HOME SALES AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE GREAT RECESSION

California home sales in November 2023 registered the biggest monthly decline in the past year and dropped to the lowest level since the Great Recession, 16 years ago, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).  Elevated borrowing costs were blamed for the low home sales statewide.

In San Diego County, sales of existing, single-family homes in November 2023 decreased by 16.9 percent in a month-over-month comparison with October 2023. The sales pace was 12.2 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with November 2022.

Also, in San Diego County in November 2023, the median home sales price for an existing, single-family detached home was $952,000, which was a 1.7 percent difference from October 2023, when the median price was $936,250. A year ago, in November 2022, the median home sales price $865,000, a difference of 10.1 percent with November 2023.

November 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Statewide, the numbers for home sales and home prices in November 2023 showed a suppressed California housing market.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 223,940 homes sold in November 2023, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The statewide sales pace in November 2023 was down 7.4 percent on a monthly basis compared to October 2023, when 241,770 homes were sold, and down 5.8 percent from a year ago in November 2022, when a revised 237,730 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 250,000-unit pace for the third consecutive month. The annual decline was the 29th straight drop, but the decline was the smallest in the last 20 months.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 25.9 percent in November 2023.

Median home prices on a statewide basis took at step backwards in November 2023, compared to the previous month, but rose in a year-over-year comparison for the fifth straight month. The year-over-year price gain was the largest in 18 months.

California’s statewide median price decreased 2.2 percent from October’s $840,360 to $822,200 in November 2023, and rose 6.2 percent from a revised $774,150 recorded a year ago in November 2022. The median represents a price where half of the total number of homes sold above it and half below.

The statewide monthly price decline was the largest in 10 months but was smaller than the October-to-November average price adjustment of minus 2.5 percent observed over the past five years.

“Elevated mortgage interest rates and a persistent shortage of homes for sale hindered home sales in November,” said 2024 C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. “With mortgage rates dropping to the lowest level in four months in recent weeks and the Federal Reserve indicating it plans to cut rates more than previously anticipated in 2024, more prospective homebuyers could reenter the market early next year.”

“While sales have been weak for the past several months, a tight supply of homes for sale is keeping home prices from falling,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “Going into 2024, the recent decline in mortgage rates, along with the upward momentum in home prices, could motivate more would-be sellers to list their homes for sale in the spring home-buying season.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2023 resale housing report include:

• At the regional level for Southern California, year-over-year sales declined in November 2023 by 5.6 percent. In October 2023, the figure was 7.4 percent.
  
  
• At the regional level for Southern California, median home prices in November 2023 increased from a year ago by 9.9 percent. It was the biggest year-over-year gain of any the statewide regions tracked by C.A.R. In October 2023, the increase was 6.5 percent.
  
  
• Housing inventory improved in November 2023, compared to October 2023. However, the improvement was due mostly to the sales decline rather than an increase in active listings.
  
  
• The statewide unsold inventory index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, increased 11.1 percent in November 2023 on a month-over-month basis to 3.0 months, compared to October 2023 at 2.7 months, but fell below last year’s level by 6.3 percent to 3.2 months in November 2022.
  
  
• In San Diego County in November 2023, the inventory of available inventory of homes for sale was 2.5 months, compared to 2.3 months in October 2023 and 2.9 months in November 2022. Other unsold inventory figures on a monthly basis in 2023 in San Diego included 2.5 months in September, 1.9 months in August, 2.0 months in July, 2.0 months in June, 1.7 months in May, 1.9 months in April, 1.7 months in March, 2.3 months in February and 2.7 months in January. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

November 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

• Active listings at the state level dipped again in November 2023 on a year-over year basis for the eighth straight month. The decline in each of the last seven months all registered more than 10 percent year-over-year.

• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 21 days in November 2023 and 29 days in November 2022.
  
  
• In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home was 15 days in November 2023, compared to 14 days in October 2023 and 22 days in November 2022. Other median-time-on-the-market figures on a monthly basis for San Diego in 2023 include 14 days in September, 13 days in August, 12 days in July, 11 days in June, 12 days in May and April, 15 days in March, 17 days in February and 26 days in January. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.
  
  
• C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 100 percent in November 2023 and 96.7 percent in November 2022.
  
  
• The statewide, sales-price-to-list-price ratio on a monthly basis in 2023 was at 100 percent in November, October, September, August, July, June, May and April, 99.1 percent in March, 97.7 percent in February and 96.5 percent in January. A year ago, in November 2022, the ratio was 96.7 percent. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
  
  
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.44 percent in November 2023, up from 6.81 percent in November 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.