Update regarding the DOJ Statement of Interest in the PIN Case.

Posted by Communications on Feb 16, 2024 10:16:19 PM

Katie Johnson NAR's General Council shared an update today regarding the Department of Justice's (DOJ) Statement of Interest in the ongoing lawsuit, Nosalek v. MLS PIN, which scrutinizes the practice of cooperative compensation between listing and buyer brokers.

MLS PIN, not fully owned by REALTOR® associations and not bound by NAR's guidelines, mandates that listing brokers offer compensation to buyer brokers. The DOJ challenges this tradition, suggesting that listing brokers and sellers should not offer compensation to buyer brokers, aiming to change longstanding practices in real estate transactions in the U.S.

Johnson argues that the DOJ's stance could harm consumers by making it more expensive for buyers to obtain representation and limit access to housing, noting the DOJ's lack of new analysis to back its claims. She emphasizes that such DOJ interventions overlook the potential negative impacts on homebuyers, including those buying for the first time or belonging to minority groups, and could disrupt the housing market.

Despite these challenges, NAR remains committed to defending free market competition and ensuring fair home ownership access. Johnson urges members to fully understand the DOJ's position, highlighting its implications for cooperative compensation practices and the broader real estate market. She asserts NAR's dedication to navigating these issues, aiming for outcomes that support property owners and real estate professionals across America.

Hee entire update may be found on the Realtor Hub Here.

Read the DOJ,'s Statement of Interest Here

Topics: Announcements, Brokers/Managers, Industry

LOWER HOME SALES, EVEN WITH LOWER MORTGAGE RATES

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 15, 2024 8:00:00 AM

LOWER HOME SALES, EVEN WITH LOWER MORTGAGE RATES

Lower mortgage rates at the beginning of this year failed to spark home sales across San Diego County in January 2024, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).

Sales of existing, single-family homes in San Diego County declined 0.9 percent in a month-over-month comparison between December 2023 and January 2024. In a year-over-year comparison between January 2024 and January 2023, the sales pace was unchanged, a difference of 0.0 percent.

In contrast, statewide home sales for January 2024 increased 14.4 percent in a month-over-month comparison and 5.9 percent year-over-year. It was the highest level for statewide existing home sales in six months.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 256,160 in January 2024, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

While the increase in January 2024 was the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months, the sales pace stayed below the 300,000-unit threshold for the 16th straight month and will likely stay below that level in the first quarter of 2024. With interest rates moderating sharply at the end of 2023 and leveling off nearly 100 basis points below the most recent peak, home sales should continue to grow year-over-year in February, but the improvement will be modest.

Meanwhile, home prices continued to rise in San Diego County in January 2024. The median sales price of an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County in January 2024 was $925,000, a 1.5 percent difference from December 2023, when the median price was $911,500. A year ago, in January 2023, the median home sales price was $824,900, a difference of 12.1 percent with January 2024.

January 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

January 2023 County Sales and Price Activity (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

However, in contrast, on a statewide basis, home prices declined in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. The median price of an existing, single-family home in California was $788,940 in January 2024, a 3.8 percent drop from the $819,740 figure in December 2023. A year ago, in January 2023, the statewide median home price was $751,700, a difference of 5.0 percent with January 2024.

It was the seventh straight month for annual price gains on a statewide basis. The monthly price decline was due primarily to seasonal factors, and the January figure marked the first time in ten months that the median price dropped below the $800,000 benchmark. With mortgage rates softening since mid-October, home prices will likely maintain their upward momentum, and the market should continue to observe a mid- to single-digit, year-over-year growth rate in California’s median price in at least the early part of 2024.

“It’s encouraging to see California’s housing market kick off the year with positive sales growth in January,” said C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. “While we’ll likely experience some ups and downs in home sales in the coming months as rates continue to fluctuate, the lending environment is expected to be more favorable in 2024, so the market should see more pent-up demand translate into sales.”

“The increase in new active listings for the first time in 19 months was great news for the California housing market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With rates climbing back up to a two-month high earlier this week due to the latest inflation concerns, potential home sellers could hit the pause button on listing their house on the market and wait until rates begin to ease again. In general, rates are expected to decline later this year, and available inventory should slowly improve throughout 2024.”    

Other key points from C.A.R.’s January 2024 resale housing report include:

  • Home sales in all major regions in the state rose in January 2024 on a year-over-year basis, including 2.2 percent in Southern California.

  • At the regional level, home prices increased in January 2024 in all major regions from a year ago in January 2023, including 7.0 percent in Southern California

  • Unsold inventory statewide index increased 28 percent on a month-over-month basis and declined by 8.6 percent from January 2023. The index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate declined from 2.5 months in December 2023, to 3.2 months in January 2024. The index was 3.5 months in January 2023.

 

January 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

January 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

  • In San Diego County in January 2024, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.6 months, compared to 2.2 months in December 2023, and 2.7 months a year ago in January 2023. Other unsold inventory figures on a monthly basis in 2023 for San Diego County included 2.5 months in November and September, 1.9 months in August, 2.0 months in July, 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

  •  Existing active listings at the state level dipped again on a year-over-year basis for the 10th straight month in January 2024. However, the decline was small, a sign that active listings might be heading in the right direction as the market approaches the spring home-buying season. Still, the recent jump in mortgage rates the past couple of weeks could cause potential sellers to reconsider listing their homes for sale.

  •  New active listings at the state level increased from a year ago for the first time in 19 months, and the annual increase was the largest since May 2022. The jump in new active listings contributed to an improvement in overall active listings, and the sharp drop in rates at the end of 2023 was likely the motivating factor that convinced more homeowners to sell their homes.

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 32 days in January 2024, 26 days in December 2023, and 39 days in January 2023.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 21.5 days in January 2024, compared to 18 days in December 2023, and 32 days in January 2023. Other median-time-on-the-market figures on a monthly basis for San Diego in 2023 include 15 days in November, 14 days in October and September, 13 days in August, 12 days in July, 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March and 17 days in February. The median represents the time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.9 percent in January 2024, 99 percent in December 2023 and 96.5 percent in January 2023.The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in November, October, September, August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.64 percent in January, up from 6.27 percent in January 2023, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

IS THE MARKET TURNING THE CORNER WITH LOWER RATES?

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jan 4, 2024 7:00:00 AM

IS THE MARKET TURNING THE CORNER WITH LOWER RATES?

Mirroring a statewide trend, both home prices and home sales declined across San Diego County in December 2023, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).

The median sales price of an existing single-family detached home in San Diego County in December 2023 was $911,500, which was a 4.3 percent difference from November 2023, when the median price was $952,000. A year ago, in December 2022, the median home sales price was $850,000, a difference of 7.2 percent with December 2023.

December 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)December 2023 County Sales and Price Activity

Also, in December 2023, sales of existing, single-family homes in San Diego County declined by 5.1 percent in a month-over-month comparison with November 2023. In a year-over-year comparison between December 2023 and December 2022, the sales pace was 17.3 percent lower.

Statewide, the numbers for home sales and home prices in December 2023 showed a stagnant California housing market.

For the 2023 year as a whole, the state recorded an annual sales level of 257,630 for 2023, a decline of 24.8 percent from the revised sales level of 342,530 reported at the end of 2022. The annual sales decline comparing 2023 with 2022 was the steepest decline in existing home sales in California since 2007.

Statewide, December 2023 home sales remained near the 16-year low reached in November 2023.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 224,000 in December 2023, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the December 2023 pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The December 2023 sales pace was essentially unchanged from the revised 223,940 homes sold in November 2023 and was down 7.1 percent from a year ago in December 2022, when a revised 241,070 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California have been below the 300,000 threshold since September 2022, and will likely stay below that level throughout the first quarter of 2024.

While the deceleration in the year-over-year loss was due primarily to the low level of pending sales recorded a year ago, the slowdown could be a sign that the market is turning the corner, especially since rates in the past couple of weeks have remained well-below the recent peak recorded in late October 2023.

Statewide, the median price of an existing single-family home was $819,740 in December 2023, down slightly by 0.3 percent from $822,200 in November 2023, but above the $770,490 price, a difference of 6.4 percent, posted in December 2022. It was the largest year-over-year gain since May 2022.

With mortgage rates softening since mid-October, home prices will likely maintain their upward momentum, and the market should continue to observe a mid- to single-digit, year-over-year growth rate in California’s median price during the early part of 2024.

For the 2023 year, California’s median home price slipped 0.6 percent to $813,980 from 2022’s $818,900 figure, but it is expected to climb to $860,300 in 2024.

“The housing market had a tough year in 2023 as a shortage of homes for sale and high costs of borrowing continued to have a negative impact on housing inventory and demand,” said 2024 C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. “With mortgage rates expected to come down in the next 12 months, home sales will bounce back as buyers and sellers return to a more favorable housing market. Home prices should see a moderate increase in 2024 as well.”

“Easing inflationary pressure and a soft economic outlook suggest that we will see some interest rate cuts in the upcoming year, which bode well for a housing market recovery,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With rates declining to a 7-month low in late 2023, Americans are feeling more positive about the market, and we could begin to see some increase in market activity at the start of the year. The improvement is expected to be gradual as tight housing supply will remain the norm in 2024.”  

 

Other key points from C.A.R.’s December 2023 resale housing report include:

  • Home sales in all major regions in the state dipped in December 2023 on a year-over-year basis, including 6.2 percent in Southern California.
     
  • At the regional level, home prices increased in December 2023 in all major regions from a year ago in December 2022, including 6.3 percent in Southern California.

  • The unsold inventory statewide decreased 16.7 percent on a month-over-month basis and dipped slightly from December 2022 by -3.8 percent. The index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate declined from 3.0 months in November to 2.5 months in December. The index was 2.6 months in December 2022.

December 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

December 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

  • In San Diego County in December 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.2 months, compared to 2.5 months in November 2023 and 2.2 months in December 2022. Other unsold inventory figures on a monthly basis in 2023 for San Diego County included 2.5 months in November and September, 1.9 months in August, 2.0 months in July, 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

  • New active listings at the state level dipped again from a year ago for the 18th consecutive month, but the annual decline remained below 3 percent for the second month in a row. With mortgage rates dropping at the end of 2023, sliding back to the lowest level since early August, the market could see a slight uptick in the number of for-sale properties being listed for sale, as we kick-off the New Year.

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 26 days in December 2023, 21 days in November 2023 and 33 days in December 2022.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 18 days in December 2023, compared to 15 days in November 2023 and 23 days in December 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures on a monthly basis for San Diego in 2023 include 14 days in October and September, 13 days in August, 12 days in July, 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents the time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 99 percent in December 2023 and 96.1 percent in December 2022.

  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in November, October, September, August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.82 percent in December, up from 6.36 percent in December 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

HOME SALES AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE GREAT RECESSION

Posted by Rick Griffin on Dec 20, 2023 11:05:00 AM

HIGH INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO TEST MARKET

California home sales in November 2023 registered the biggest monthly decline in the past year and dropped to the lowest level since the Great Recession, 16 years ago, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).  Elevated borrowing costs were blamed for the low home sales statewide.

In San Diego County, sales of existing, single-family homes in November 2023 decreased by 16.9 percent in a month-over-month comparison with October 2023. The sales pace was 12.2 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with November 2022.

Also, in San Diego County in November 2023, the median home sales price for an existing, single-family detached home was $952,000, which was a 1.7 percent difference from October 2023, when the median price was $936,250. A year ago, in November 2022, the median home sales price $865,000, a difference of 10.1 percent with November 2023.

November 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

November 2023 County Sales and Price Activity (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Statewide, the numbers for home sales and home prices in November 2023 showed a suppressed California housing market.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 223,940 homes sold in November 2023, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The statewide sales pace in November 2023 was down 7.4 percent on a monthly basis compared to October 2023, when 241,770 homes were sold, and down 5.8 percent from a year ago in November 2022, when a revised 237,730 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 250,000-unit pace for the third consecutive month. The annual decline was the 29th straight drop, but the decline was the smallest in the last 20 months.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 25.9 percent in November 2023.

Median home prices on a statewide basis took at step backwards in November 2023, compared to the previous month, but rose in a year-over-year comparison for the fifth straight month. The year-over-year price gain was the largest in 18 months.

California’s statewide median price decreased 2.2 percent from October’s $840,360 to $822,200 in November 2023, and rose 6.2 percent from a revised $774,150 recorded a year ago in November 2022. The median represents a price where half of the total number of homes sold above it and half below.

The statewide monthly price decline was the largest in 10 months but was smaller than the October-to-November average price adjustment of minus 2.5 percent observed over the past five years.

“Elevated mortgage interest rates and a persistent shortage of homes for sale hindered home sales in November,” said 2024 C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. “With mortgage rates dropping to the lowest level in four months in recent weeks and the Federal Reserve indicating it plans to cut rates more than previously anticipated in 2024, more prospective homebuyers could reenter the market early next year.”

“While sales have been weak for the past several months, a tight supply of homes for sale is keeping home prices from falling,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “Going into 2024, the recent decline in mortgage rates, along with the upward momentum in home prices, could motivate more would-be sellers to list their homes for sale in the spring home-buying season.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2023 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level for Southern California, year-over-year sales declined in November 2023 by 5.6 percent. In October 2023, the figure was 7.4 percent.

  • At the regional level for Southern California, median home prices in November 2023 increased from a year ago by 9.9 percent. It was the biggest year-over-year gain of any the statewide regions tracked by C.A.R. In October 2023, the increase was 6.5 percent.

  • Housing inventory improved in November 2023, compared to October 2023. However, the improvement was due mostly to the sales decline rather than an increase in active listings.

  • The statewide unsold inventory index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, increased 11.1 percent in November 2023 on a month-over-month basis to 3.0 months, compared to October 2023 at 2.7 months, but fell below last year’s level by 6.3 percent to 3.2 months in November 2022.

  • In San Diego County in November 2023, the inventory of available inventory of homes for sale was 2.5 months, compared to 2.3 months in October 2023 and 2.9 months in November 2022. Other unsold inventory figures on a monthly basis in 2023 in San Diego included 2.5 months in September, 1.9 months in August, 2.0 months in July, 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

November 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

blog_231220_chart2

  • Active listings at the state level dipped again in November 2023 on a year-over year basis for the eighth straight month. The decline in each of the last seven months all registered more than 10 percent year-over-year.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 21 days in November 2023 and 29 days in November 2022.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 15 days in November 2023, compared to 14 days in October 2023 and 22 days in November 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures on a monthly basis for San Diego in 2023 include 14 days in September, 13 days in August, 12 days in July, 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 100 percent in November 2023 and 96.7 percent in November 2022.

  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in November, October, September, August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. A year ago, in November 2022, the ratio was 96.7 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.44 percent in November 2023, up from 6.81 percent in November 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

HOME SALES MUTED, INVENTORY TIGHT, RATES HIGH

Posted by Rick Griffin on Nov 19, 2023 7:00:00 AM

HIGH INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO TEST MARKET

Home sales remained muted in October 2023, as housing inventory continued to be tight and elevated interest rates kept homebuyers and sellers on the sidelines, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). 

In San Diego County, sales of existing, single-family homes in October 2023 increased 5.7 percent in a month-over-month comparison with September 2023, while the sales pace was 6.4 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with October 2022.

Also in San Diego County, the median home sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in October 2023 was $936,250, which was a 3.8 percent dip from September 2023, when the price was $973,100. In addition, the median home sales price a year ago in October 2022 was $860,000, a 8.9 percent difference with October 2023.

Statewide, the numbers for home sales and home prices in October 2023 revealed a similar narrative.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 241,770 homes sold in October 2023, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the October 2023 pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The statewide sales pace in October 2023 was up 0.3 percent on a monthly basis compared to September 2023, when 240,940 homes were sold, and down 11.9 percent from a year ago in October 2022, when 274,410 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 250,000-unit pace for the second consecutive month. The annual decline was the 28th straight drop, but the decline was the smallest in the last four months.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 27.2 percent in October 2023.

Home prices on a statewide basis rose for the fourth straight month in a year-over-year comparison, and the median price was the largest year-over-year gain in 17 months.

Statewide, in October 2023, the median price was $840,360, which was 0.4 percent lower than the September 2023 figure of $843,340, and 5.3 percent lower than the revised October 2022 figure of $798,140. The median represents a price where half of the total number of homes sold above it and half below.

While October’s median price took a step back from the month prior, the month-to-month decline was smaller than the long-run September-to-October price adjustment of -1.5 percent observed in the last 44 years.

Prices are expected to level off over the next couple of months, following traditional seasonal patterns. Positive year-over-year price growth should remain throughout the rest of the year as housing supply is projected to be tight in the coming months.

“A sizable jump in interest rates kept home sales constrained in October and will likely hamper home sales for the remainder of the year,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “Despite rates remaining elevated, many other factors have swung in favor of buyers recently including more properties staying on the market longer before selling and fewer homes selling over list price, which could motivate more sellers to offer concessions.”

“With the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting and recent economic news pointing to a slowing economy, mortgage rates have been coming down in recent weeks,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “If inflation continues to cool, we could see more improvement in mortgage rates than the Fed is currently projecting for next year, which would alleviate some pressure on both the buy and sell sides of the housing market in 2024.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s October 2023 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level for Southern California, year-over-year sales declined in October 2023 by 7.4 percent. In September, the figure was 21.7 percent. In August 2023, the figure was 13.9 percent.

  • At the regional level for Southern California, median home prices in October increased from a year ago by 6.5 percent. In September the figure was 4.7 percent. In August, the figure was 4.4 percent.

October 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

blog_231122_chart1

  • Housing supply in California continued to shrink from a year ago in October 2023 as mortgage rates remained elevated. The statewide unsold inventory index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, was 2.7 months in October 2023, 2.8 months in September 2023, and 3.1 months in October 2022.

  • In San Diego in October 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.3 months, compared to 2.5 months in September and 3.0 months in October 2022. Other unsold inventory figures on a monthly basis in 2023 in San Diego included 1.9 months in August, 2.0 months in July, 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

 

October 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

blog_231122_chart2

  • Housing inventory in California slid back in October from the prior month as the market continued to grapple with high mortgage rates. The statewide unsold inventory index decreased -3.6 percent on a month-over-month basis and fell below last October by -12.9 percent.

  • Active listings at the state level continued to dip on a year-over year basis for seven straight months, and a further decline in each of the last six months all registered more than 20 percent in year-over-year comparisons.

  • New active listings at the state level dropped from a year ago for the 16th consecutive month, but the rate of decline continued to decelerate. In fact, newly added for-sale properties dipped less than 10 percent for the first time in 12 months. The smaller year-over-year rate of decline was partly due to low-base effects though, as new active listings in October 2022 also recorded a sizeable drop from the prior year. 

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 20 days in October and 28 days in October 2022.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 14 days in October and September 2023, compared to 22 days in October 2022.Other median-time-on-the-market figures on a monthly basis for San Diego in 2023 include 13 days in August, 12 days in July, 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.
  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in October, September, August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. A year ago, in October 2022, the ratio was 97.3 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.62 percent in October, up from 6.90 percent in October 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

  • Mortgage rates have been coming down in recent weeks as the Fed paused rate hikes at the latest meeting and recent economic news pointed to a slowing economy. Further decline in mortgage rates should alleviate pressures on both the supply side and the demand side of the housing market in the coming months.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Draws National Media

Posted by Communications on Nov 13, 2023 7:00:00 AM

blog banner_231112_ Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

The National Association of REALTORS® released its 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers this morning, garnering coverage in a wide range of national media outlets, including CNN , Bloomberg and The Washington Post.

For most home buyers, the purchase of real estate is one of the largest financial transactions they will make. Buyers purchase a home not only for the desire to own a home of their own, but also because of changes in jobs, family situations, and the need for a smaller or larger living area. This annual survey was conducted by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® of recent home buyers. Download Highlights (PDF 7 MB) | Get the Full Report(link is external) | News Release

Read additional highlights of the report in REALTOR® Magazine’s “12 Trends That Explain Your Clients’ Real Estate Journey.”

The annual report, which NAR has been conducting since 1981, covers demographics, preferences, and experiences of recent buyers and sellers across the United States. Data was collected from a nationally representative sample of home buyers who purchased a primary residence in the 12-month period between July 2022 and June 2023.

This year’s report shows that reliance on real estate professionals remains strong. Although 100% of respondents said they used the Internet in the home search process, a vast majority—89% of both buyers and sellers—said they worked with a real estate professional on their sale or purchase. Only 5% of sellers cited the “agent’s commission” as an important factor in choosing their agent: The reputation of the agent, whether the agent was “honest and trustworthy,” and knowledge of the neighborhood ranked as the most important factors.

Household annual income among buyers was 22% higher than last year, an indication that high sales prices and rising interest rates have eroded lower-income households’ ability to purchase a home. Among buyers who financed their purchase, the median down payment amount was also up. In this year’s report, it was 8% for first-time buyers, 19% for repeat buyers, and 15% for all buyers.

After several years of losing share in the homebuying market, first-time buyers are making headway. They made up 32% of the market, according to this year’s report—still below the historical rate of 38% but notably higher than last year’s rate of 26%.

As in past years, buyers and sellers report satisfaction with the service provided by their real estate professionals. Ninety percent of buyers said they would definitely (75%) or probably (15%) use their agent again or recommend their agent to others. Eighty-seven percent of sellers said they would definitely (73%) or probably (14%) recommend their agent for future services.

Highlights From the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information, Industry

HIGH INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO TEST MARKET

Posted by Rick Griffin on Oct 12, 2023 1:17:00 PM

HIGH INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO TEST MARKET

Persistently high mortgage rates are causing fewer home sales and lower home selling prices in the California housing market, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). 

In San Diego, sales of existing, single-family homes in September 2023 declined 19.4 percent in a month-over-month comparison with August 2023, while the decline was 25.3 percent in a year-over-year comparison with September 2022.

Statewide, the sales pace for existing, single-family homes in September 2023 was down 5.4 percent with 254,740 units sold in August 2023, and down 21.5 percent compared to September 2022, when 307,000 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Statewide year-to-date home sales were down 28.5 percent in September 2023.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 240,940 in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the 12th month in a row. It was the fourth consecutive month for lower statewide home sales and the 27th straight drop in annual comparisons.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 28.5 percent in September.

Meanwhile, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County in September 2023 dipped by 2.7 percent to $973,100 from the $1 million mark posted in August 2023. A year ago, in September 2022, the median price for San Diego was $899,000, a year-over-year difference of 8.2 percent.

September 2023 County Sales and Price Activity

(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September 2023 County Sales and Price Activity  (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Statewide, in September 2023, the median price was $843,340, which was 2.7 percent lower than the August 2023 figure of $859,800, and 3.2 percent lower than the September 2022 figure of $817,150. The median represents a price where half of the total number of homes sold above it and half below.

While September’s median price took a step back from the 15-month high recorded in August, the month-to-month decline was in line with the long-run August-to-September price adjustment of -1.8 percent observed in the last 44 years. Prices are likely to experience monthly declines in the next couple of months, following the traditional seasonal pattern. Positive year-over-year price growth is expected to persist through the remainder of the year as housing supply is expected to remain tight.

“With the market being less competitive, there are greater opportunities for consumers who need to purchase a home for personal reasons or those who can qualify to purchase at today’s interest rates,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “More sellers are making concessions as homes are taking longer to sell, fewer homes are selling above asking price, and there are more homes to choose from.”

“As mortgage rates surge to new highs not seen in more than two decades, home sales are being tested and are likely to remain tepid for the next few months,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With the Fed planning on holding rates higher for longer, the cost of borrowing will remain elevated and may not come down much in the near term. Housing affordability will continue to hinder sales activity for the rest of the year, especially in the low- and mid-price ranges.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s September 2023 resale housing report include:

  •  At the regional level for Southern California, year-over-year sales declined in September 2023 by 21.7 percent. In August 2023, the figure was 13.9 percent.

  • At the regional level for Southern California, median home prices in September increased from a year ago by 4.7 percent. In August, the figure was 4.4 percent.

  • Housing supply in California continued to shrink from a year ago in September as mortgage rates remained elevated. The statewide unsold inventory index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, was 2.8 in September 2023. It increased 16.7 percent on a month-over-month basis and was unchanged from a year ago in September 2022.

September 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market  (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

  • In San Diego in September 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.5 months, compared to 1.9 months in August, 2.0 months in July 2023 and 2.5 months in August 2022. Other unsold inventory figures in 2023 in San Diego included 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

  •  Active listings at the state level continued to dip on a year-over year basis for five straight months, with the decline in each of the last six months all registering more than 20 percent year-over-year. With rates remaining high and the market transitioning to the low season, active listings will not likely improve much, if at all, before the end of the year.

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 18 days in September and 27 days in September 2022.

  •  In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 14 days in September, compared to 13 days in August 2023, 12 days in July 2023 and 18 days in August 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures for San Diego in 2023 include 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in September, August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. A year ago, in September 2022, the ratio was 97.6 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.20 percent in September, up from 6.11 percent in September 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

SHORTAGE OF HOMES, HIGHER INTEREST RATES, HAMPERING MARKET

Posted by Rick Griffin on Sep 17, 2023 11:57:00 AM

SHORTAGE OF HOMES, HIGHER INTEREST RATES, HAMPERING MARKET

The median sales price for an existing single-family home in San Diego hit the $1 million mark in August 2023, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). 

August 2023’s median price was a 3.2 percent increase from $969,020 figure for the previous month of July 2023. A year ago, in August 2022, the median price figure was $886,250, a year-over-year difference of 12.8 percent.

August 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

August 2023 County Sales and Price Activity

Statewide, in August 2023, the median price reached $859,800, its highest level in 15 months. The statewide median price reached its peak of $893,200 in May 2022.

The August 2023 median price for the state also was the largest year-over-year gain in 14 months. In July 2023, the median price for California was $832,400, a difference of 3.5 percent with August 2023. A year ago, in August 2022, the California median price was $834,740, a 3.0 percent difference with August 2023.

Meanwhile, as home prices hit high levels, home sales in California declined for the third straight month in August 2023.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 254,740 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The sales pace in August 2023 was down 5.3 percent on a monthly basis from a revised 268,940 in July 2023 and down 18.9 percent from a year ago in August 2022, when a revised 314,270 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the 11th month in a row. The sales pace decline on an annual basis was the 26th straight drop.

Rising mortgage rates and an ongoing shortage of homes for sale continued to hamper the California housing market resulting in a 29.2 percent decline in year-to-date statewide home sales from January to August 2023.

Meanwhile, the sales pace for existing, single-family detached homes in San Diego in August 2023 was 2.7 higher when compared with July 2023. However, August 2023 home sales were down 16.0 percent in a year-over-year comparison with August 2022.

“Despite persistently high mortgage rates and availability of homes remaining extremely tight, there’s still solid interest from prospective buyers,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “The highly competitive housing market continued to provide support to home prices, with the statewide median price steadily improving since early 2023. As California housing prices continue to stabilize, buyers and sellers on the sidelines will get back into the market once interest rates begin to moderate in the fourth quarter.”

“A reacceleration of interest rates since April, combined with tight housing inventory pushed down California home sales to a seven-month low in August,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “While rates may remain elevated for a little longer, macroeconomic fundamentals are expected to soften starting in the last quarter of this year. Mortgage rates should begin to ease, albeit gradually, in the next couple months, and provide a much-needed boost to both the supply and the demand sides of the housing market.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s August 2023 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level for Southern California, year-over-year sales declined in August 2023 by 13.9 percent. In July 2023, the figure was 14 percent.

  • At the regional level for Southern California, median home prices in August 2023 increased from a year ago by 4.4 percent. In July 2023, the figure was 2.7 percent.

  • Home prices continued to stabilize across the state, with 19 counties experiencing year-over-year median price decreases in August, compared to 27 counties in July and 37 in June.

  • Housing supply in California continued to shrink from a year ago in August as mortgage rates remained elevated. The statewide unsold inventory index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, was at 2.4 months in August 2023, 2.5 months in July 2023 and 2.8 months in August 2022. The statewide unsold inventory index was down 14.3 percent on a year-over-year basis.

August 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

August 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

  • In San Diego in August 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 1.9 months, compared to 2.0 months in July 2023 and 2.5 months in August 2022. Other unsold inventory figures in 2023 in San Diego included 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

  • Active listings at the state level have fallen for five months in a row in a year-over-year comparison. The year-over-year decline has exceeded 20 percent the past four months.

  • Active listings in a month-over-month comparison improved slightly from July 2023 to August 2023 as fewer listings were taken off the market due to the slowdown in closed sales in August.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 18 days in August 2023, 16 days in July 2023 and 23 days in August 2022.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 13 days in August 2023, compared to 12 days in July 2023 and 18 days in August 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures for San Diego in 2023 include 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. A year ago, in August 2022, the ratio was 98.4 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.07 percent in August, up from 5.22 percent in August 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

INTEREST RATES ON THE RISE, ALONG WITH HOME PRICES

Posted by Rick Griffin on Aug 23, 2023 10:29:42 AM

ELEVATED INTEREST RATES, INVENTORY SHORTAGE DICTATING THE MARKET

Interest rates are still on the rise, along with the price of homes in San Diego County and statewide, according to the latest home sales and price report for July 2023 from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in July 2023 increased to $969,020, an increase of 1.1 percent from June 2023’s median price of $958,250. In a year-over-year comparison with July 2022, the median price was $930,000, an increase of 4.2 percent.

Statewide, the median home price exceeded $800,000 in July 2023 for the fourth straight month. It was the first year-over-year gain since October 2022, nine months ago.

July 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
July 2023 County Sales and Price Activity

The statewide median home price dipped 0.7 percent from June 2023’s $838,260 to $832,345 in July 2023, and it was up 0.2 percent from a revised $830,870 a year ago in July 2022.

As the housing market transitions into the off-peak homebuying season in the coming months, the statewide median price will likely soften as market competition cools. Home prices, nevertheless, should continue to improve from last year as tight housing supply conditions persist.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates are reducing the number of home sales. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 30.3 percent in July 2023.

Sales of existing, single-family homes in San Diego in July 2023 declined by 1.3 percent in a month-over-month comparison with June 2023, while the figures was 4.9 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with June 2022.

Statewide, the sales pace for existing, single-family homes in July 2023 was down 3.0 percent, compared to June 2023, and down by 9 percent from a year ago in July 2022.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 269,180 in July 2023, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

July 2023’s sales pace was down on a monthly basis from 277,490 in June 2023, and down 9.0 percent from a year ago in June 2022, when a revised 295,770 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the 10th consecutive month. The yearly drop was the smallest since April 2022 and marked the first time in more than a year that sales dropped by less than 10 percent from the previous year. However, the small decline was due partly to a lower sales base last July, when sales dropped below 300,000 for the first time in over two years.

“Despite slowing home sales in the past couple of months, housing demand remains resilient, and the market continues to be competitive,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “Many in the market aspire to become homeowners and are actively looking to buy, but the shortage of homes for sale and elevated mortgage rates remain challenging headwinds for them.”

“Housing supply continued to be tight in California as rates remain well above levels observed in 2020-2021, when homeowners locked in their long-term mortgages,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “While home sales have been negatively impacted by the shortage of homes for sale during this year’s homebuying season, home prices continue to stabilize and have provided consumers with some confidence that market conditions are still solid. Interest rates should moderate later this year if inflation eases further, and home sales could see some improvement in the winter season.”

 

Other key points from C.A.R.’s July 2023 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level for Southern California, year-over-year sales declined in July 2023 by 14 percent.

  • At the regional level for Southern California, median home prices in July 2023 increased from a year ago by 2.7 percent.

  • Home prices across the state stabilized somewhat in July 2023, as fewer counties (27) posting year-over-year median price declines in July 2023, compared with 37 counties in June 2022.

  • Housing inventory in California climbed month-over-month in July for the second straight month after inching up in June but continued to trail last year’s level as a lack of new listings remained the norm.

  • The statewide unsold inventory in July 2023 increased 13.4 percent compared to June 2023, but dropped sharply by 19.4 percent on a year-over-year comparison with June 2022.

    July 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
    (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

    July 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

  • Active listings at the state level in July 2023 fell more than 30 percent from a year ago in July 2022. It was the largest annual decline since May 2021.

  • With mortgage rates expected to remain high in August and September, the “lock-in effect” may prevent any meaningful improvement in supply conditions for the remainder of the third quarter, as homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes and buy something new due to the financial shock of trading their historically low mortgage rates for a higher interest rate with their new property.

  • Unsold inventory declined in all price ranges in July 2023 in year-over-year comparisons from a year ago in July 2022. The mid-price segment of $750,000-$999,000 dipped the most by 25.8 percent in a year-over-year comparison. The $500,000-$749,000 price range, with a decrease of 20 percent, posted the second largest decline from last year, followed by the sub-$500,000 at 18.8 percent lower and the $1 million price segment at 16.1 percent lower.

  • Statewide unsold inventory on a monthly basis was at 2.5 months in July 2023, compared to 2.2 months in June 2023 and 3.1 months in July 2022.

  • In San Diego in July 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.0 months, which was the same figure for June 2023. In July 2022, the figure was 3.1 months. Other unsold inventory figures in 2023 in San Diego included 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

  • Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 16 days in July 2023, compared to 15 days in June 2023, 17 days in May 2023, 20 days in April 2023 and 18 days a year ago in July 2022.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 12 days in July 2023, compared to 11 days in June 2023, 12 days in May 2023 and a revised 13.5 days a year ago in July 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures for San Diego in 2023 include 12 days in April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio this year was at 100 percent in July and June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. A year ago, in July 2022, the ratio was 100.0 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.84 percent in July 2023, up from 5.41 percent in July 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

ELEVATED INTEREST RATES, INVENTORY SHORTAGE DICTATING THE MARKET

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jul 8, 2023 6:30:00 AM

ELEVATED INTEREST RATES, INVENTORY SHORTAGE DICTATING THE MARKET

Elevated interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale continued to dictate the California housing market in June 2023, with the year-over-year price decline at its lowest rate this year, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

For June 2023, in San Diego, home sales were lower and home prices were higher in month-over-month comparisons between June 2023 and May 2023.

Sales of existing, single-family homes in San Diego County in June 2023 declined by 6.6 percent in a month-over-month comparison with May 2023, while the figure was 24.3 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with June 2022.

Meanwhile, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County increased in June 2023 to $958,250, compared to $935,000 in May 2023, a 2.5 percent difference. In a year-over-year comparison, the median price was $950,000 in June 2022, a 0.9 percent difference.

June 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
June 2023 County Sales and Price Activity

Statewide, the sales pace for existing, single-family homes in June 2023 was down by 4.1 percent, compared to May 2023, when 289,460 homes were sold, and it was down by 19.7 percent from June 2022, when a revised 345,760 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 277,490 in June, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the June pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the ninth consecutive month. The yearly drop was the smallest since May 2022 and marked the first time in a year that sales dropped by less than 20 percent from a year ago.

However, the smaller decline was due primarily to weaker sales last June, when sales dropped below 350,000 for the first time in two years.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 32.9 percent in June 2023.

California’s median home price exceeded $800,000 in June for the third straight month, edging up 0.3 percent from $836,110 in May 2023 to $838,260 in June 2023. The statewide median price continued to rise and reached the highest level in 10 months. The tight housing supply and more high-end homes being sold relative to prior months continued to put upward pressure on prices.

Despite the improvement from early 2023, the median home price in California in June 2023 dipped 2.4 percent on a year-over-year basis for the eighth consecutive month from $858,800 in June 2022.

While the downward movement in home prices appears to indicate that housing values are stabilizing, more dips in the median price are expected in the coming months as rates will likely remain elevated for most, if not the entire third quarter of 2023. Higher home prices are a warning signal that housing affordability could remain low in the second half of the year.

“California’s housing market has improved since the winter and appears to have found its footing as sales declined at the slowest pace in over a year,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “Despite elevated interest rates, the demand for housing continues to outpace the availability of homes for sale, as buyers slowly adapt to the new normal under the current housing market conditions.”

“Buyer demand appears to have stabilized after rates doubled last year, though rates could still move higher in the coming months,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “As inflation finally subsides later this year, the market could see some improvement as rates and supply conditions start turning around.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s June 2023 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level, year-over-year sales declined in June 2023 in the Southern California region by 19.4 percent.

  • At the regional level, median home prices in June 2023 dropped from a year ago in the Southern California region by 1.8 percent.

  • Housing inventory in California inched up in June 2023, compared to May 2023, but it was lower than in June 2022, as tight housing supply continues to be the norm. With mortgage rates expected to be high in the next couple of months, California may not see any meaningful improvement in its housing inventory throughout the third quarter.

  • The statewide unsold inventory in June 2023 increased 4.8 percent, compared to May 2023, but dropped 8.3 percent from a year ago in June 2022.

  • Active listings statewide for June 2023 fell sharply by 34 percent, compared to June 2022. It was the largest year-over-year decline since May 2021.

  • Unsold inventory in June 2023 declined in several price ranges from a year ago in June 2022. The mid-price segment of $750,000-$999,000 recorded the biggest year-over-year decline in unsold inventory of 16 percent, followed by the $500,000-$749,000 price range (-12.5 percent) and the sub-$500,000 (-11.5 percent). Unsold inventory in June 2023 for homes priced at $1 million and higher was unchanged in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons.

June 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
June 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

  • Statewide unsold inventory on a monthly basis increased to 2.2 months, compared to 2.1 months for May 2023 and 2.4 months for May 2022.

  • In San Diego, in June 2023, the inventory of available homes for sale was 2.0 months, compared to 1.7 months for May 2023 and 2.4 months for May 2022. Other unsold inventory figures in 2023 in San Diego included 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

  • Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 15 days in June 2023, compared to 17 days in May 2023, 20 days in April 2023 and 14 days a year ago in June 2022.

  • In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 11 days in June 2023, compared to 12 days in May 2023 and 11 days in June 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures in San Diego in 2023 include 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

  • The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio was at 100 percent in June, May and April 2023, 99.1 percent in March 2023, 97.7 percent in February 2023 and 96.5 percent in January 2023. A year ago, in June 2022, the ratio was 101.3 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.71 percent in June, up from 5.52 percent in June 2022, according to Freddie Mac.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information