percent in 2021, which will be among the highest in the nation. Among the reasons: Record low mortgage rates and demand from stay-at-home workers who have been priced out in other areas, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, who are moving to San Diego for a better deal.

-- Realtor.com reports the number of homes for sale in San Diego in January 2021 was down by 21.1 percent compared to January 2020. Nationwide, inventory plunged 42.6 percent from a year ago. Realtor.com also said San Diego’s median home price was $850,000 in January 2021, representing a 15.7 percent over-over-year increase. If January is any indication, home shoppers are in for another fiercely competitive season this spring with record low inventory pushing prices higher and homes selling more quickly.

-- Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes rose again last month, a sign that the housing market’s strong momentum from 2020 may be carrying over into this year. Existing U.S. home sales rose 0.6 percent in January from the previous month to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 6.69 million annualized units, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. Sales jumped 23.7 percent from a year earlier. It was the strongest sales pace since October and the second highest since 2006, the NAR said.

-- The value of a typical single-family home in San Diego has jumped 12.5 percent in a year, according to a recent Zillow report. Zillow’s median price in December 2020 of $678,665 for a San Diego home was 12.5 percent higher in a year-over-year comparison, as well as 1.7 percent higher than November 2020 and 5.1 percent higher than the 2020 third quarter. Nationwide, home value growth was 3.2 percent in the 2020 fourth quarter, which was the highest since Zillow began its Home Value Index in 1996.

-- According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for November 2020, the most recent statistics available, home prices in the San Diego metropolitan area were up 12.3 percent in a year, which was the third highest percentage in the nation behind Phoenix at 13.8 percent and Seattle at 12.7 percent. All 19 cities in the index were up significantly year-over-year, with analysts pointing to demand outstripping supply and record low interest rates as key drivers pushing up prices.

-- Redfin reports that San Diego had the second highest number of multiple offers on homes for sale in the U.S. in January 2021, with 77.1 of Redfin homes in a bidding war, second only to Salt Lake City’s 90 percent. Behind San Diego in Redfin transactions with multiple bidders included the Bay Area (77.1 percent with multiple bidders), Denver (73.9 percent) and Seattle (73.8 percent). Nationwide, 55.9 percent of Redfin offers for homes faced competition from at least two prospective buyers, up from a revised rate of 52.5 percent in December. January marked the ninth consecutive month in which more than half of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition.

-- One quarter (26 percent) of San Diegans who visited Redfin.com in the 2020 fourth quarter to shop for new homes were looking for properties in another city, Redfin reports. That’s the ninth highest percentage in the U.S., with New York City as the top outflow market. For those local residents wishing to leave San Diego, Los Angeles was the most popular destination while the top out-of-state destination was Phoenix. Redfin said the largest net inflow of new residents in the fourth quarter among U.S. cities included Austin, Texas, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Sacramento and Dallas.

-- The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that 5 million households nationwide failed to make their rent or mortgage payments in December 2020, indicating the economic recovery is sluggish. Rental property owners lost as much as $7.2 billion in revenue from missed payments in the 2020 fourth quarter, which was less than the $9.1 billion lost during the previous quarter.

-- The San Diego County Board of Supervisors recently approved the use of $52.2 million in state funding for emergency rental assistance in the wake of COVID-19. The latest round of funds is in addition to the $48.8 million in federal funds the board approved receipt of in January 2021. The county now will have more than $100 million in regional emergency rental assistance money available to help people struggling to pay their rent. The funds will be available only to county residents who don’t live in the cities of San Diego and Chula Vista because those jurisdictions have their own allocations.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

2021 HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS? C.A.R. ECONOMIST HAS THE INSIGHT!

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 12, 2021 4:40:55 PM

bl2021 Housing Market Update
A contingent of PSAR members recently gathered in a Zoom meeting for the purpose of gleaning a look into the future. It was provided via the “2021 Housing Market Outlook,” a presentation from Oscar Wei of the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Oscar Wei CAR photo

Wei is the Senior Economist and the Director of Research for C.A.R. In his capacity, he analyzes housing market conditions, consumer behavior, and public policy issues, using transactional data and survey research studies conducted by C.A.R. He has managerial responsibility for data mining and analyzing housing market statistics that are released to the public on a periodic basis.

Wei informed PSAR members they should expect the recovering economy to worsen before recovering and the pandemic will rage on during the recovery period. Wei said housing demand will remain robust as mortgage rates stay near record lows.

In 2021, Wei concludes that the tight housing supply will continue to impact the market and prices will rise in the first half of the year. He expects the rate of price increases will slow in the second half of the year.

Wei observed that the housing market is weathering the economic downturn better than it did during the Great Recession that began thirteen years ago. He stated this is so because most buyers who have purchased in recent years are more invested in their purchase and have stronger financial underpinnings than homebuyers who purchased prior to the housing market collapsed of 2007.

The year 2020 saw a ten-year high in the share of first-time buyers. Record-low interest rates have been fueling the market and many first-time buyers took advantage of cheaper costs of borrowing during this year’s home buying season.

Wei state that during the 2020 summer, two of five homes sold were to first-home buyers. He opined that this spike may have been due to fewer homeowners (i.e. repeat buyers) willing to sell and move during the pandemic.

This trend will likely taper off in 2021, as the momentum of first-time buyer demand will lessen as tight supply continues to drive up home prices.

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Wei described what the COVID-19 “new normal” in American looks like.

-- Owning a home has become more valued. A home is now more than just a livable shelter; it is a place in which to work due to the accommodations required by Covid guidelines. Those who work from home may need a bigger house if home office space is needed.

-- Remote working also means changing the “where” for homebuying. According to Zillow and the Harris Poll, three-quarters of those who work from home because of the coronavirus say they want to continue to work at home after Covid restrictions are lifted. Two-thirds say they would consider moving to a different house if given that option. Half of remote workers polled stated if they could continue to work at home, they would purchase homes farther from their company office, which would open up the secondary city real estate market

-- Retail and office spaces could help increase housing supply, states Wei, who cited Loopnet, UBS and Global Analytics. Due to the Covid impact, the U.S. retail industry appears to stand to lose 11 percent to 17 percent of its total store count by 2025. In the next five years, 100,000 retail stores will close nationwide, and the number of closed stores could reach 150,000. Within two years, 30 percent of the employee populace will work from home multiple days per week. Office space demand may decline as a result. Vacant retail and office space could be converted into residential units, helping to alleviate the shortage of available housing.

Wei;s outlook for the 2021 California housing market is as follows: Single-family home resales will total 425,500 units, a year-over-year increase of 3.3 percent; the median price of a single-family home in California will reach $688,400, an increase of 4.4 percent from 2020; a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 3.1 percent; the housing affordability index will be 31 percent. This index measures the percentage of home buyers who can afford to pay the $688,400 average price for an existing, median-priced, single-family home in the state.

Lower mortgage payments and stronger household finances will mean fewer defaults in 2021. Compared to those who purchased before the Great Recession, homebuyers in recent years have higher down-payments, fewer risky loans, lower borrowing costs and higher household income.

California’s unemployment rate will remain around 9 percent throughout 2021, and the population will grow from 40.1 million in 2020 to 40.3 million in 2021, a increase of 0.4 percent. The nationwide unemployment rate will be 7.1 percent in 2021, compared to 8.8 percent in 2020. Real Disposable Income will decrease by 3.5 percent in 2021, compared to a 6.3 percent increase in 2020.

Wei also commented on San Diego County market activity in 2020:

-- Most cities saw an increase in the number of home sales.

-- Homes in all local cities, except Coronado, sold above asking price in December 2020, which was not the case in December 2019.

-- Record low interest rates and tight supply pushed up local home prices.

-- Nearly all cities experienced at least double-digit gains in median home prices.

-- Supply in 2020 continued to worsen in San Diego.

Wei clarified that C.A.R.’s 2021 housing forecast is based on several key operating assumptions, including: COVID-19 vaccines will be readily available during the first half of the year, dampening a COVID surge; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow at a rate of 4.2 percent in 2021 (in comparison, GDP decreased an estimated 3.6 percent in 2020, compared to 2019); household income will grow by 3.3 percent in 2021; interest rates will average 3.1 percent in 2021; Housing inventory levels will remain unchanged from 2020; Foreclosures will comprise only 8 percent of sales.

Wei also contributes frequently to C.A.R.’s market analysis articles, Housing Matters Podcast and Housing Perspective. He has written about housing supply, distressed sales, housing tax policy, housing affordability, and many other topics relevant to the real estate industry.

Topics: Announcements

ROBERT CROMER HONORED FOR LEADERSHIP AS 2020 PSAR PRESIDENT

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 5, 2021 4:27:22 PM

We all know that 2020 was a unique and daunting year, led by the world-wide pandemic that touched people and businesses in a myriad of ways. Society as well experienced various forms of upheaval whose impacts are yet to be determined.

The real estate industry was not immune to the influences of 2020, facing its own set of challenges. Fortunately for the membership of PSAR, it was Robert Cromer’s year to serve as PSAR President.

Throughout 2020, Robert maintained a steady hand at the wheel as leader of our association. He brought a measured tone, demonstrated authenticity and inspired teamwork among the PSAR Board of Directors.

2020 PSAR President, Recognized

Recently, several elected officials have recognized Robert for his outstanding leadership and resilient make up while leading PSAR as board President.

Earlier this week, Robert received a certificate of appreciation from San Diego County Supervisor, District 1, Nora Vargas.

Robert has also drawn noteworthy praise for his recent comment posted on a National Real Estate Masterminds Facebook page. His response to a question about the value of association participation was inciteful and he used great metaphors to help make his point.

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In his own words, Robert said the following:

I was on a National Real Estate Masterminds page and someone posted today. “What is the big difference between being a Real Estate Agent and a REALTOR®?” You can imagine some of the negative responses. One person wrote “$800.” Others said “REALTORS® subscribe to a code of ethics.”

Here was my answer: Not being a Realtor is like showing up to a beautifully hosted party at a home without bringing the host a bottle of wine or side dish. Then you eat several plates of food, drink beverages and enjoy everyone’s company without contributing. A person can do that, but it kind of sucks for the host and those who contributed (provided food, cleaned the home before, set up tables, hired the caterer, broke everything down, took the trash out, cleaned up after you, etc.).

NAR and CAR (California) spend millions of dollars fighting for personal property rights and home-ownership, lobbying against laws that would restrict one of the greatest ways to provide security for millions of families and change one’s socioeconomic status-- being a home owner. They have been doing this for many years, before any of us were REALTORS® and when we were just kids.

Now take it one step further and imagine them as your parents, who have always looked after you and your friends. In states that were shut down, they lobbied Congress to make us essential workers, so we could feed our children and so the states’ economies did not fold like bad poker hands. They also made sure we were included in the stimulus package and PPP loans. There are thousands of more examples that smarter people than I on this page can add. Don’t show up to the party without being a contributor. You wouldn’t do that to your parents, would you?

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Rich D’Ascoli, PSAR CEO, commented on Robert’s response:

I have devoted the past fifteen years of my life advocating for Realtors. I join hundreds of volunteers in saying this post was inspirational. It moves a lot of people who are involved with, and give so much to, this industry. 

Robert is referring to those who are not REALTORS®. His perspective also applies to those REALTORS® who volunteer versus those who don’t; to those who contribute to the PACs and HAF and those who don’t.  It is critical that individuals look at the history and understand the issues before jumping to conclusions. Just two years ago AB-5 passed requiring that most Californians become employees. The fact that Realtors are not employees right now did not happen by chance. There is a massive organization in place to protect not only homeownership but also the interests of those who facilitate it. There are a few REALTORS® doing so much to help all REALTORS® It’s important to honor and recognize their selfless efforts.

Robert’s words as a REALTOR® are meaningful. I wish more of our leaders would step up and articulate these same ideals.

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In addition to recognition from Supervisor Nora Vargas, Robert is receiving honors from other elected officials, including Congressman Juan Vargas, State Senator Ben Hueso and Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez.

Some of those officials are preparing a proclamation containing these tributes to Robert:

WHEREAS, Robert Cromer served as 2020 President of the Pacific Southwest Association of Realtors (PSAR), one of the largest real estate trade organizations for San Diego-area REALTORS®;

WHEREAS, Robert provided outstanding leadership and vision during a surreal year of setbacks and hardships when a brutal pandemic swept the globe as the shadow of COVID-19 enveloped the land;

WHEREAS, PSAR thrived and grew its membership during an unparalleled, difficult and challenging year, thanks to Robert’s demonstration of strong leadership and clear communication that relieved anxiety and encouraged strength and resiliency among PSAR members;

WHEREAS, Robert embodied PSAR’s mission to empower REALTORS®, to protect private property rights and create homeownership opportunities for all, while adhering to the highest standards of integrity and the REALTOR® Code of Ethics;

WHEREAS, Robert’s example of leadership and decision making in uncertain times, plus his blend of competence, firmness, calmness and empathy in a crisis, empowered PSAR members to flourish by leveraging a collective strength in service to homebuyers and sellers throughout the greater San Diego County community;

THEREFORE, we hereby join the 3,500 PSAR real estate professionals in thanking Robert Cromer for his tremendous volunteer service and offering our best wishes for a successful real estate career in the future as a past PSAR President. Good luck and best wishes.

 

 ~Thanks, Robert Cromer, for your service to PSAR. We’re all very grateful.

Topics: Announcements