San Diego County’s housing market saw a slight increase in home sale prices but a drop in the number of sales in November 2019, according to a recent report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in November, 2019 was $659,000, compared to $652,000 in October, 2019 and $626,000 in November, 2018. That’s an increase of only 1.1 percent comparing November to October. 2019, and an increase of 5.3 percent in a comparison of November, 2019 to November, 2018.

Meanwhile, San Diego home sales in November, 2019 saw a decrease of 9.3 percent, compared to October, 2019, but a 10 percent increase in a comparison of November, 2019 to November, 2018.

Statewide, it was a different story in November 2019, when home sales and prices retreated.

The statewide median price decreased by 2.6 percent from $605,280 in October, 2019 to $589,770 in November 2019, marking the first time in seven months the median price was under $600,000. November, 2019’s median price was up 6.4 percent from $554,240 in November, 2018. The year-over-year price increase was the largest gain in nearly a year and a half since July 2018.

The number of closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide in November 2019 was down 0.3 percent to 402,880, compared to 404,240 in October, 2019, but up 5.6 percent from home sales in November, 2018 with a revised total of 381,690. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 1.9 percent in November, 2019.

The statewide annualized sales figure based on information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

After 15 straight months of year-over-year increases, active listings fell for the fifth straight month, dropping 22.5 percent from year ago. The decline was the third consecutive double-digit drop and the largest since April 2013. The sharp drop in active listings and slight uptick in year-over-year sales put a dent in housing inventory. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 3.1 months in November, up slightly from 3.0 months in October but down sharply from 3.7 months in November 2018. It was the second lowest level in the last 17 months. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

“While statewide home sales and prices eased back slightly as the housing market continued to move into the off season, a favorable lending environment continues to draw interest from buyers who want to take advantage of low rates,” said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. “The upper end of the market, in particular, is showing some welcomed improvement in recent months as both sales and prices posted mild growth from a year ago in November.”

 “We’re seeing a more robust market in the second half of the year, driven primarily by the lowest interest rates in nearly three years,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “While uncertainties and supply constraints will continue to dictate the market outlook in 2020, the California housing market will likely wrap up 2019 in slightly better shape than previously thought.”  

With prices rising faster in recent months while supply continued to shrink, home sellers’ optimism improved both month-over-month and year-over-year. According to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in December, slightly more than half (51 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, up from 47 percent a month ago, and up from 46 percent a year ago. Buyers, however, remain uncertain about the current housing market conditions as less than one-fourth of respondents (24 percent) believe that it is a good time to buy now, lower than last year (25 percent), when interest rates were more than 100 basis points higher.

Other key points from the November 2019 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, non-seasonally adjusted sales rose on an annual basis in all major regions, except the San Francisco Bay Area. Southern California increased the most at 4.6 percent, followed by Central Coast (1.0 percent) and Central Valley (0.6 percent).

-- Also, regionally speaking, median home prices rose from a year ago in all major regions with Southern California recording the largest gain (7.5 percent), followed by Central Valley (6.3 percent), Central Coast (3.3 percent) and the Bay Area (2.2 percent).

-- In the Southern California region, median home prices grew in every county, led by Los Angeles County, which recorded a 7.4 percent jump from a year ago. The six counties in the Southern California region posted an average year-to-year price gain of 5 percent in November.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home fell from a year ago, declining to 25 days in November 2019 from 28 days in November 2018.  That compares to 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market in November 2019 decreased five days in a year-over-year comparison, from 22 days in November 2018 to 17 days in November 2019.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.4 percent in November, 2019, up from 97.9 percent in November, 2018. That compares to 98.5 percent in October and September, 2019, 98.7 percent in August, 2019 and 99.0 percent in July 2019. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.70 percent in November, down from 4.87 percent in November, 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.41 percent, compared to 4.11 percent in November, 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- San Diego will be the hottest major home market for California in 2020, according to a group of more than 100 economists and housing experts who participated in a Zillow study. The experts are predicting a more sluggish year of price increases across the nation, but a quarter of panelists expect San Diego home values will grow faster than the national rate, 39 percent said they would grow slower and 37 percent said it would be able the same.

-- Also according to Zillow, the median value of a single-family home was $600,560 in November, marking a 1.7 percent year-over-year increase. Nationwide, the home value growth in November reached its lowest point since January, 2013.

-- According to CoreLogic, San Diego County’s median home price hit an all-time high of $594,455 in November 2019, pushed up by declining inventory and dropping interest rates. The previous high in the county was $590,000 in June 2019.

-- The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report shows a marked slowdown in residential real estate appreciation in San Diego, with a 0.2 percent price decline in October, 2019 and a revised estimate of no change in September, 2019. Nevertheless, San Diego prices were still 2.9 percent higher in October, 2019 compared to a year ago.

-- San Diego County continues to be one of the least affordable markets to buy a home in the U.S., according to an Attom Data Solutions report. The real estate analytics company found that a San Diegan with an annual wage of $62,907 would need to spend 63.1 percent of his or her income to buy a $570,000 home.

-- San Diego County experienced the largest decline in active listing inventory in the nation in November, 2019, falling 28.1 percent in a year-over-year comparison, according to a Realtor.com report. The online real estate data company also said the region's median list price rose 8.4 percent year-over-year in November. Realtor.com placed the median listing price of a single-family home in San Diego at $715,000.

-- The amount of money that San Diegans spent on rent has increased greatly over the past 10 years. Renters in San Diego County spent $86.2 billion on housing over the decade as rent prices steadily increased, according to Zillow. From January 2010 to December 2019, San Diegans saw the amount they spent on rent increase 53.6 percent. That’s based on a Zillow estimate of median rent in January, 2010 of $1,997 a month and $2,548 a month now.

-- San Diego ended the year with the distinction of being the ninth most expensive rental market among the 10 largest U.S. cities. Zumper, a national online rental listings site, reported that the median monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Diego was $1,780 in December. A two bedroom apartment went for $2,350. Tech-mecca San Francisco was the priciest U.S. rental market at $3,490 for a one-bedroom unit and $4,500 for two.

-- The unemployment rate in San Diego County remained at near 20-year lows in November 2019 at 2.9 percent. San Diego County’s jobless rate is one of the lowest in California and below the national rate of 3.3 percent. San Diego’s rate hit 2.7 percent in May, based on revised numbers, which was the lowest since December 1999.

PSAR recently honored seven REALTOR® members who have achieved Emeritus status with the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

These PSAR members have maintained their NAR membership for 40 consecutive years or more. They were recognized earlier this month at Rally & Ride meetings and received a certificate and an Emeritus lapel pin as symbols of their status. Each lapel pin features four rubies reflecting 40 years of dedicated service.

The Emeritus designation means payment of NAR dues will be waived for the reminder of their membership and they will be exempt from the Code of Ethics Training requirement.

The seven PSAR REALTOR® members are Dawn and Russ August, Joe Garzanelli, Jacqueline McWay, Eleanor “Ellie” Mello, Lydia Painter and Marilyn Schweer. The group has a combined total experience in real estate of nearly 300 years.

Dawn and Russ August have lived in Alpine since 1975, after relocating from Michigan. “Right after the wedding, we quit our jobs, loaded-up our stuff and drove cross-country to San Diego,” said Dawn. “We ended-up in Chula Vista looking for rentals. We asked about living in the country and somebody said to visit Alpine. We have never left.”

Joe Garzinelli has nearly 50 years of experience in the real estate industry. He is the owner of Keller Williams Realty 

San Diego East Foothills in El Cajon, the largest residential real estate office in San Diego’s East County region. He opened his Keller Williams office in March 2011. Previously, he managed and owned several other real estate offices, including those that grew to be ranked among the top-producing brokerages in the nation.The Augusts earned their real estate sales licenses in 1977 and opened their own office in August 1979. They were affiliated with Coldwell Banker from 1990 to 2016 before returning to operate an independent office called Alpine Premier Properties.

Joe is active in the community, providing support to several nonprofits and engaging in charitable volunteer work. He was honored as the 2017 El Cajon Citizen of the Year.

Jacqueline McWay, who goes by Jackie, earned her real estate sales license on Dec. 22, 1975. She had previously worked as a legal secretary for 11 years. “I loved not being confined to an office all day. That’s why I liked real estate so much,” she said. “I started back when we used Thomas Brothers maps and we would follow the sign company installer in our cars to find out the latest new listings because the hot sheet came out only once a week.”

Ellie Mello has lived in San Diego since 1975. In 1976, she started her real estate career with a Forest E. Olson office. In 1996, she started her open company called Compass Real Estate and Property Management in Chula Vista. She recently completed serving as the 2018-2019 President of the Veterans of Foreign Wars Auxiliary (VFW) for the State of California. The state has 162 VFW auxiliaries in 16 separate districts with a membership of more than 21,000.Jackie remains active in real estate sales, often with longtime clients.

 “I have worked with the same families on multiple deals and sold the same property two or three times. I still do my business the old-fashioned way, I meet with clients at their residences,” she said.

How has she survived more than 40 years in such a competitive business? Ellie replied,

Lydia Painter, who was born in Shanghai, China, has been selling real estate for 45 years. After graduating from the University of Colorado, she worked as a teacher for a brief time before starting her real estate career.“You take one day at a time, never give up trying and thank God for your blessings. I surround myself with positive people, like the great staff at PSAR who are always willing to lend a hand. I hope I display that helpful willingness when I’m around newcomers.”

“I have sold homes all over California, and even in Washington state and Hawaii,” she said. “I liked the flexible hours so I could stay home when the kids were young and still make my own appointments. I enjoy it very much and I enjoy my clients very much. I plan to work as long as I’m able. I enjoy real estate so much that I call it my second religion.” She is still active in the profession, although she has been recently dealing with various health issues.

Marilyn Schweer grew up in La Mesa and stated selling real estate in 1978. “It has been a great career for me,” she said. “I have met so many fabulous agents and worked with so many wonderful clients. It has been so awesome to be my clients’ REALTOR®.”

Marilyn was one of the planners of a fashion show organized by the East County Association of REALTORS® that was held for 10 years throughout the 1980s and 1990s. For the past few years, Marilyn and husband George Serochi have enjoyed spending more time at their condo in Maui. “We’ve been taking advantage of one of the many benefits of working in real estate,” she said.

In January, longtime PSAR member Isabel Hall is scheduled to receive her Emeritus lapel pin and certificate. Isabel started her real estate career in 1974, the same year she joined PSAR.  In 1987, Isabel joined McMillin Realty, where she served for 15 years as their General Manager.

Of its 1.4 million members as of November 2019, NAR has 14,682 active REALTOR® emeritus members.

REALTOR® Emeritus qualifications are changing. In the future, forty years of NAR membership will no longer be enough to qualify members for Emeritus status. Beginning in 2020, the service qualification will change so that at least one year of service at the national level only will be required, in addition to the 40-year membership. Service at the state or local level will not be considered. Service at the national level will include acting as an officer, director, committee member, federal political coordinator, president’s liaison or regional coordinator to a country with which NAR has a reciprocal agreement.

During this holiday season, it’s encouraging to hear an inspirational story about the kindness and goodness of a PSAR REALTOR®. Especially when the PSAR member considered his selfless act of sacrifice to be “no big deal.” Following is one such story.  REALTOR®s

Our story begins with a 911 call from a condo on Fourth Avenue in Chula Vista. It was 9 a.m. this past week. Police and an ambulance had responded. A 63-year-old woman (name withheld upon request) had passed away from natural causes following several years of failing health. The woman’s longtime companion, a 70-year-old man named Steve, was distraught and in deep grief.

Also responding to the 911 call was Scott Vinson Sr., a long-time broker in the South Bay and volunteer with the Chula Vista Citizens Adversity Support Team (CAST).

CAST volunteers are dedicated to assisting emotionally traumatized people during emergency situations. They are trained to assist the victims of trauma who may need emotional support, counseling, advocacy and referrals to community resources. They are respectful, calm, support without judgment and are great listeners to people who may be experiencing the absolute worst day of their lives.

According to Scott, “The police had major concerns about the elderly gentleman’s state of mind and his ability to cope with the death of his girlfriend. The man did mention any next of kin to either himself or the deceased. All were concerned about his personal safety. The first to respond were discussing the possibility of a psychiatric evaluation."

“Grief is something that can result in a range of emotions. Some people will stuff it, push it down, pretend it’s not there, act like it doesn’t exist. It’s even tougher to cope without the support of nearby family members.”

After nearly two hours, the elderly man finally looked at Scott and said he only had one friend who could be contacted. It was a fellow broker and PSAR member. His name was Andrew Schmidt.

“I was impressed that of all the people in the world, this man’s closest friend was a REALTOR®,” said Scott. “Sometimes, REALTORS® get a bad rap or a bad reputation. But, we can make a huge impact on people’s lives when we do our jobs right. This event made me even prouder to be a REALTOR®.”

Andrew arrived on the scene and hugged the grieving Steve. “Andrew then agreed to take over, remain with the guy and help stabilize him,” said Scott.

“It was really no big deal what I did,” said Andrew, who has been a PSAR member since 2007. The native of Oregon City, Oregon, has lived in San Diego since 2004.

According to Andrew, “I first met Steve back in 2007. He was sitting outside my office on National City Boulevard in National City. He had just moved here from Florida and didn’t know anybody in town and he didn’t have a home. Over the years, I’ve helped him with four different deals, including a home purchase and three condos.

“More importantly, we’ve become close friends. I call him every couple of days. We talk about life. He doesn’t have any family members anywhere. I’m the closest person he knows.

But, to me, that's a description of a REALTOR®. The best REALTORS® become friends with their clients. I know that PSAR members can relate to what I’m saying. We all have a handful of clients whom we really care about. And, we are willing to go the extra mile to help people.

I feel so blessed to be in real estate. And, I want to make sure that I’m paying it back. If somebody needs help, I’m there. But, REALTORS® do that on a regular basis. We will set-aside everything and go help someone in need. I don’t want to be a stingy zero sort-of guy.

Happiness comes from serving and giving in life. A happy heart comes from generosity and shifting the focus away from yourself. A person who thinks only about him or herself is pretty miserable. So, if you truly want to be happy in life change your focus, be unselfish, pay attention to others and care about the needs of those around you. You have to be focused on the needs of others or you will miss opportunities.”

Andrew is helping Steve with the arrangements of a memorial service for the deceased woman. Also, Andrew is planning to hire a house-cleaner for Steve’s home.

“Helping others is what being a REALTOR® is all about,” said Andrew. “REALTORS® can have a lot of influence by helping others. We can speak up for those in need of help . We can be a raincoat during the storms of life. No matter which of our friends or family members are going through a storm, we can all help each other because no one has it all together. People who are committed to one another will protect each other in tough times.

“We’re not on earth just to live for ourselves. We’re here to make the world a better place. We’re here to spread love and peace and care for one another, help one another and support one another. Nothing is insignificant when we’re serving each other.”

San Diego County’s housing market saw an optimistic increase in home sale prices and number of sales in October 2019, according to a recent report from California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in October, 2019 was $652,000, compared to $636,750 in September, 2019 and $635,500 in October, 2018. That’s an increase of 2.4 percent in October, 2019, when compared to September, 2019, and a 2.6 percent increase when compared to October, 2018.

Meanwhile, San Diego home sales in October, 2019 saw an increase of 1.7 percent, over those of September, 2019, with an 11.2 percent increase in sales over October, 2018.

Statewide, it’s a different story for the housing market. Shrinking inventory subdued California home sales and held home sales and prices steady in October, 2019.

The median price in October, 2019, slipped 0.1 percent to $605,280, compared to $605,680 in September, 2019. In a comparison to October, 2018, the median price in October, 2019 was up 6.0 percent from last year’s $571,070 figure. The annual price gain was the largest since July, 2018.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 2.6 percent in October, 2019. Statewide, existing, single-family home sales totaled 404,240 in October, 2019, on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 0.1 percent from September, 2019’s figure of 404,030, and up 1.9 percent from home sales in October, 2018 whose revised total was 396,720.

After 15 straight months of year-over-year increases, active listings statewide fell for the fourth straight month as of October 2019, dropping 18.0 percent from a year ago. The decline was the largest since May 2013.

“The California housing market continued to see gradual improvement in recent months, as the current mortgage environment remains favorable to those who want to buy a home,” said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. “With interest rates remaining historically low for the foreseeable future, motivated buyers finding that homes are slightly more affordable, may seize the opportunity and resume their home search. Additionally, the condominium loan policies that went into effect mid-October could help buyers for whom single-family homes are out of reach.”, she stated.

“The latest surge in home prices is the consequence of an ongoing mismatch between supply and demand,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “While low interest rates will reduce borrowing costs for buyers and temporarily alleviate affordability concerns at the micro level, without an increase in housing supply, including new housing construction for sale or rent, fundamental issues remain at the macro level, which will worsen the affordability crisis down the road.”, she explained.

Even with near record low mortgage rates, consumers still see challenges in the current housing market conditions. According to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in November, less than one-fourth of respondents (24 percent) believe that it is a good time to buy now. This figure is lower than last year (27 percent), when interest rates were more than 100 basis points higher. Less than half (47 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, down from 51 percent a year ago.

Other key points from the October 2019 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, non-seasonally adjusted sales rose on an annual basis in all major regions. Central Valley increased the most at 7.1 percent, followed by Southern California (7.0 percent), Central Coast (3.9 percent) and the Bay Area (1.4 percent). 

-- Also, regionally speaking, median home prices rose from a year ago in all major regions except the San Francisco Bay Area. In the Southern California region, median home prices increased  in every county, led by San Bernardino County, which recorded a 10.4 percent jump from a year ago.

-- The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 3.0 months in October 2019, down from 3.6 in both September 2019 and October 2018. It was the lowest level since June 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home fell from a year ago, declining from 26 days in October 2018 to 24 days in October 2019. That compares to 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market stood at 18 days in October 2019. That compares to 18 days in September 2019, 17 days in August 2019, 15 days in July 2019, 13 days in June 2019, 14 days in May 2019, 17 days in April 2019, 19 days in March 2019, 22 days in February 2019 and 24 days in October 2018.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.5 percent in October 2019, unchanged from September 2019 and up from 98.1 percent in October 2018. The ratio was 98.7 percent in August 2019 and 99.0 percent in July 2019. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking (list) price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.69 percent in October 2019, down from 4.83 percent in October 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The decrease of 114 basis points for the 30-year fixed-mortgage rate was the largest decline in any 12-month period since November 2009. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.38 percent, compared to 4.08 percent in October 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- San Diego County experienced the largest decline in active listing inventory in the nation, falling 28.1 percent year-over-year in November, 2019, according to Realtor.com. The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale region also experienced a significant drop in November of this year with its active listing count declining 24.1 percent year-over-year.

-- Realtor.com also recently reported that it expects that the U.S. housing market will continue to slow in 2020 as inventory reaches historic lows and economic uncertainty prompts consumers to pull back on their spending. In San Diego, single-family home sales are expected to drop 3.2 percent in 2020, while prices remain nearly unchanged. Realtor.com also said prices will drop in more than 25 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, including San Francisco, Las Vegas and Miami. Kansas City homes will experience the biggest drop at 4.0 percent.

 -- The UCLA Anderson School forecast for 2020 says that California’s economic growth will slow next year, but it is likely to outshine that of the nation overall as Golden State employers boost payrolls. National economic growth is slowing, but not as quickly as previously anticipated, leading to a slightly more positive outlook for California.

-- CBRE Group, in its 2020 Real Estate Market Outlook Report, says the U.S. economy will continue its lengthy expansion in 2020, supporting multiple asset classes. CBRE said while growth will be tempered due to next year’s election, weakness in manufacturing and an uncertain trade picture, the fundamentals of the commercial real estate market remain solid.

-- Fifty-five percent of homebuyers make some type of financial sacrifice in order to purchase their house, according to the Zillow Group’s 2019 Consumer Housing Trends report. San Diego is one of six metropolitan areas where the mortgage on a median-valued home costs more than 30 percent of the median household income.

-- The typical American homeowner has spent 13 years in their home, up from eight years in 2010, and the median tenure was 14.2 years in San Diego County, according to a Redfin report. The report found the median home tenure for a family in San Diego County was 10.7 years in 2010. Families staying put for longer has resulted in a 46.2 percent drop in homes for sale in the county from 2010 to 2019.

-- The unemployment rate in San Diego County was 2.8 percent in October, up from a revised 2.7 percent in September and below the year-ago estimate of 3.2 percent, the state Employment Development Department reported. This compares to the unadjusted unemployment rate of 3.7 percent for California and 3.3 percent for the nation during the same period.

-- The November national jobs report was exceptional. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 266,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate dipped again. It rests at a solid 3.5 percent, a 50-year low. The jobs creation total beat expectations. Analysts had forecast roughly 180,000 new jobs for the month.

Congratulations to the PSAR Charity Committee.

At a recent PSAR Rally & Ride pitch session, in addition to hearing information about available properties, attendees recognized the outstanding efforts in 2019 by members of the PSAR Charity Committee.

Four local nonprofits were presented with checks from proceeds resulting from two events organized this past year by the Charity Committee.

Three of the nonprofits benefited from proceeds generated by the 2019 PSAR REALTOR® Games, held Friday, June 21. The nonprofits included South Bay Community Services, Unity 4 Orphans and Meals on Wheels San Diego County. Each received $3,500, for a grand total of $10,500, which exceeded the amount raised last year.

The fourth nonprofit, San Yisdro Health Center, was presented with a check for $3,000. These proceeds were generated by, the 2019 PSAR Zombie 5k Run-Walk, held Saturday, Oct. 12.

“PSAR is very proud to support these nonprofits and the extraordinary service they provide to our local communities,” said Laurie MacDonald, 2020 Charity Committee chair. “REALTORS® care greatly about supporting our local communities. We are active volunteers who play an important role in improving neighborhoods to the benefit of homeowners who want to share in the American dream and have a better place to live, work and raise their families.”

PSAR’s third annual PSAR REALTOR® Games, held at Scobee Park, located at 2390 Boswell Road in Chula Vista’s EastLake community, drew more than 200 participants.

The REALTOR® Games featured teams competing in mental and physical challenges. The competitions included agility activities, such as a sack race, free-throw contest, balloon catch and cornhole, plus mental challenges, including a spelling bee, board puzzle and “REALTOR® Feud,” a game resembling TV’s “Family Feud.” Another competition cwas “Jenga,” a game of skill featuring players taking turns removing one wooden block at a time from a tower constructed of several dozen blocks.

Members of PSAR’s Charity Committee who organized this year’s REALTOR® Games were Robert Cromer, Laurie MacDonald, Angie West and Rhonda Beathard.

The 2019 PSAR Zombie 5k Run-Walk, held at Rohr Park, located at 4548 Sweetwater Road, Bonita, drew an enthusiastic crowd. Participants dressed in their best zombie attire, including Halloween costumes. A contest was held for best-dressed pet and child. Additional activities included face painting, a jumpy inflatable, trick-or-treat booths and a raffle with prizes. Food was also provided. The event was a lot of fun and organizers received rave reviews from participants.

This year’s organizers of the PSAR Zombie 5k were Robert Cromer, Laurie McDowell, Rhonda Beathard and Juliet Montoya. The 2019 Zombie 5K was held in partnership with John and Susan Carroll as a fundraiser to benefit cancer screenings at the San Ysidro Health Center.

The PSAR Charity Committee is a wonderful group of caring PSAR members who are willing to share PSAR resources and talent with the community through outreach and service. The committee goal is to provide the support necessary to make a positive charitable impact in the communities served by PSAR members. The volunteers serving on the PSAR Charity Committee evaluate and review requests from nonprofits in the communities and they select charitable causes that will benefit from committee support.

Steven Thomas, publisher of “Reports on Housing,” a real estate industry trends publication, will present a 2020 Housing Market Forecast from 10 a.m. to noon, Tuesday, Dec. 3, at the PSAR East County Service Center, located at 1150 Broadway, El Cajon.  PSAR members and real estate professionals from all other associations in San Diego County are invited to attend. Admission is a $5 donation to the California Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Fund.

Since 2004, Thomas has been publishing “Reports on Housing,” a monthly report for real estate professionals. The report tracks regional demand, inventory, distressed homes and market data. It also shares what buyers, sellers and real estate professionals are experiencing in the trenches.

Thomas is a California real estate broker with decades of experience. He has a degree in Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences from the University of California San Diego. He has been quoted in news stories published by the Orange County Register, Los Angeles Times, San Diego Union-Tribune, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, USA Today, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS and NBC television, Cox Cable Television, KNX 1070,-AM News Radio, KFI AM-640 Radio, blogs and Internet news sites. 

On Dec. 3 in El Cajon, Thomas will discuss values, interest rates and answer questions such as, "Have values peaked?", "Why does the market feel so different?", "Is housing a bubble about to pop?" and "When will buyers have the upper hand again?"

Among his concerns about 2020 are, the U.S. trade war escalation with China and other countries, the international economic slowdown contributed by monetary policies, Brexit, unrealistic sellers, uncertainty over the economy and interest rates, D.C. politics and the 2020 elections.

Thomas explained that if the U.K. is no longer a member of the EU, implications could include an elimination of Britain’s tariff-free trade status with the other EU members.  That means tariffs would probably raise the cost of exports. However, some of that pain would be offset by a weaker pound. Higher tariffs might also increase prices of imports by the U.K.

Also, Thomas said that an escalated trade war between the U.S. and China could hurt both countries. The most important aspect of the long-term economic competition with China isn’t soybeans or natural gas, rather it’s technology. For decades, China has been engaged in a systematic, state-sponsored effort to steal U.S. technology. Beijing has relied heavily on stolen trade secrets and intellectual property to build its own manufacturing and technology base.

The U.S. began slapping tariffs on imports of Chinese goods a year ago, accusing Beijing of using predatory means to give Chinese companies an edge in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and electric vehicles. Those tactics include hacking into U.S. companies’ computers to steal trade secrets, forcing foreign companies to hand over sensitive technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market and unfairly subsidizing Chinese tech firms.

Meanwhile, closer to home, Thomas is predicting an increase in the number of unrealistic, overpriced homes for sale in 2020. “If an area is currently experiencing a strong seller’s market and listings are not selling, then it could mean that agents allowed the sellers to overprice their property without scheduling regular price reductions,” he said. “On the other hand, the good news about an appreciating market is that if you wait long enough, the prices may eventually catch up with the listing.”

Thomas is expecting sales of distressed properties to remain flat next year. “It’s not easy to price property in a declining market,” he said. “Sometimes, comparable sales data is not entirely reliable because, by the time the property is appraised, prices may have declined even further.”

Throughout Southern California, Thomas said that about a quarter of all listings expired in the first nine months of 2019, compared to about 19 percent in 2018 and 18 percent in 2017.

Thomas said he is expecting a slight rise in inventory and sales prices to appreciate between 2 and 5 percent in 2020, with most of the increases realized during the first half of the year.

He said available inventory of higher-priced, move-up homes will improve slightly, aided by a growing number of move-up sellers. Sales of higher-priced luxury homes will remain muted in 2020, with a slight thaw expected in the spring followed by sluggish activity beginning mid-summer and extending through the end of the year.

Thomas’ other predictions for the 2020 housing marketinclude:
-- Many buyers will continue to be cautious fence-sitters.
-- Monthly interest rates on typical 30-year loans will average 3.75 percent (Thomas said a low mortgage rate environment is a gift to the real estate industry).

Thomas sells a “Reports on Housing” monthly subscription for $15 per month or $150 per year. The regional reports feature a local real estate snapshot. One month free is available upon sign-up. Thomas can be followed on YouTube at www.Youtube.com/ReportsOnHousing, and Facebook at @reportsOnHousing. For more information, visit www.reportsonhousing.com.

2020 Market ForECast

Tuesday | December 3rd, 2019
10:00 AM - 12:00 PM

PSAR | EAST COUNT
1150 Broadway, El Cajon, CA 92021

All PSAR members can be proud in knowing that PSAR is providing important leadership in its efforts to build friendships, education, professionalism, networking and mutual business cooperation between real estate professionals internationally, in Mexico and the United States. The members of PSAR’s Global Real Estate Council (GREC) have been very supportive in the building of cross-border alliances.

So, it is with great honor to inform you that PSAR was recently invited to attend and speak at the national conference presented by AMPI (Asociacion Mexicana de Profesionales Inmobiliarios). AMPI, the Association of Mexican Real Estate Professionals, is Mexico’s counterpart to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

AMPI was formed in 1956 to establish laws and codes of ethics and conduct in order  to create a reliable, trustworthy and efficient real estate environment in Mexico.  Mexico’s largest real estate association, AMPI has bi-national agreements of cooperation with NAR and the California Association of REALTORS®, as well as with PSAR.

To be invited to be a presenter at the AMPI national conference in October was a real honor. With over 1,200 associations in NAR, PSAR received the honor to join representatives from other international associations from such countries as El Salvador, Brazil, Canada, Panama and many others. The AMPI conference was held in San Luis Potosi, south of Mexico City.

Also attending the AMPI conference were representatives from Consejo Estatal de Profesionales Inmobiliarios de Baja California, (CEPIBC), a statewide real estate trade group located in the Mexican state of Baja California.

(You may recall that in 2018, PSAR signed a Bi-Regional Cooperation Agreement with CEPIBC. The agreement was signed by Jan Farley, PSAR president, and Gustavo Chacon Aubanel, Presidente de Consejo Estatal de Profesionales Inmobiliarios de Baja California. The agreement called for the scheduling of classes covering the financial, legal and cultural differences in real estate transactions between Mexico and the United States.  It also fostered, respect and adherence to each association’s Code of Ethics for business interaction. Founded in 1984, CEPIBC comprises the 10 local real estate trade associations that operate in five Baja California cities, including Tijuana, Ensenada, Rosarito, Tecate and Mexicali. CEPIBC promotes standards of professionalism, licensing and increased business relationships with U.S. real estate professionals, primarily in California and Arizona.)

The PSAR delegation attending the AMPI conference was included Hector Zamaro, PSAR GREC chair, Nick Iniguez, GREC member and Catalina Spuehler, GREC member.

At the AMPI conference, Gabriela Isabel Cerezo Morales, CEPIBC 2019 President and AMPI National Treasurer, introduced us to Pablo Vasquez, AMPI 2019 National President, and Roberto Barrios, AMPI 2020 National President-Elect, as well as other dignitaries and international speakers. Both Gabriela Cerezo Morales and Miguel Urriza from CEPIBC attended the recent PSAR Installation Dinner held at Viejas Casino & Resort.

Our presentations at the AMPI conference were titled: “Forming International Alliances,” with Hector Zamaro as speaker and “New MLS in Mexico,” with Nick Iniguez as speaker.

Also at the AMPI conference, there was an historic announcement introducing the first formal MLS System operating in Mexico. Now, properties can be listed in Mexico and viewed internationally. Thanks to Art Carter, CEO CRMLS, and Ross E. Buck, President of Terminus MLS (Mexico’s MLS). Terminus recently signed their first contract with the Baja California CEPIBC state chapter.

PSAR’s trade mission to the AMPI conference concluded with excellent coverage and networking with bilateral partners and inviting them to participate in a mutual referral business with our PSAR membership. We anticipate further growth and participation with our colleagues in Mexico and other countries.

An invitation has been extended to all our membership and leadership to attend the “AMPI International Summit 2020” in March 2020. It will be an excellent gesture of cooperation, as wll as a potentially profitable one, to send a delegation of PSAR representatives to participate in this Summit.  Many countries will  have representatives attending, with whom alliances could be formed.

We appreciate all the hard work by Gabriela Isabel Cerezo Morales and her CEPIBC Board for all their support during 2019. They have been instrumental in furthering bilateral relationships to the benefit of PSAR members.

I want to encourage any PSAR member who may be interested in cross-border opportunities and who wants to network with other international real estate practitioners to get involved with GREC. PSAR’s GREC is dedicated to assist the needs of PSAR members who desire to expand their international outreach. GREC will help you find mentors who can facilitate  connections with individuals internationally. GREC offers PSAR members the opportunity to learn and expand their real estate market opportunities internationally. The vision of the Council is to provide and facilitate educational avenues that enable PSAR members to expand their practice and organize global-themed events.

Formed in 2013, PSAR’s GREC has hosted several educational events in recent years focused on helping PSAR international capital investment clients make informed transaction decisions with effective counsel across multiple jurisdictions. The training sessions have focused on cultural customs and diversity, as well as panel discussions and forums with international partners.

The Council also encourages PSAR members to earn the Certified International Property Specialist (CIPS) certification, a professional designation offered by the National Association of REALTORS® which results in expanded knowledge, a worldwide network and tools helpful in serving international clients.

More than 400 PSAR REALTORS®, affiliates, friends and family members converged on the Viejas Casino & Resort in Alpine to enjoy a memorable PSAR Officers Installation Dinner on Nov. 2.

The Installation event celebrated the success of the REALTOR® community with leaders who are committed to serving the industry. The program featured the swearing in of the 2020 PSAR Board of Directors and Robert Cromer as 2020 PSAR President by U.S. Representative Juan Vargas.

Also recognized at the installation were recipients of special awards. These awards targeted three geographical areas in San Diego PSAR, including South, East and Central San Diego County. Recipients included:

-- Merrie Espina, Realtor of the Year, South
-- Julie Lupo, Realtor of the Year, East
-- Shonee Henry, Realtor of the Year, Central

-- Hector Zamaro, Broker of the Year, South
-- Jan Farley, Broker of the Year, East
-- Jason Lopez, Broker of the Year, Central

-- Rhonda Beathard, Affiliate of the Year, South
-- Raymundo Gill, Affiliate of the Year, East
-- Megan Oliva, Affiliate of the Year, Central

             ~ Downloadable Pictures  ~                      

In his message to the members, Cromer stated, “I am really excited about the upcoming year and having the opportunity to build on the success of our Board of Directors, the committees, the staff, and our current and past presidents. This truly could be a break-out year for PSAR. Although we have had almost double-digit growth in membership each of the last two years, there are going to be a lot of changes in the marketplace. We hope San Diego County REALTORS® will find comfort in our culture, our education and our support for REALTORS® and homeownership. We empower REALTORS® to be the best they can be!”

Joining Robert on the PSAR board of directors for the 2020 calendar year beginning Jan. 1, 2020, will be Ditas Yamane as president-elect, Sam Calvano as secretary-treasurer and Robert Calloway as immediate past president. Other REALTOR® members also serving on the 2020 board will include: Mike Anderson, Yvonne Cromer, Carey Guthrie, Sean Hillier, Robert Kilbourne, Jason Lopez, Laurie MacDonald, Peter Mendiola, Norma Scantlin and Mike White. Also serving on the board will be Tony Santiago as an affiliate director.

PSAR is grateful to Shonee Henry, Dennis Ryan and Jan Farley, three PSAR board members whose terms will end December 31, 2019. Farley served as 2018 PSAR President.

In his farewell comments, Robert Calloway said, “Thank you for a wonderful year as PSAR’s 2019 President. PSAR was able to accomplish so many things this year. This was the year of service and our members definitely stepped up and served our Association by committing themselves to our mission of empowering our members. I encourage those members who are not serving on a committee to please take some time and visit a committee where you fit. Finally, I would like to thank the 2019 Officers and Directors for your selfless dedication and service to our Association, and a special thanks to the committee chairs for leading your committees and assisting with following the Association’s strategic plan. I want to welcome the 2020 Leadership Team and Directors and wish you well on your journey. Fair Winds and Following Seas!”

In his message to the members, PSAR CEO Richard D’Ascoli stated: “Even as these critics question the viability of REALTORS® and their associations, PSAR continues to flex its muscles and grow even stronger. We are committed to helping REALTORS® succeed. REALTORS® are thriving because our association is the glue that holds the industry together. Together, with our MLS and our State and National Associations, we provide a platform to support our members’ efforts to build homeownership opportunities.”

Special speakers at the Installation Dinner included Robert and Yvonne Cromer’s two daughters, Hannah and Haley, who spoke to the audience in Spanish. Haley graduated from the University of California Davis with a degree in Spanish. She is now working on her Masters at Grand Canyon University. Hannah is a freshman at Creighton University. Both are bilingual.

Also speaking was Jeny Parra, a Cromer family friend. Jeny’s parents and Yvonne’s parents were friends back before both girls were born. Jeny’s late husband Victor was a close friend of Robert. In 2018, Victor passed away from heat stroke during a hike in the Blue Sky Ranch area of Lakeside. He was 47. Victor worked for the San Diego Unified School District as a facilities and equipment supervisor. He was also the Grand Knight of the Knights of Columbus fraternal council at Chula Vista’s St. Rose of Lima Catholic Church. A $1,000 scholarship in Victor’s name was announced at the Installation Dinner.

San Diego County’s housing market saw lower home sales prices and fewer sales in September, 2019, according to a recent report from California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in September, 2019 was $636,750, making it a month-over-month drop of 2 percent from the $650,000 figure in August, 2019, and a minor slide of 0.5 percent in a year-over-year comparison to $640,000 posted in September, 2018.

Meanwhile, home sales in San Diego decreased 10.8 percent in September, 2019, compared to August, 2019, but rose 16.3 percent in a year-over-year comparison to September, 2018.

On a statewide basis in September, amid the most favorable mortgage rates in nearly three years, California’s housing market recorded a third consecutive year-over-year sales increase as month-over-month sales remained essentially flat.

September’s statewide sales total of 404,030 was down 0.5 percent from the 406,100 level in August and up 5.8 percent from home sales in September, 2018 from a revised 382,040. The year-over-year sales increase was the largest in two-and-a-half years. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 3.1 percent in September.

September’s statewide median home price was $605,680, down 1.9 percent from the August figure of $617,410 and up 4.7 percent from September, 2018’s figure of $578,420. It marked the sixth straight month the median price remained above $600,000. The annual price gain was the largest in nearly a year.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 404,030 units in September, according to information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“The housing market has been performing better so far in the second half of 2019, with both sales and prices up as mortgage rates remain near their three-year lows,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “Additionally, pending sales have been on an upward trend with a near-10 percent increase over a year ago, making it the largest gain in three years. The solid improvement in pending sales suggests that the market may see more sales gains in the coming months.”“Despite having the largest annual gain in the last 30 months, sales remained just slightly above the 400,000 benchmark and have not shown meaningful growth in the last few years,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “As such, while low mortgage rates have motivated buyers to enter the market in the short term, we should be mindful that economic uncertainties, supply constraints and low housing affordability could continue to hold demand back in the long run.” 

Even with near record low mortgage rates, consumers still see challenges in the current housing market conditions. According to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in October, 22 percent of respondents believe that it is a good time to buy now, slightly better than last year (21 percent), when interest rates were 100 basis points higher. More than half (52 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, an improvement from the prior month (46 percent) but below last year's 56 percent.

Other key points from the September, 2019 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, non-seasonally adjusted sales rose on an annual basis in all major regions, with Los Angeles County recording the largest yearly gain at 9.2 percent.

-- In the Southern California region, median home prices grew in every county except San Diego and Ventura. Riverside had the largest annual price gain of 5.8 percent in the region, followed by San Bernardino (5.0 percent), Los Angeles (4.5 percent), and Orange (0.6 percent). 

-- After 15 straight months of year-over-year increases, the number of active listings fell for the third straight month, dropping 11.8 percent from year ago. The decline was the largest since December, 2017.

-- The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 3.5 months in September, up from 3.2 in August and down from 4.2 months in September 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. -- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home edged up to 24 days in September, 2019, compared with 23 days in August, 2019, 21 days in July, 2019 and 23 days in September, 2018.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market stood at 18 days in September, 2019, compared with 17 days in August, 2019, 15 days in July, 2019, 13 days in June, 2019, 14 days in May, 2019, 17 days in April, 2019, 19 days in March 2019, 22 days in February, 2019 and 19 days in September, 2018.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.5 percent in September, 2019, unchanged from September, 2018. It was 98.7 percent in August, 2019 and 99.0 percent in July, 2019. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.61 percent in September, down from 4.63 percent in September, 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.38 percent, compared to 3.94 percent in September, 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- According to real estate tracker Core Logic, San Diego County home sales jumped 14.7 percent in September from the same time last year, which analysts largely attribute to a drop in mortgage rates. In the same month, home prices dipped slightly, said Core Logic. The median home price was $570,000 in September, down from $575,000 at the same time last year. It marks the second consecutive month of declining prices.

-- The latest S&P Case-Shiller report shows home prices were up 2.3 percent annually in the San Diego metropolitan area as of August. The gain was part of a continued reversal of fortunes for San Diego since mortgage interest rates started to drop. For months, the metro area was at the bottom of the 20-city index.

-- According to Redfin, 23.2 percent of San Diego property searches in the third quarter were by residents who live outside the area. It is a slightly smaller percentage than the 24.7 percent figure recorded in the third quarter of last year. San Diego was ranked as the ninth strongest inflow market overall. People from Los Angeles were most interested in relocating to San Diego. The top out of state origin for San Diego zip code searches came from Seattle.

-- Also according to Redfin, home bidding wars have fallen off a cliff from a year ago, both in San Diego County and the nation as a whole. In San Diego, just 16 percent of homebuying transactions faced competition in September, a drop of more than 24 percent from September, 2018. The rate experienced a 3.7 percent month-over-month drop. Nationally, just 11 percent of offers written faced a bidding war in September, down from 41 percent a year earlier.

-- San Diego homeowners are the second-most leveraged in the nation, trailing only Los Angeles, according to a new LendingTree report. San Diego has a leverage ratio of 3.64, a median mortgage amount of $455,000, and a median borrower income of $125,000. L.A. homeowners were the only ones more leveraged with a leverage ratio of 3.91, a median mortgage amount of $485,000, and a median borrower income of $124,000.

-- With increasing national defense spending and a growing number of homeported warships, the military now accounts for a full one-fifth of San Diego’s economy and its impact is growing.

That was the conclusion of a recent economic report from the San Diego Military Advisory Council, which has tracked the military’s impact on the community since 2008. The report identified $28.1 billion in direct spending that supports 109,000 active duty personnel, 26,000 civilians and 7,000 reserves. The ripple effect on the local economy creates over 210,000 more jobs and a total impact of $51 billion.

-- A new report from CBRE Group ranks San Diego among the top 10 fastest-growing high-tech job markets in the U.S. The commercial real estate services firm’s annual Tech-30 report, which measures the industry's impact on office rents in the 30 leading technology markets in the U.S. and Canada, found that the local tech-job market has experienced a 19.7 percent growth rate in the last two years. The region also saw nearly 6,000 new high-tech jobs in 2017 and 2018, which accounted for more than three-quarters of all new office jobs. According to the report, San Diego now has more than 35,000 high-tech software and services jobs.

-- San Diego County’s jobless rate in September reached one of its lowest points in 20 years. San Diego County’s unemployment rate for September was 2.7 percent, down from 3.4 percent in August and below the 3.1 percent jobless figure from a year ago, according to the state Employment Development Dept. San Diego County added 30,600 jobs in a year, up from the 27,000 at the same time last year. The jobless rate for September was 3.5 percent for California and 3.3 percent for the nation.

-- The U.S. added more jobs than expected in October despite a 40-day General Motors strike and trade-war tensions. A stronger-than-expected jobs report for October pushed stocks higher this past Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 128,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, compared to estimates of 85,000. The healthy employment gains reassured investors amid uncertainty around the trade war between the US and China and talk of a looming economic slowdown.