Interest Rate Reprieve Bolsters December Home Sales

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jan 24, 2023 10:39:30 AM

RISING INTEREST RATES DEPRESS HOME SALES, PRICES

A short respite in rising interest rates helped edge up California home sales in December 2022 to break a three-month sales decline. However, for the year as a whole, statewide home sales were down 23.1 percent from 2021.

According to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R), closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 240,330 in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The December 2022 statewide sales pace for existing, single-family homes was up 1.1 percent on a monthly basis from 237,740 in November 2022 and down 44.1 percent from a year ago in December 2021, when 429,860 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

December 2022 was the second straight month for home sales below the 250,000-unit level statewide.

Meanwhile, California’s median home price remained on a downward trend for the fourth straight month. It has been down on a monthly basis for the past six of seven months.

The December 2022 statewide median home price of $774,580 was down 0.4 percent from the $777,500 recorded in November 2022. The December 2022 price also was lower on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive month, declining 2.8 percent from the $796,570 recorded last December 2021. 

For 2022 as a whole, California’s median home price increased 4.5 percent from 2021’s $786,750 figure but is expected to decline by 8.8 percent in 2023.

In San Diego, home sales increased month-over-month by 0.8 percent in December 2022, compared to November 2022. However, in a year-over-year comparison, between December 2022 and December 2021, home sales decreased by 43.2 percent from the same month a year ago.

December 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

December 2022 County Sales and Price Activity

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County declined in December 2022 by 1.7 percent or $15,000 to $850,000, compared to $865,000 in November 2022. However, in a year-over-year comparison, between December 2022 and December 2021, the median home price increased by 1.6 percent from $836,700 from the same month a year ago.

“It’s encouraging to see an uptick in December’s home sales as buyers took advantage of a slightly more favorable lending environment that provided them with a window of opportunity to enter the California housing market,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. â€śAs buyers and sellers gradually adapt to the new normal, we are seeing a shift toward a more balanced market. With both sides slowly adjusting their expectations, it’s hopeful that we’ll see sales ratcheting higher as market conditions improve further throughout 2023.”

“Home prices are holding up relatively well, despite rising interest rates and falling housing demand in recent months. Tight housing inventory was a primary factor preventing prices from free falling as new active listings continued to dip to reach the lowest level in at least the past five years,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “While depressed inventory will preclude major price declines beyond the 8.8 percent we forecast for this year, it will also slow sales growth and prevent the housing market from having a rapid recovery.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s December 2022 resale housing report include:

 -- At the regional level, all major regions recorded year-over-year sales drops of more than 35 percent, with Southern California incurring the biggest decline of all regions for the third month in a row at minus 48.3 percent.

-- At the regional level, median home prices dropped from a year ago in all major regions, with the San Francisco Bay Area experiencing the biggest annual price decline at 9.6 percent. The median home price drop in the Southern California region for the month was 0.9 percent.

December 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

December 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- Housing inventory in California continued to rise on a month-over-month comparison in 2022, compared to 2021, except as the year came to an end. The statewide unsold inventory index in December 2022 was 2.7 months, which was more than double the 1.2 months recorded in December 2021 but was down from the 3.3 months registered in November 2022.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale in December 2022 declined to 2.2 months, compared to 2.9 months in November 2022. A year ago, in December 2021, the figure was one month. Other inventory figures in San Diego in 2022 include 3.0 months in October, 2.7 months in September, 2.5 months in August, 3.1 months in July, 2.4 months in June, 1.9 months in May, 1.6 months in April and 1.4 months in March. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- Unsold inventory in all home price ranges on a statewide basis increased in December 2022, compared to December 2021, by 92 percent or more. For example, in the final month of the year, the unsold inventory in the $1 million and higher price range gained the most (154.5 percent), followed by the $750,000-$999,000 price range (145.5 percent), the $500,000-$749,000 (136.4 percent) and the sub-$500,000 segment (92.9 percent).

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 28 days in December 2022, 24 days in November 2022 and 12 days in December 2021. Other statewide inventory figures for 2022 include 23 days in October 2022, 22 days in September 2022 and 19 days in August 2022.

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 20 days in December 2022, compared to 18 days in both November 2022 and October 2022 and eight days in December 2021. Other San Diego days-on-market figures for 2022 include 19 days in September, 15 days in August, 10 days in July, eight days in June and seven days in May and April. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Once again, the statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained at below 100 percent in December 2022 at 96.2 percent. A year ago in December 2021, the ratio was 101.2 percent. Other 2022 statewide ratio figures include 96.7 in November, 97.3 percent in October, 97.7 percent in September and 98.4 percent in August. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.36 percent in December, up from 3.10 percent in December 2021, according to Freddie Mac.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

San Diego Home Days on Market for November was 18 Days

Posted by Rick Griffin on Dec 21, 2022 1:46:05 PM

RISING INTEREST RATES DEPRESS HOME SALES, PRICES

Housing demand continued to fall as rising interest rates dampened the California housing market in November 2022.

In November 2022, home sales were at their lowest annualized pace since October 2007 and the largest year-over-year sales drop in the past four decades, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R).

Overall, home sales have been on a downward trend for 17 straight months on a year-over-year basis. November 2022 was the fourth time in the last five months that sales dropped more than 30 percent from the year-ago level.

November 2022’s monthly 13.2 percent sales decline was worse than the long-run average of -0.5 percent change recorded between October and November in the past 43 years.

Sales in all price segments dropped more than 40 percent year-over-year, with the $2 million plus price segment falling the most at 47.7 percent. The most affordable market (sub-$300,000) experienced the smallest sales drop at 41.4 percent.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 237,740 in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

November’s sales pace was down 13.2 percent on a monthly basis from 274,040 in October and down 47.7 percent from a year ago when 454,450 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-to-year sales decline was the biggest since 1980.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 21.2 percent in November 2022.

In San Diego, home sales dropped 44.1 percent in November 2022, compared to a year ago in November 2021, and 11.4 percent lower in a month-over-month comparison with October 2022.

Meanwhile, California’s median home price declined for the third straight month in November 2022, dropping 3.0 percent to $777,500 from the $801,190 recorded in October 2022. November 2022’s price was 0.6 percent lower than the $782,480 recorded a year ago in November 2021. November 2022 also marked the first year-over-year price decline in 30 months. The November 2022 price was also the lowest since February 2022.

November 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

November 2022 County Sales and Price Activity

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County rose 0.6 percent to $865,000 in November 2022, compared to $860,000 in October 2022. The November 2022 median price was 2 percent higher than the year-ago price of $847,750 in November 2021. The median is the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less.

“While interest rates are higher than year-ago levels, they have been declining since early November from the recent peak of over 7 percent,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “With home prices cooling and market competition easing in recent months, some qualified buyers who missed out on the hurried market of the last two years are taking advantage of the shift and finding sellers more willing to negotiate than they have been up to this point.”

“As expected, higher borrowing costs, lower demand, and rising uncertainty finally caused prices to moderate for the first time in more than a decade while home sales dropped further,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With mortgage rates rising at the fastest pace in years, sales and price growth will likely remain on a downward trend in the short term. However, pending sales suggest that the pace of declines should moderate in the coming months.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2022 resale housing report include:

 -- At the regional level, Southern California saw the biggest year-over-year sales drop again as all six counties within the region marked sales declines of more than 44 percent in November 2022.

-- Sharp declines in housing demand continued to apply downward pressure on home prices as median prices in three of the five major regions dropped mildly from a year ago. Southern California’s (0.0 percent) median prices were virtually unchanged or flat on a year-over-year basis, despite having the largest sales drops among all regions in November 2022.

-- More counties began to experience negative price growth in November 2022 as 33 counties registered median prices decline, a jump from 22 counties compared to the prior month.

November 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

November 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- Housing inventory in November 2022 in California continued to rise both month-to-month and year-to-year as the market entered its holiday season and home sellers remained on the sideline. The statewide unsold inventory index was 3.3 months in November 2022 and 3.2 months in October 2022. The November 2022 index was more than double the level of 1.6 months in November 2021.

-- Housing supply in California increased in November 2022 in all price ranges by 88 percent compared to a year ago in November 2021. Unsold inventory in the $1 million+ price range rose the most (128.6 percent), followed by the $500,000-$749,000 price range (113.3 percent), the $750,000- $999,000 (113.3 percent) and the sub-$500,000 (88.9 percent) ranges.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale in November 2022 declined to 2.9 months, compared to 3.0 months in October 2022 and 1.3 months a year ago in November 2021. Other inventory figures in 2022 include 2.7 months in September, 2.5 months in August, 3.1 months in July, 2.4 months in June, 1.9 months in May, 1.6 months in April and 1.4 months in March. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 24 days in November 2022, compared to 23 days in October 2022, 22 days in September 2022, 19 days in August 2022 and 11 November 2021.

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 18 days in both November 2022 and October 2022, compared to 19 days in September 2022 and nine days in November 2021. Other days-on-market figures in 2022 include 15 days in August, 10 days in July, eight days in June and seven days in May and April. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

 -- Once again, the statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained at below 100 percent. It was 96.7 in November 2022, compared to 97.3 percent in October 2022, 97.7 percent in September 2022 and 98.4 percent in August 2022. A year ago in 2021, it was 104 percent in November, 101.5 percent in October, 101.9 percent in September and 102.8 percent in August. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.81 percent in November 2022, up from 3.07 percent in November 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 6.01 percent, compared to 2.51 percent in November 2021.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

SAN DIEGO HOME PRICES DROP TO $860K IN OCT., $899K IN SEPT.

Posted by Rick Griffin on Nov 18, 2022 5:20:00 PM

RISING INTEREST RATES DEPRESS HOME SALES, PRICES

Higher interest rates led to further decline in the California housing market in October 2022 as home sales hit their lowest level since February 2008 with the largest year-over-year decline since December 2007, outside the pandemic.

According to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), year-to-date statewide home sales were down 18.5 percent in October 2022.

Also in October 2022, sales were down 10.4 percent on a monthly basis from 305,680 units sold in September 2022 and down 36.9 percent from a year ago in October 2021, when 434,170 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Overall, statewide home sales have been on a downward trend for 16 straight months on a year-over-year basis. October 2022 was the third time in the last four months that sales dropped more than 30 percent from a year-ago level.

The monthly 10.4 percent sales decline in October 2022 was worse than the long-run average of +0.5 percent change recorded between September and October in the past 43 years.

Sales in all price segments continued to drop by 30 percent or more year-over-year, with the $750,000-$999,000 price segment declining the most at 40.8 percent. The high-end market ($1 million-$1,999,000) experienced the smallest sales drop at 34.1 percent.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 274,040 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

In San Diego County, home sales dropped 40.7 percent in October 2022,  compared to a year ago in October 2021, and 15.6 percent lower in a month-over-month comparison with September 2022.

San Diego’s October 2022 year-over-year drop of 40.7 percent compares to September 2022’s year-over-year drop of 33.2 percent.

Home prices also continued declining statewide and locally.

California’s median home price declined 2.5 percent in October 2022 to $801,190 from the $821,680 price recorded in September 2022. The October 2022 price was a mere 0.3 percent higher than the $798,440 price recorded a year ago in October 2021 and was the smallest year-over-year price gain in 29 months. October 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month with a single-digit annual price increase.

With the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate expected to remain above 6.5 percent for the rest of the year, home prices are expected to moderate even further in the coming months as affordability will remain challenging.

October 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

October 2022 County Sales and Price Activity

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County declined 4.3 percent to $860,000 in October 2022, compared to $899,000 in September 2022. The October 2022 median price was 1.2 percent higher than the year-ago price of $850,000 in October 2021. The median is the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less.

“While October’s sales and price results were weaker than what we’ve experienced in the past couple of years and could slow further in the upcoming off-season, the market bottom could be in sight,” said 2023 C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. “Homes are still selling relatively quickly at 23 days on the market, one in four homes is selling above list price due to limited inventory, and with median price growth remaining positive in four of the five price segments, home prices are holding up reasonably well.”

“Excluding the three-month pandemic lockdown period in spring 2020, October’s sales level was the lowest since February 2008. With pending sales showing a 50 percent drop from a year ago, we can expect additional tempering in housing demand in the coming months, as we previously forecasted,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “Home prices will also moderate further over the next several months as interest rates remain elevated in the near term and seasonal factors come into play.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s October 2022 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, home sales continued to fall sharply from last year, with four of the five major regions falling more than 35 percent from last year. Southern California had the biggest annual drop in sales at 40.8 percent, as every county within the region experienced a sales decline of more than 30 percent in October.

-- At the county level, all but one California county recorded a year-over-year home sales decline in October, with 41 of them plunging more than 20 percent from the same period a year ago.

-- At the county level for home prices, more than half of all counties in California maintained positive year-over-year median-price growth in October 2022. Prices were up from last year by double-digits in eight counties in October 2022 compared to five counties in the prior month.

October 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

October 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- Housing inventory in October 2022 in California rose on a month-to-month basis and year-to-year basis at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Many potential buyers continued to put their home-buying plans on hold. The statewide unsold inventory index increased to 3.3 months in October 2022 from 2.9 months recorded in September 2022 and from 1.8 months recorded a year ago in October 2021.

-- Housing supply in California increased in October 2022 in all price ranges by 75 percent or more overall from a year ago in October 2021. Inventory improved the most (88.2 percent) for homes priced from $500,000 to $749,000. Other inventory increases in percentages included 83.3 percent for homes priced from $750,000 to $999,000, 82.4 percent in the $1 million and up price range, and 75 percent in the sub-$500,000 price range.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale in October 2022 increased to 3.0 months, compared to 2.7 months in September 2022, and 1.5 months a year ago in October 2021. Other inventory figures in 2022 include 2.5 months in August, 3.1 months in July, 2.4 months in June, 1.9 months in May, 1.6 months in April and 1.4 months in March. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 23 days in October 2022, compared to 22 days in September 2022, 19 days in August 2022 and 11 days in October 2021.

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 18 days in October 2022, compared to 19 days in September 2022 and nine days in October 2021. Other days-on-market figures in 2022 include 15 days in August, 10 days in July, eight days in June and seven days in May and April. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Once again, the statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained at below 100 percent. It was 97.3 percent in October 2022, compared to 97.7 percent in September 2022 and 98.4 percent in August 2022. A year ago in 2021, it was 101.5 percent in October, 101.9 percent in September and 102.8 percent in August. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.90 percent in October, up from 3.07 percent in October 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 5.71 percent, compared to 2.54 percent in October 2021.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

DRE Real Estate Fall Bulletin Released.

Posted by Communications on Nov 1, 2022 4:12:19 PM

The California Department of Real Estate released its fall bulletin.  Check out the highlights in this quarter's issue.

In this issue:

New Required CE Coursed Now Available. Licensees renewing for the frst time on or after January 1, 2023, complete a new two-hour course in implicit bias training and a revised three-hour course in fair housing that includes an interactive participatory component

The Important Role of Enforcement in Regulating California’s Real Estate Industry  DRE posts on its website summaries of the most serious enforcement actions taken against licensees, as well as other disciplinary actions. 

Licensees Urged to Protect Themselves from ID Theft Scam  DRE recently issued a statewide Consumer Alert

DRE Stats include a 5% reduction in licensees prior to last year.  5,202 Complaints received.  67,768 exams administered.

External Audit Stats on Property Management, Broker Escrow, Mortgage Loan, and Sales.  Given DRE’s number of auditors as compared to its licensee population, audit efforts in FY 2021-22 focused on brokers who handle a high volume of trust funds. Audit cases completed during the fiscal year revealed a troubling high incidence of trust fund shortages.

Legal Activity, Enforcement, Subdivisions, Communications, and a look forward.

Learn from a wealth of information and insight provided in the Fall Real Estate Bulletin.

Click Here

California DRE Fall Bulleting link

 

Topics: Announcements, Brokers/Managers, Industry

RISING INTEREST RATES DEPRESS HOME SALES, PRICES

Posted by Rick Griffin on Oct 20, 2022 9:29:00 AM

RISING INTEREST RATES DEPRESS HOME SALES, PRICES

Rapidly rising mortgage rates slowed home sales in September 2022 and continued the month-to-month declining trend that began in the spring, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The question up for debate: How low will prices go while mortgage rates soar and demand wanes? Volatile mortgage rates, along with economic uneasiness and inflation, may prompt house hunters to rethink what they’re willing to pay here in the fall.

With mortgage rates rising and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaching 7 percent, home prices and sales are expected to continue dropping in the coming months as affordability remains a challenge.

The continuing price drop is a reversal from the pandemic era’s price boom. And keep in mind, the statewide median price is still up 42 percent from February 2020, which was the last month before COVID-19 upended the economy.

The September 2022 sales pace was down 2.5 percent on a monthly basis from 313,540 in August 2022 and down 30.2 percent from September 2021, when 438,190 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 305,680 in September 2022, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the September 2022 pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Home sales have dipped for 15 straight months on a year-over-year basis. September 2022 was the second time in the last three months that sales have exceeded 30 percent from a year ago.

The monthly 2.5 percent sales decrease was worse than the long-run average of zero percent change recorded between an August and a September in the past 43 years.

September statewide sales in all price segments continued to drop by 25 percent or more year-over-year, with the sub-$300k price range falling the most at 36.7 percent. Sales of million-dollar homes fell by double-digits again for the fourth consecutive month, with the high-end market segment dipping 25.6 percent from the same month last year. 

In San Diego County, home sales dropped 33.2 percent in September 2022, compared to a year ago in September 2021, and 9.5 percent lower in a month-over-month comparison with August 2022. 

Statewide, the median single-family home price fell to $821,680 in September 2022, off 2.1 percent from the $839,460 price in August 2022, up 1.6 percent from the $808,890 price in September 2021, and down 8.7 percent from the $900,000 all-time high set in May 2022.

The statewide median home price continued to increase on a year-over-year basis in September, but the growth rate remained very mild compared to those observed earlier this year.

At an increase of 1.6 percent year-over-year, September 2022 marked the fourth consecutive month with a single-digit annual increase. The less-than-2-percent growth rate in the statewide median price was much lower than the 6-month average growth rate of 6.7 percent recorded between March 2022 and August 2022.

The 2.1 percent, the month-to-month decline in September 2022 was slightly lower than the long-run average of 1.8 percent decrease recorded between an August and a September over the past 43 years.

Locally, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County increased 1.6 percent to $899,000 in September 2022, compared to $885,000 in August 2021. The September 2022 median price was 5.8 percent higher than the year-ago price of $850,000 in September 2021. The median is the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less.

“With interest rates rising rapidly since the beginning of the year, buyers and sellers are having difficulties adapting to the market’s new normal,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. “As the market continues to evolve in the next 12-to-18 months, REALTORS® will be playing an ever-more important role as trusted advisors to guide their clients through the complicated buying and selling process and help them overcome their obstacles during these challenging times.”

“September’s sales and price declines reaffirm our forecast for next year,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “High inflationary pressures will keep mortgage rates elevated, which will reduce homebuyers’ purchasing power and depress housing affordability in the upcoming year. With borrowing costs remaining high in the next 12 months, a pull-back in sales and a downward adjustment in home prices are expected in 2023.” 

Other key points from C.A.R.’s September 2022 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, sales continued to fall sharply from last year, with four of the five major regions falling more than 25 percent from last year. Southern California had the biggest annual drop in sales at 32.6 percent, as every county within the region experienced a sales decline of more than 30 percent in September 2022.

-- All but three counties tracked by C.A.R. posted sales drops from a year ago. Of the counties that recorded sales drops from last September 2021, 45 of them fell more than 10 percent, and 36 counties plunged more than 20 percent from the same month last year.

-- Nearly two-thirds of all California counties experienced an increase in their median prices. Prices were up from last year by double-digits in five counties in September 2022, as compared to seven counties in the prior month.

-- Housing supply in California improved from a year ago and was unchanged in September 2022, compared to August 2022, despite a decline in housing demand. The statewide unsold inventory index was 2.9 months in both September 2022 and August 2022, while the figure was 1.9 months in September 2021.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale increased to 2.7 months in September 2022, compared to 2.5 months in August 2022, and 1.6 months a year ago in September 2021. Other inventory figures in 2022 include 3.1 months in July, 2.4 months in June, 1.9 months in May, 1.6 months in April, and 1.4 months in March. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.

-- With closed sales dropping more than 25 percent and pending sales falling more than 40 percent, active listings have been staying on the market significantly longer, which contributed to a surge in for-sale properties by 51.5 percent in September 2022.

September 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 22 days in September 2022, 19 days in August 2022, and 10 days a year ago in September 2021.

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 19 days in September 2022, compared to 15 days in August 2022, 10 days in July 2022, 8 days in June 2022 and 7 days in May 2022 and April 2022.  A year ago, in September 2021, the figure was 9 days. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

September 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 97.7 percent in September 2022, similar to 98.4 percent in August 2022, which was below 100 percent for the second time since June 2022. The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 101.9 percent in September 2021 and 102.8 percent in August 2021. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio of 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.11 percent in September, up from 2.90 percent in September 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.87 percent, compared to 2.45 percent in September 2021.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

HOME PRICES STABILIZING, SALES HIGHER

Posted by Rick Griffin on Sep 29, 2022 1:53:47 PM

HOME PRICES STABILIZING, SALES HIGHER

California’s housing market in August sees a notable increase in sales - a first in five months. Sales rebounded as home prices are stabilizing. 

For the first time in five months, California home sales increased in August 2022, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The increase in home sales in August was attributed to a brief retreat in mortgage rates that created a slightly more favorable lending environment.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 313,540 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Statewide, the rate of home sales in August 2022 was up 6.1 percent in a monthly comparison with July 2022, when 295,460 homes were sold, and down 24.4 percent from a year ago in August 2021, when 414,860 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

The monthly sales increase for August 2022 was higher than the long-run average of 0.4 percent for July-August in the past 43 years and marked the first monthly sales increase in five months.

In San Diego County, home sales dropped 27.7 percent in August 2022, compared to a year ago in August 2021, but were up 16.3 percent in a month-over-month comparison from July 2022.

Statewide, home prices stabilized in August 2022 as the statewide median price increased on both a monthly and yearly basis, but at a less-than-2-percent growth pace.

The statewide median price edged up 0.7 percent in August 2022 to $839,460 from the $833,910 recorded in July 2022 and was up 1.4 percent from the $827,940 recorded a year ago in August 2021.

The year-over-year price gain was the smallest in more than two years. The nominal price increase was attributed partly to a change in the mix of sales in August. With sales in the million-dollar segment rising 6.8 percent from the prior month, the August 2022 statewide median price also pushed slightly by 0.7 percent from July 2022.

Locally, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County dropped in August 2022 to $885,000, a 4.8 percent decline from the $930,000 median price in July 2022. The August 2022 median price was still 6.0 percent higher than the year-ago price of $835,000 in August 2021. The median is the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less.

“California’s housing market stabilized briefly as a reprieve on mortgage rates in July and early August brought buyers into the market,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker, and REALTOR®. “Active listings have passed their annual peak, and while homes are taking slightly longer to sell, the share of homes seeing price reductions has also stabilized to near pre-pandemic levels. Price growth in August picked up on both a monthly and annual basis, and pending sales suggest a bounce-back for homes priced $2 million and above.”

“It’s encouraging to see that August’s sales pace rebounded above an annualized 300,000 units sold,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “Although we do not expect a rapid bounce-back because the Fed is expected to continue raising interest rates to get inflation under control, the monthly increase in closed and pending sales suggests that the market may have already priced in most of the rate increases to date. Still, buyers will continue to grapple with rising costs of borrowing, which will keep home sales below the 350,000 annualized pace for the remainder of the year.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s August 2022 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, sales continued to fall sharply from last year, but the declines in August 2022 moderated slightly from the prior month. Southern California dropped 28.8 percent in a year-over-year comparison.

-- Forty-seven California counties experienced a year-over-year sales decline in August 2022, and 30 of them plunged more than 20 percent.

-- More than two-thirds of all California counties experienced a year-over-year increase in their median prices in August 2022, but their growth rates have been decelerating in the past three months.

-- Housing supply in California improved in August 2022 from a year ago but tightened slightly from July 2022, as housing demand rose in August. The statewide unsold inventory index decreased to 2.9 months in August 2022, compared to 3.2 months in July, but the figure was higher than 1.9 months a year ago in July 2022. Weaker demand continued to be the primary factor for the improvement in the index.

-- With both closed sales and pending sales slowing by more than 20 percent, active listings have been staying on the market longer, resulting in a year-over-year surge of 57.1 percent in homes for sale in August 202.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale dropped to 2.5 months in August 2022, compared to 3.1 months in July 2022, 2.4 months in June 2022, 1.9 months in May 2022, 1.6 months in April 2022, 1.4 months in March 2022 and 1.7 months in August 2021. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.


-- Forty-seven of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. recorded an increase in active listings on a year-over-year basis in August 2022, a slight increase from July 2022’s 46 counties.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 19 days in August 2022, 14 days in July 2022, and 9 days in August 2021.

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 15 days in August 2022, compared to 10 days in July 2022, 8 days in June 2022, 7 days in May 2022, and April 2022. A year ago, in August 2021, the figure was 8 days. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

August 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
blog_220923_chart1


-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.4 percent in August 2022, which was below 100 percent for the first time since June 2020. The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 102.8 percent in August 2021. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio of 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold is below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 5.22 percent in August, up from 2.84 percent in August 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.36 percent, compared to 2.42 percent in August 2021.

(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)blog_220923_chart2

-- The statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent at 101.3 percent in Jun 2022, compared to 103.4 percent in May 2022, 104.2 percent in April 2022, 103.3 percent in March 2022, and 104.1 percent in June 2021. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio of 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 5.52 percent in June, up from 2.98 percent in June 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.28 percent, compared to 2.56 percent in June 2021.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

San Diego Home Sales Down 31% in July

Posted by Rick Griffin on Aug 3, 2022 10:00:00 AM

San Diego Home Sales Down 31% in July

Housing demand in California’s housing market cooled even further in July 2022, as the effects of rising interest rates and high home prices dragged down the efforts of would-be homebuyers, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). Statewide home sales dropped below the annualized 300,000 benchmark for the first time since May 2020.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 295,460 in July, according to information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Statewide, the rate of homes sales in July 2022 was down 14.4 percent on a monthly comparison with June 2022, when 344,970 homes were sold, and down 31.1 percent from a year ago in July 2021, when 428,980 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

July 2022 marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the 13th straight annual decline.

In San Diego County, home sales dropped 41.1 percent in July 2022, compared to a year ago in July 2021, and 21.4 percent decline in a month-over-month comparison from June 2022. July’s 41 percent year-over-year drop follows a 30.5 percent drop in June 2022, compared to June 2021.

Statewide, the median home price in July 2022 declined 3.5 percent to $833,910 from the $863,790 price recorded in June 2022. The July 2022 price was 2.8 percent higher than the $811,170 recorded in July 2021. The July 2022 price was the smallest year-over-year price gain in more than two years.

The price moderation is largely attributed to a change in the mix of sales in July, as million-dollar home sales plummeted nearly 25 percent from June.

In San Diego County, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County declined in July 2022 by $20,000, or 2.1 percent, to $930,000, compared to $950,000 in June 2022. The July 2022 median price was still 8.1 percent higher from the year-ago price of $860,000 in July 2021. The median is the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less.

“In the midst of the peak home-buying season, high home prices and rising interest rates depressed housing affordability to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, which in turn dampened home sales,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. “However, buying opportunities remain in the coming months for those who have been waiting on the sideline as more listings become available, competition continues to cool off and rates begin to stabilize.”

“Home sales have taken a trouncing as the market has shifted in response to the recent surge in interest rates, and pending sales suggest that the market could remain soft in August,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “The pace of sales declines is expected to slow in the coming months, however, as rates continue to stabilize, market volatility begins to subside and supply conditions further normalize.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s July 2022 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, sales continued to decline sharply with three of the five major regions dropping more than 30 percent from last year. The Central Coast region experienced the biggest drop of all regions, with sales plummeting 37.3 percent from a year ago. The San Francisco Bay Area followed closely with the second-largest decline (-37.2 percent). Southern California also recorded a 36.9 percent drop from July 2021.

-- Nearly 80 percent of all California counties continued to record an increase in their median prices on a year-over-year basis. Price growth rates, however, were more moderate compared to a couple of months ago when the state set its new record high.

-- The overall supply conditions in California loosened again, with the statewide unsold inventory index rising from 1.9 months in July 2021 to 3.2 months in July 2022, the highest level since May 2020. The improvement in the index was primarily due to a pullback in demand.

July 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

July 2022 County Sales and Price Activity

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale in July 2022 was 3.1 months, compared to 2.4 months in June 2022, 1.9 months in May 2022, 1.6 months in April 2022, and 1.4 months in March 2022 and 1.5 months in June 2022. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.

-- Forty-six of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. registered a year-over-year increase in active listings in July, compared to 44 counties in June.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 14 days in July and 8 days in July 2021.

July 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

July 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in July 2022 was 10 days, compared to 8 days in June 2022, 7 days in May 2022, and April 2022. A year ago, in July 2021, the figure was 7 days. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 5.41 percent in July, up from 2.87 percent in July 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.29 percent, compared to 2.49 percent in July 2021.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

2022 Summer DRE Bulletin

Posted by PSAR Communication on Jul 26, 2022 1:16:58 PM

DRE Commissioner Douglas McCauley releaseS the Summer DRE Bulletin.

  • Comments on the housing shortage and adaptive reuse or converting a building from one use to another.
  • Senate Bill 263 (SB 263), amended the continuing education requirements for real estate licensees becomes effective January 1, 2023.
  • DRE Survey, Realtors, please comment.  The Commissioner is looking for feedback.
  • Continuing Education (CE) audits
  • Trust Fund Signatories. Can a property owner sign on a real estate broker’s trust account? Can a real estate broker sign on the property owner’s general account?
  • California’s Call to Action: Build 2.5 Million Homes in the Next Eight Years
  • California Mortgage Relief Program
  • Mortgage Loan Servicers and the Foreclosure Process
  • Advertising Guidelines and the Use of Former Surnames and Nicknames

READ The Entire Bulletin Here

dre bulletin summer 2022

 

  

 

 

Topics: Education, Announcements, Brokers/Managers

MEDIAN HOME PRICES DECLINES $20K IN JUNE TO $950K

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jul 20, 2022 2:00:00 PM

MARCH MEDIAN HOME PRICE HITS $950K, A 1-YEAR JUMP OF $150K

California’s housing market in June 2022 continued to downshift as housing demand logged its biggest dip since May 2020, cooling to levels not seen in the past two years.

The latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) also showed San Diego County’s home sales dropping 30.5 percent in June 2022, compared to June 2021, and a 6.4 percent decline from May 2022.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 344,970 in June 2022, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the June pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The sales pace in June 2022 was down 8.4 percent on a monthly comparison with May 2022 when 376,560 homes were sold and down 20.9 percent from a year ago in June 2021, when 436,020 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Home sales again dipped below the 400,000 level for the second time since June 2020.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 10.9 percent in June 2022.

Meanwhile, California’s median home price in June 2022 declined 4.0 percent to $863,790 from the revised record-high of $900,170 recorded in May 2022. The June 2022 price was 5.4 percent higher than the $819,630 recorded in June 2021.

In San Diego, the median price of a single-family home in June 2022 declined by $20,000, or 2.1 percent, to $950,000, compared to $970,000 in May 2022. The June 2022 median price was still 9.8 percent higher from the year-ago price of $865,000 in June 2021. The median is the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less.

The moderation in the median home price was due partly to a change in the mix of sales in June, as the high-end market started pulling back.

After increasing for four consecutive months, the share of million-dollar home sales dipped as sales in the higher-price segment dropped 8.3 percent from the prior month. Sales of homes priced at $2 million and higher plummeted 17.9 percent from May 2022. On the other hand, the sub-$500,000 market increased 2.1 percent on a month-to-month basis in June 2022.

Price moderation is expected to continue in July as sharp declines in pending sales in the upper-price segments may drag the statewide median price in the upcoming months.

“California’s housing market continues to moderate from the frenzied levels seen in the past two years, which is creating favorable conditions for buyers who lost offers or sat out during the fiercely competitive market,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. “With interest rates moving sideways in recent weeks and fewer homes now selling above listing price, prospective buyers have the rare opportunity to see more listings coming onto the market and face less competition that could force them to engage in a bidding war.” 

“Excluding the three-month pandemic lockdown period in 2020, June’s sales level was the lowest since April 2008. Pending sales data also suggests we can expect additional retreating in the coming months,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With inflation remaining high and interest rates expected to climb further in the coming months, the market will normalize further in the second half of the year with softer sales and more moderate price growth.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s June 2022 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, all major regions experienced double-digit declines in June 2022, compared to June 2021, with three of the five regions falling by more than 25 percent on a year-over-year basis. Southern California had the biggest drop of all regions, with sales plunging 27.1 percent from a year ago.

-- At the regional level, home prices in all major California regions increased in price from last year with the Central Coast leading the way at 10.1 percent increase, followed by Central Valley (10.0 percent) and Southern California (8.4 percent).

-- The overall supply conditions in California improved again in June 2022, with the statewide unsold inventory index rising to 2.5 months, the highest level in two years. The improvement in the index was partly due to an increase in supply and partly due to a pullback in demand. The June 2022 inventory level compared to 2.1 months in May 2022, 1.8 months in April 2022, 1.7 months in March 2022 and 1.7 months in June 2021.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale in June 2022 was 2.4 months, compared to 1.9 months in May 2022, 1.6 months in April 2022, 1.4 months in March 2022 and 1.5 months in June 2022. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

June 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

June 2022 County Sales and Price Activity

-- With both closed sales and pending sales slowing by more than 20 percent, total active listings surged 64.4 percent in June 2022, the largest year-over-year growth in more than seven years. Active listings in June 2022 also climbed to the highest level since November 2019, with a month-to-month increase of 28.8 percent from May.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 11 days in June 2022, compared to 9 days in May 2022 and 8 days in June 2022.

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in June 2022 was 8 days, compared to 7 days in May 2022 and April 2022. A year ago, in June 2021, the figure was 6 days. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

June 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

June 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- The statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent at 101.3 percent in Jun 2022, compared to 103.4 percent in May 2022, 104.2 percent in April 2022, 103.3 percent in March 2022 and 104.1 percent in June 2021. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 5.52 percent in June, up from 2.98 percent in June 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.28 percent, compared to 2.56 percent in June 2021.

Topics: Brokers/Managers, Market Information

Registered vs. Coming Soon

Posted by PSAR Communication on Jul 14, 2022 12:35:04 PM

 

Registered vs Coming Soon

Click here to view the Registered FAQ and Click here to view the Coming Soon FAQ.

For an updated printable PDF of this checklist, go here.
Download the coming soon form to be signed by sellers here.

coming soon vs registered

 

1 Registered listing contracts do not enter the MLS per the seller’s instructions, either temporarily or for the whole term
of the listing. They are not “in” the MLS. Only the listing agent, listing broker, and office manager, and Association/CRMLS staff can view Registered listings.

2 Agents may treat a Coming Soon listing like an Active listing that no one can show for 21 days and that does not go out via listing distribution feeds (Realtor.com, etc.). Click here to learn more about IDX and listing distribution.

3 If agents are using the C.A.R. form RLA dated 6/2020 and option 7.D.1 is complete, agents do not need an additional
exclusion form. Agents do not need to submit exclusion forms to CRMLS. However, they do need to keep the signed and completed form(s) on file with the brokerage and provide them if the CRMLS Compliance Department requests them.

4 Agents may only show Registered listings to clients of the listing brokerage firm. CRMLS defines a “client” as an individual or entity that has signed, within the previous year, a Disclosure Regarding Real Estate Agency Relationship form in Compliance with CA Civil Code section 2079.16 which identifies the Listing Broker.

5 Coming Soon listings in San Diego County will go out to IDX feeds for applicable brokers. Applicable brokers are those
who participate in CRMLS and have Coming Soon listings for properties in San Diego County, regardless of their MLS
system or Association or Board membership. This does not affect any CRMLS listings outside of San Diego County.

6 Agents may only use the Coming Soon status for a maximum of 21 days from the date of entry. On day 22, the MLS system will move the listing into Active status. Please note: Agents may list New Construction Listings under the status of Coming Soon for longer than 21 days (until a notice of occupancy is issued), per Rule 7.18.4 of the CRMLS Rules and Regulations.

7. Information provided by CRMLS and current as of 7-14-2022.  Rules constantly change. Check the CRMLS knowledge base for updated rules and changes.  

Topics: Brokers/Managers, CRMLS, Paragon