Low mortgage interest rates will support California’s housing market next year but economic uncertainty and affordability issues will mute sales growth, according to a recently released 2020 housing market forecast from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

In 2020, the state’s housing market will see a small uptick in existing single-family home sales of 0.8 percent next year to reach 393,500 units, up from the projected 2019 sales figure of 390,200. The 2019 figure is 3.1 percent lower compared to the pace of 402,800 homes sold in 2018.

In addition, the statewide median home price is forecast to increase 2.5 percent to $607,900 in 2020, following a projected 4.1 percent increase from last year to $593,200 in 2019.

“With interest rates expected to remain near three-year lows, buyers will have more purchasing power than in years past, but they may be reluctant to get off the sidelines because of economic and market uncertainties,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “Additionally, an affordability crunch will cut into demand in some regions. These factors together will subdue sales growth next year.”

“California’s housing market will be challenged by changing migration patterns as buyers search for more affordable housing markets, particularly first-time buyers, who are the hardest hit, moving out of state,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “With California’s job and population growth rates tapering, the state’s affordability crisis is having a negative impact on the state economically as we lose the workers we need most such as service, construction workers, and teachers.”

A 2019 C.A.R. study revealed that 30 percent of sellers who planned on repurchasing said that they will buy their next home a state other than California, which is the highest percentage level since 2005. Older generations were more likely to buy outside of California as well as 37 percent of baby boomers and silent generation.  But only 30 percent of millennial sellers planned to do the same. 

Additional recent 2020 housing market forecasts, according to news reports, include the following:

-- Home prices in San Diego will continue to rise in most neighborhoods but at a far slower rate than previously years, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting in La Jolla. By year’s end, housing price will have dropped by 1 percent countywide, the firm said.

-- Redfin said the next recession, whenever it happens, is unlikely to have a large negative impact on the real estate market. However, Redfin said San Diego County has the fourth highest risk in the nation for a residential downturn in the event of a recession. San Diego has a 68.2 percent risk of a housing downturn if, or when, a recession happens. The three other metropolitan areas with higher risks include Riverside (72.8 percent probability of a housing downturn), followed by Phoenix (69.8 percent) and Miami (69.5 percent). Rochester, N.Y., Buffalo, NY, and Hartford, Conn. have the lowest risk of a housing downturn. Redfin measured a wide range of factors, including average home loan-to-value ratios, home price volatility, home price-to-income ratio, and the share of homeowners older than 65.

-- Economic expansion, already the longest on record, is expected to continue in 2020. The U.S. gross domestic product will grow by 1.6 percent in 2020, after a projected gain of 2.2 percent in 2019, according to C.A.R.

-- The state’s unemployment rate will tick up to 4.5 percent in 2020 from 2019’s 4.3 percent projected figure. A tight labor market will continue to make it hard to find skilled workers.

-- The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will dip to 3.7 percent in 2020, down from 3.9 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in 2018 and will remain low by historical standards, said C.A.R.

-- The UCLA Anderson Forecast is predicting an economic slowdown nationwide in the second half of 2020, though not to recession levels. The report said the national economy will slow to 0.4 percent growth in the second half of 2020 due to trade tensions lowering corporate investments, but it should rebound to about 2.1 percent growth in 2021. San Diego and California will fare better than the rest of the nation because of job creation and diversity in the local economy.

-- CalMatters, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture, recently reported that California is home to roughly a quarter of the nation’s immigrants, 11 million, which is more than the entire population of Georgia. Half of the state’s immigrants were born in Latin America and four out of 10 are from Asia. The leading countries of origin: Mexico (4.1 million), China (969,000), the Philippines (857,000), Vietnam (524,000) and India (507,000). Among recent immigrants, Asia has surpassed Latin America. The future California will be a minority-majority state with a rising population of multi-racial people who are two races or more.

San Diego County’s housing market in August 2019 saw a 2.2 percent decrease in sales in a month-to-month comparison with July 2019, but a 2.3 percent increase in sales in a year-over-year comparison with August 2018, according to a recent report from California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Meanwhile, the median price of $650,000 for an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in August 2019 was the same amount for both July 2019 and July 2018. The median price a year ago in August 2018 was slightly higher at $660,000.

On a statewide basis in August mortgage interest rates at near-three-year lows contributed to a small year-over-year sales increase while the median home price reached a new high.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 406,100 units in August, according to information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Statewide home sales in August of 406,100 were down 1.3 percent from the 411,630 level in July 2019 and up 1.6 percent from the 399,600 home sales in August 2018. While cumulative sales through the first eight months of the year were down from last year, the pace of decline has improved significantly at -4.1 percent since the -12.5 percent recorded in January.

After a pullback in July, the statewide median price rose in August compared to the previous month and year. The median price in August was $617,410, up 1.5 percent from July and up 3.6 percent from $595,920 in August 2018, marking the fifth straight month that the median price remained above $600,000. The annual sales gain was the highest in the last 10 months.“Housing demand has exhibited signs of improvement in recent months as lower rates continued to reduce the cost of borrowing for home buyers,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “However, buyers remain cautious, and many are reluctant to jump in because of the economic and market uncertainty that continue to linger, and that is keeping growth subdued despite significantly lower rates.” 

 “Low interest rates, which helped to reduce monthly mortgage payments, have provided much-needed support to improve housing affordability and elevate home sales over the past few months,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “While lower rates have no doubt boosted buyers’ purchasing power, they have also been a contributing factor to higher home prices this year.”

Other key points from the August 2019 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, non-seasonally adjusted sales fell on both a monthly and an annual basis from a year ago in all major regions.

-- At the regional level, median home prices in Southern California, the Central Valley and Central Coast regions continued to inch up, while prices in the Bay Area declined slightly from a year ago. In Southern California, median home prices grew in every county except Orange County and San Diego, while six of nine Bay Area counties experienced year-over-year price growth.

-- After 15 straight months of year-over-year increases, active listing fell 8.9 percent from year ago, marking the first back-to-back decline since March 2018 and the largest since December 2017.

-- The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 3.2 months in August, unchanged from July and down from 3.3 months in August 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home increased to 23 days in August 2019, compared with 21 days in July 2019 and August 2018 and 18 days in July 2018.

-- In San Diego County, it took over two weeks to sell an existing single-family home in August 2019. The median number of days a home remained unsold on the market stood at 17 days in August 2019, compared with 15 days in July 2019, 13 days in June 2019, 14 days in May 2019, 17 days in April 2019, 19 days in March 2019, 22 days in February 2019 and 18 days in August 2018.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.7 percent in August 2019, compared to 99.0 percent in August 2018. It was 99.0 percent in July 2019 and 99.6 percent in July 2018. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.62 percent in August, down from 4.55 percent in August 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.36 percent, compared to 3.47 percent in August 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- According to real estate tracker Core Logic, San Diego County’s median home price in August was down annually for the first time in seven years, albeit a small reduction. The median price of $584,000 was down 0.1 percent from the same time last year at $584,500. The last time prices were down year-over-year was March 2012.

-- The latest S&P Case-Shiller report shows home price increases continued to slow across much of the nation. The price index reported a 3.2 percent annual gain in July, but the index remained the same from June. The index's 20-city composite posted a 2.0 percent year-over-year gain, which matched San Diego's level.

The 10-city composite's annual increase came in at 1.6 percent in July, down from 1.9 percent the previous month.

-- According to Redfin, people who purchased homes in 2012 have earned a total of $203 billion in home equity nationally. San Diego, despite being outpaced by numerous metros, has seen an exponential growth in home value and equity, as well. San Diego County has experienced a total of $6.14 billion in home equity value since 2012, said Redfin. The median home equity growth here amounted to a 277 percent increase, or $283,000, during the seven-year period. The median home value percent growth since 2012 was 60 percent, and the actual median home value dollar growth in San Diego during the period was $232,000.

-- In rental housing news, San Diego's apartment rents, which had been on an upward trajectory for many years, actually dipped somewhat in September, according to a report from Zumper. The rent for a one-bedroom unit in San Diego experienced a 2.2 percent year-over-year decline in September to about $1,800 a month. The region's rent for a two-bedroom unit declined about 4 percent year-over-year to $2,400 a month in September. Zumper said San Diego is the 9th most expensive city in the U.S. for apartment rentals. Meanwhile, CoStar reports the monthly average rent in the third quarter was $1,860 countywide, and rents are rising most rapidly in the East County.

-- According to the Bloomberg Economic Index, U.S. economic data is beating economists’ expectations, offering a rebuttal to recession fears fueled by the trade war and a manufacturing slump. Bloomberg’s index recently reached an 11-month high based on several indicators, including existing home sales and jobless claims.

-- CNBC reports that more than two-thirds of chief financial officers in North America expect President Trump will be reelected in 2020. About 65 percent of the CFOs surveyed said the economy will not experience a recession in 2020. And a majority of them said current interest rate levels are “appropriate.”

San Diego County’s housing market in July 2019 saw an 8.9 percent increase in sales from the previous month, and a 3.4 percent sales increase compared to July 2018, according to the latest housing market report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

In addition, the median price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County of $650,000 in July 2019 was 2.3 percent lower from the previous month of $665,000 in June 2019. The local median price of $650,000 in July 2019 was the same as July 2018.

The lowest interest rates in nearly three years helped jump-start California’s housing market to post the first year-over-year sales gain and the highest sales level in 15 months.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 411,630 units in July, according to information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

July’s sales figure was up 5.6 percent from the 389,730 level in June 2019 and up 1.1 percent from home sales in July 2018 of 407,030.

“Mortgage rates that dipped to the lowest level in nearly three years have helped reduce monthly mortgage payments for the past five consecutive months, giving buyers more purchasing power,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “The boost in demand gave the housing market its first yearly gain since April 2018.”

After setting record prices for the past three months in a row, the statewide median price of $607,990 in July 2019 pulled back by 0.4 percent from June 2019’s $610,720 figure, but it still registered higher by 2.8 percent than the $591,230 price set for July 2018.

It was the fourth straight month that the median price remained above $600,000.

“While it's encouraging that home sales crept higher in July, the market will continue to be challenged by an overarching affordability issue, especially in high cost areas such as the Bay Area, which requires a minimum annual income well into the six figures to purchase a home,” said C.A.R. Senior VP and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

Other key points from the July 2019 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, non-seasonally adjusted sales increased from a year ago in all major regions, except San Francisco, which experienced a 0.6 percent decline. The Los Angeles Metro region posted a 4.0 percent increase, and sales in the Inland Empire improved by 2.4 percent.-- Non-seasonally adjusted sales rose in every county in Southern California, with Orange County rising the most at 6.7 percent, followed by San Bernardino (5.0 percent), Los Angeles County (4.7 percent), San Diego (3.4 percent), Ventura (2.1 percent) and Riverside (0.8 percent).

-- Median home prices at the regional level continued to inch up in Southern California and the Central Valley regions, while the Central Coast and Bay Area declined slightly from a year ago. In the Southern California region, median home prices grew in every county, while most Bay Area region counties continued to experience price softening on a year-over-year basis.

-- Active listings, which had been increasing year-over-year for the past 15 months, fell 2.1 percent from a year ago.

-- The decrease in active listings and an increase in home sales contributed to a year-over-year decline in unsold inventory for the first time in 15 months. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, stood at 3.2 months in July, down from 3.4 months in June and down from 3.3 months in July 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a single-family home increased to 21 days in July 2019, compared to 19 days in June 2019 and 18 days in July 2018.

-- In San Diego County, it took about two weeks to sell an existing single-family home in July 2019. The median number of days a home remained unsold on the market stood at 15 days in July, compared with 13 days in June, 14 days in May, 17 days in April, 19 days in March, 22 days in February and 14 days in July 2018.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 99.0 percent in July 2019 compared to 99.6 percent in July 2018. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.77 percent in July, down from 4.53 percent in July 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.47 percent, compared to 3.84 percent in July 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- According to CoreLogic, home sales in July rose 10.1 percent from a year ago, as the median home price stayed flat. The $580,000 median home price in July, showing no gain from the year before, was down from the all-time high of $590,000 the previous month.

-- According to the most recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report, the rate of home price increases is continuing to slow in San Diego and across the nation in June. The survey found that in 20 major cities it tracked across the U.S., there was a year-over-year price gain of 2.1 percent. For San Diego County, the year-over-year increase was just 1.3 percent in June, down from 6.9 percent at the same time last year. It was the fifth monthly increase in a row for San Diego.

-- According to Zillow, home value growth continued to slow in July, indicated a slowdown. The rate of U.S. home value appreciation decreased for the seventh straight month in July. The typical U.S. home was worth $229,000 in July, an increase of 5.2 percent from a year ago but the smallest annual appreciation since October 2015. The median price of a single-family home in San Diego County was $591,500 in July, Zillow said. San Diego County’s year-over-year home price climbed by just 1.1 percent in July, compared to a 6.1 percent year-over-year increase in July 2018.

-- According to Redfin, a typical family in San Diego would need to earn 156 percent of the median household income in order to afford the $650,000 median-priced, single-family home. The Redfin survey is based on the assumption that a home is only affordable if the would-be buyer pays no more than 30 percent of his/her household income on the purchase.

-- San Diego ranked as the 10th-most coveted moving destination in the second quarter, according to a report from Redfin. There were 3,013 more Redfin users looking to move here than leave, marking a year-over-year increase of 465 users, the company reported. The largest percentage of San Diego searches came from residents of Los Angeles. The top out-of-state origin for San Diego searches came from Seattle.

-- San Diego County had the nation's fifth most expensive single-family housing market in the second quarter, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). NAR found four housing markets that were more expensive than San Diego’s. The Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area was the most expensive market at $1.33 million at mid-year, followed by the San Francisco Bay area ($1.05 million), the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine market ($835,000) and Urban Honolulu ($785,500).

-- San Diego was the third most expensive home resale market in the nation during the first half of the year, according to an HSH.com report. The report, covering the top 50 metropolitan areas, incorporated local property tax and homeowner's insurance costs and calculated the income needed to qualify for a median-priced home in each market.

-- More than 20 percent of homes for sale in the San Diego metropolitan area had a price decrease in June. Of the 20 biggest metro areas in the nation, San Diego had the sixth most price reductions, according to Zillow. Chicago had the most reductions at 22 percent. The numbers are down from the end of last year in San Diego metro. In October 2018, 27 percent of home listings had price reductions. Still, recent numbers are a far cry from the start of 2017 when less than  9 percent of listings had a price reduction.

-- San Diego County had the biggest drop in homebuilding in Southern California in the first six months of 2019. According to the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California, 43 percent fewer homes were constructed in the six-month period compared to the same timeframe last year. The slowdown comes at a time when city and state leaders are offering several legislative measures to spur housing.

-- Mortgage problems, including defects, fraudulence and misrepresentation, are declining, according to First American Financial Corp. The top markets with a year-over-year decrease in July included Houston (minus-19.1 percent), Jacksonville, Fla. (minus 17.0 %), Orlando, Fla. (minus 16.5 %), San Diego (minus 16.5 %), and Tampa, Fla. (minus 14.0 %).

-- New, entry-level teachers will need to spend more than half of their salaries on rent in 19 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas this school year, according to Zillow. New educators in San Diego County will need to spend almost their entire salary in order to afford a local apartment. Zillow found that an entry-level teacher in San Diego will be required to spend 97.2 percent of their income to live in an apartment with a median monthly rent of $2,673.

-- The unemployment rate in the San Diego County was 3.6 percent in July, up from a revised 3.3 percent in June 2019, and unchanged compared with the year-ago estimate of 3.6 percent, the state Employment Development Department reported. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 4.4 percent for California and 4.0 percent for the nation during the same period.

-- U.S. employers hired 164,000 workers in July as the labor force hit a record high. Government data indicates that hiring in the U.S. remained at a healthy pace in July despite a cooling economy. The 164,000 non-farm payrolls last month increased the size of the labor force to its largest ever. The labor market has added jobs for a record 106 straight months. On average, the U.S. added a solid 140,000 jobs a month between May and July.

The PSAR family is sad today over the recent passing of former PSAR President Armida Martin Del Campo. Armida served as the PSAR President in 2001.

Armida passed away Aug. 27 at a skilled nursing facility in National City after living with Alzheimer’s disease for the past seven years. She retired about eight years ago after a 30-year career in real estate sales and industry leadership. She maintained her brokers license even after her retirement. She operated her own brokerage, Sunshine Realty on Bonita Road, and ended her career with Coldwell Banker West. She was 76.

She was a long-time PSAR leader and served on many PSAR committees, including Professional Standards, Budget and Finance, Government Affairs, Equal Opportunity and Political Action, among others. She also served as a CAR Director.

 “She was outgoing and a great people-person, a real social butterfly,” said Margarita Martin Del Campo, a daughter. “She was a wonderful wife and a great mother. She was always fun to be around and had a big heart and an open door for everyone. She loved real estate and was always on the go. Her open houses were very popular because she would prepare food for guests to enjoy. Wherever we went, people would recognize her.”

Armida served as the California Association of REALTORS' Key Contact for State Senator Juan Vargas.  She advocated for her industry and encouraged many PSAR members to get involved.  Current PSAR CEO Rich D’Ascoli recalls her support and encouragement when he first joined PSAR as the Government Affairs Director. "Armida made leadership look easy.  She led with grace and poise.  She had a way of making everyone feel accepted and comfortable. She was always the professional in the room."

Victor Ibarra was among countless people in real estate who benefited from Armida’s encouragement. “Armida was an icon in the real estate industry. She was well-loved and respected by her peers throughout the country, including escrow officers, title reps, lenders, everyone. She was always advocating for REALTORS® and homeowners. She took me under her wing when I served on the Association board. We went on trips to various cities to meet with fellow REALTORS®. She introduced me to many movers-and-shakers, all of whom loved and respected her. She knew everybody and everybody knew her.”

Armida was born on Oct. 27, 1942 in Tijuana. She is survived by Enrique, her husband of 52 years, two sons, Henry Martin of Chula Vista and Gerardo Martin Del Campo of Clayton, California, and two daughters, Armida Tinajero and Margarita Martin Del Campo, both of Chula Vista. Enrique retired after a career in dentistry. Henry works in law enforcement and Gerardo is a veterinarian. Armida works in manufacturing retail and Margarita works with the government. Armida also is survived by 10 grandchildren and two great-grandchildren. Services are pending, but are expected to be held in Tijuana in early September.  PSAR will release more information when it becomes available.

Everyone at PSAR extends their sympathies and condolences to the Martin Del Campo family.

The passing of Armida marks the third loss this year of a past PSAR president. Tom Money (1984) passed away in January. Patty Davis (1991) passed away in July.

Salute to Service

By Mike White

I have never been the kind of person who has been content just sitting on the sidelines. Instead, I prefer to get involved. That’s why I decided to participate in a leadership role at PSAR as a board member. And, since this year’s PSAR theme is “Salute to Service,” I want to encourage all of you to also decide to personally participate at a greater level at PSAR.

A higher level of involvement in PSAR has personally meant a ton of benefits for me. PSAR has given me an opportunity to continue my personal and professional growth and career maturity. In the past, I’ve been in several other leadership roles outside of real estate, including as President of Toastmasters Club, PTA and others. But, PSAR has brought me to a whole new higher level.

Involvement in PSAR has meant that I’ve had to “up my game.” I have been pushed to set higher goals for myself. I have learned to be a better listener and make the most out of every situation. I have learned to understand what it means to broaden and expand my horizons, maximize opportunities and stay ahead of the curve.

For example, forming and leading the PSAR Tech Committee as chair has been a great experience. I’ve been able to solidify my public speaking skills as a result of delivering the “Tech Moment” at Rally and Ride pitch sessions. And, it’s been personally gratifying to share what I’ve learned with our members there and at our monthly "Tech Lunch and Learn" workshops.

Also, it’s been a great experience to represent PSAR as a member of several California Association of REALTORS® committees, including Business Tech, MLS, Zipforms and Standard Forms. 

Overall, getting involved at PSAR at a greater level has given me the opportunity to "drive the industry bus", so to speak, rather than just being one of the passengers. You, too, can “drive the bus.” I’m inviting you today to get behind the wheel and buckle-up your seat belt. As a driver, you can make a difference about the speed and direction of the bus as you bring along other PSAR members and help set a destination for success.

Every morning, I need to remind myself that since I’m driving the bus I will do everything I can to make things happen. That’s because attitude, not aptitude, determines altitude. I choose to be optimistic even when it appears the deck is stacked against me. Everybody has the choice in life to be a passenger or a driver. The passengers go along for the ride, leaving decisions and responsibility to somebody else. A passenger does not take personal responsibility for the events in their life. But, to be successful and live a fulfilling life, you need to be the driver.

C’mon, get serious with me: Are you a hammer or a nail? Which one would you rather be? Some people complain about bad luck, but others make their luck.  If it is to be, then it must be up to me. To succeed, you have to try.  Don’t be afraid of failure because the most successful people have failed, but they stuck with it.  

Every successful entrepreneur has always faced challenging odds, but then they have succeeded in spite of them all. Every successful REALTOR® has usually had countless people tell them they were delusional and should give up and “get a real job.” I’ve always felt, as far as my destiny is concerned, that every set-back, when the door has been slammed in my face, has been nothing more than just another bump in the road that is bringing me closer to a “yes.” And, as long as you love what you're doing, you're half-way to your long-term goals.

So, I’m urging you to join me and decide to get more involved at PSAR. Just do something more than you’re doing now. Join a committee or volunteer for an event. Get involved and you will gain new skills that will help you further your goals and pursuits. You will get better at learning more about yourself and how to better succeed. Be that bus driver who takes more control of life and pursues new dreams and goals through the attainment of new skills. The time is now, step up and become a driver.  

Here is the latest in a series of occasional articles on “Best Practices” for PSAR members from 2019 PSAR President Robert Calloway.

By Robert Calloway

      You might have seen news stories that said, in the future, one of the next jobs to be performed by robots instead of humans will be the role of a REALTOR®. These news reports say that artificial intelligence (AI) may one day equip robots to do some of the same jobs as REALTORS®.  For example creating three-dimensional virtual property videos of properties, assisting with office interactions, or communicating various home features in different languages. A 2013 study by Oxford University estimated AI has a 98 percent chance of replacing real estate agents. Some of us may even express concerns over potential layoffs or job loss when automation advocates predict robots will start encroaching on a particular industry.

     Well, it’s true that a wide variety businesses have turned to robots to improve their operations, processes and bottom lines. However, for a number of reasons, it’s my belief that robots will never replace REALTORS®.

      So, don’t be afraid or fearful.  Let not your heart be troubled. Don’t worry about robots showing properties anytime soon. The role of a REALTOR® requires human intuition, reasoning, emotion and empathy -- traits that machines will never be able to duplicate. Human real estate agents are not on the way out. Here are a few of my reasons why.

-- For most people, home buying and selling is the biggest financial transaction they’ll make in their lifetimes. It’s an emotional experience, sometimes gut-wrenching and scary. And, it’s comforting to have a real person guide us through the process and all the paperwork. It comes down to trust. People want to look another human in the eye and judge whether they trust that person to help them make such a big decision.

-- Matching the heart and mind is something that only humans can do. Yes, a robot might be able to match a prospect’s wish list with available inventory.  I think we would all agree that home purchases are driven by human intuition and emotion.  An experienced REALTOR® can notice subtle signs, read body language and facial expressions, realize when it’s not going well and how things can be changed. We all know that no two buyers are alike, just as no two properties are identical. Last time I checked, a robot cannot think outside the box with a gut-check.

- Everything in life is negotiations and robots don’t negotiate. Machines can’t decipher the gray shades in life. They operate best when the outcome is predictable. Machines can collect data, but humans are better at communicating effectively. Negotiating is everywhere, as are give-and-take reasoning and overcoming the obstacles that are in the way. Humans are best at building trust and rapport with empathy and by showing the other party that you actually understand from where they’re coming. There’s no computer code for determining when a client needs to be guided to accept or decline an offer.

     While robots will never replace real estate agents, it’s conceivable that robots may be involved in our future deals. For example, robots may improve the accuracy and quality of information, such as providing precise interior and exterior mapping, home inspection and other functions that would contribute to greater efficiency. AI may help us, with Big Brother-like analytics, to find prospective buyers.

     At a recent open house in Southern California, guests were able to get answers from a robot that had been programmed with detailed answers to over 75 frequently-asked questions about the home. The robot also recorded the answers and fed that information into a potential buyer’s profile. In San Francisco, if you’re looking for a place to rent, you can now get a home tour from a tablet-carrying robot. The robot is controlled remotely by a real estate agent whose beaming face appears on the tablet.

It's a novel use of a robot, but there’s one major hitch: stairs. Robots have a hard time climbing large staircases.

Here’s news about another recent PSAR success: Once again, PSAR leadership has made a significant contribution that will result in additional housing availability and improved affordability for the San Diego real estate market.

Over the past two years, PSAR has been working closely with the City of San Diego on rules and regulations relating to what’s called “Companion Units.” While other governmental agencies call them “granny flats” or “accessory dwelling units” (ADUs), the City of San Diego calls them companion units.

Companion units, typically smaller than standard homes, are second units built on the same lot as an existing single-family home. Often, these secondary units are constructed in backyards or above garages of single-family residences. They can be used by family members or rented to seniors, students or others and can provide a source of income for homeowners. PSAR is in support of property owners expanding the use of their property as a way to address the region’s housing supply and affordability crisis.

PSAR’s participation with the City of San Diego recently culminated with the city's publication of the “Companion Unit Handbook,” a 38-page booklet that serves as a helpful guide to homeowners seeking to construct a companion unit on their property.  The handbook can be accessed here, CLICK HERE.

The handbook includes information on zoning, including setbacks and parking, companion unit design and construction, permitting requirements, funding options and additional resources. The handbook answers many popular questions relating to companion units, including: what is a companion unit and where is it allowed; what are the best sources for design of a companion unit; how does one make sure they’re well prepared; ideas and inspiration for the design of a companion unit; the construction and budgeting process; costs, timing and financial sources; impact on your property taxes; what is needed for permitting and occupancy.  

“It hasn’t been easy to make progress over the past two years, but it’s been very rewarding,” said Rafael Perez, PSAR REALTOR® member who has been leading the PSAR efforts with the City of San Diego.

“From the beginning, we brought a REALTORS® perspective to the table,” Perez said. “At first, some of the people at the city had not considered how companion units could change how homebuyers view their future purchase or how existing homeowners could increase their equity. So, we were able to help shape the regulations to benefit the city and homeowners and buyers.”

PSAR’s name appears on the cover of the city’s “Companion Unit Handbook” as a contributor to the publication, along with the San Diego Housing Federation and Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC). PSAR’s name also is appearing in a press release announcing the availability of the handbook that is being distributed by San Diego City Council member Scott Sherman.

“Personally speaking, I have been very grateful to receive input from PSAR,” said Sherman. “PSAR members have direct experience at helping their clients with companion units. So, it made sense to follow their advice in the writing of the handbook as we continue to seek workable, common sense solutions to fixing the housing crisis.”

Sherman agreed the handbook will serve as a helpful guide to help homeowners better navigate the process of construction a companion unit on their property.

“The design and construction of a companion unit is a step-by-step process. And, success often depends on preparation and a solid understanding of the process,” said Sherman. “For anyone who is considering building or adding a companion unit on a property, this handbook will be very helpful.”

Sherman added, “In a region where average rent is nearly $1,800 a month and the median price of a home is over $500,000, renters are actively seeking alternative options for affordable rent. In addition, homeowners are seeking alternative options in order to offset the cost of a home mortgage. Companion units can provide an immediate solution to the region’s housing supply crisis.”

Perez said, “Unfortunately, limited housing supply paired with limited construction of affordable for-sale housing units has put a severe strain on lower and middle class families. The ‘missing-middle’ forces families seeking the American Dream to make tough decisions to live on tight budgets or move out of the region. Making it easier to build companion units will help create options for more affordable homeownership as well as increase the supply of affordable housing units in our region.”

Granny flats, or companion units, represent perhaps the easiest and quickest way to provide additional affordable housing options to local residents. When it comes to housing that will help all of San Diego, PSAR is in favor of making the rules more streamlined and cutting through the thick red tape of processing the construction of new smaller rental units.

Current state regulations allow granny flats up to 1,200 square feet in size. They can be attached to, or built separate from, full-sized homes on the same parcel, and include kitchens, bathrooms, living areas and private entrances. They cannot be sold as individual homes, but they can be rented out by homeowners or used to provide additional living space for family members, friends, students, the elderly, the disabled, or in-home health care providers. Properties must meet all zoning requirements, such as setbacks that meet fire safety and building codes.

PSAR previously assisted the County of San Diego and the cities of Chula Vista and La Mesa with the creation and formation of ADU regulations.

PSAR members worked closely with the City of Chula Vista to reduce ADU fees and streamline their regulations. In the East County, following input from PSAR, La Mesa’s set of regulations for granny flats will, in some cases, enable the city to provide more options than do state requirements.

Meanwhile, at a County Board of Supervisors meeting held earlier this year, the Supervisors were considering a modification to their ADU code to require owner occupancy for an additional building on a lot, which PSAR recommended against. Fortunately, the Supervisors decided to remove the owner-occupancy requirement following PSAR testimony from Tracy Morgan Hollingworth, PSAR’s Government Affairs Director.

“I don’t know of any other local real estate organization that has given their support to these local jurisdictions like PSAR has,” said Robert Calloway, 2019 PSAR President. ”I’m very proud that these government bodies have turned to PSAR for assistance and agreed with our recommendations.”

San Diego County’s housing market in June, 2019 saw a 10.2 percent drop in sales but a 2.3 percent increase in prices, according to the latest housing market report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Sales of existing, single-family homes in San Diego was 10.2 percent lower in June in a month-over-month comparison with May 2019, as well as 12.5 percent lower in a year-over-year comparison with June 2018.

Meanwhile, San Diego County’s median, single-family home price of $665,000 in June 2019 was 2.3 percent higher compared to the figures from both May 2019 and June 2018, when the sales price was $650,000 for both prior months.

Statewide, California’s existing home sales fell below the benchmark 400,000 level in June 2019 after rebounding in May.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 389,690 units in, June, according to information collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the June pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

June’s sales figure was down 4.2 percent from the 406,960 level in May and down 5.1 percent from home sales in June, 2018 of 410,800. Sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark again after rebounding in May. Sales have been under the benchmark for 10 of the past 11 months.

Home sales in Southern California were down 9.1 percent in June with every county outside of Ventura (up 0.6 percent) posting declines. Los Angeles (minus-12.6 percent), San Diego, Orange (minus-7.6 percent), San Bernardino (minus-7.2 percent), and Riverside (minus-4.0 percent) experienced the biggest declines.

The statewide home price set another record in June 2019. June’s median price was $611,420, essentially unchanged from $611,190 in May 2019 and up 1.4 percent from $602,770 for June 2018.

Regarding regional level, median home prices in Southern California, only Ventura County experienced a year-over-year price decline. Other counties in the region recorded annual price growth ranging from 0.8 percent in Orange County to 5.7 percent in San Bernardino.

“With softer price growth and interest rates at the lowest levels in nearly three years, monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced home have fallen for four straight months,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “This allows homebuyers to save hundreds of dollars a month on the same home or to potentially consider a slightly more expensive home for the same monthly cost. Combined with the long-term benefits of homeownership on personal wealth and quality of life, 2019 is a good time to purchase a home for the long haul.”

C.A.R. Senior VP and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young agreed.

“With low rates supporting sales and elevating home prices in the last few months, the market outlook has shown some improvement since the first quarter,” she said. “As such, we have revised our 2019 forecast upward for (California) home sales to reach 385,460 and for the median price to hit $593,000, from the previous forecast of 375,100 and $568,800, respectively.”

Other key points from the June 2019 resale housing report included:

-- Active listings, which have been decelerating since December 2018, grew 2.4 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since April 2018.

-- The number of homes available for sale has moderated significantly, suggesting that the market is getting back toward being more balanced between supply and demand, but inventory remains relatively tight from a historical perspective. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 3.4 months in June, up from 3.2 months in May and up from 3.0 months in June, 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.  

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home increased in June. Time on the market inched up from 18 days in May to 19 days in June. In June 2018, it took a median number of 15 days to sell a home in the state.

-- In San Diego County, it took less than two weeks to sell an existing single-family home in June 2019. The median number of days a home remained unsold on the market stood at 13 days in June, compared to 14 days in May, 17 days in April, 19 days in March, 22 days in February and 13 days in June, 2018.

-- The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 99.2 percent in June, 2019, compared to 100 percent in June, 2018. The figures for the previous month were 99.3 percent in May, 2019 and 100 percent in May, 2018. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the property sold below the asking price.

-- The statewide price-per-square-foot average for an existing, single-family home statewide reached $292 in June, 2019, compared to $290 in June, 2018. The figures for the previous month were $292 in May, 2019, up from $286 in May, 2018. The May, 2019 figure was the highest level since late 2007.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.8 percent in June, down from 4.57 percent in June, 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 3.48 percent, compared to 3.82 percent in June, 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- San Diego County businesses are maintaining a relative upbeat outlook this summer, according to a recent survey by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce. The survey, which was fielded in late June, shows continued optimism among local businesspeople regarding hiring, hours offered and revenue in the coming months.

-- The San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos market had the sixth-highest average mortgage debt in the country among major metro areas in the year’s first quarter, according to Experian. The San Diego region ranked sixth with an average of $386,530 owed per homeowner. That average is a 2 percent increase over the San Diego metro area’s debt last year, which averaged $378,975 per homeowner in 2018’s first quarter. San Diego was one of seven of the top 10 metro areas with the highest debt to show an increase over their 2018 first quarter averages.

-- San Diego rents increased 0.1 percent in June, and have increased marginally by 0.8 percent in comparison to the same time last year, according to the most recent report by Apartment List. Currently, median rents in San Diego stand at $1,570 for a one-bedroom apartment and $2,030 for a two-bedroom. San Diego’s year-over-year rent growth lags the state average of 1.2 percent, as well as the national average of 1.6 percent.

-- San Diego is the fourth-best large city in the country in which to live, according to WalletHub, a personal finance website. WalletHub ranked cities with a population above 300,000 by evaluating their affordability, economic strength, education and health quality, quality of life and safety. A total of 62 cities were sampled for the list, with Virginia Beach, Vir., taking the top spot. San Diego ranked 51st in affordability but ranked among the top-10 cities in education and health, quality of life and safety, and 12th in economic strength. Joining San Diego and Virginia Beach among the top five were Austin, Seattle and Las Vegas in second, third and fifth, respectively.

-- WalletHub also reports that San Diego is among the top 20 best places to raise a family. WalletHub compared the family-friendliness of more than 180 cities across the country based on 47 key metrics. The data set ranged from the cost of housing to the quality of schools. San Diego ranked 18th, as well as fourth for family fun, 18th for education and child care, 21st for health and safety, 59th for socio-economics, and 96th for affordability.
Chula Vista also landed on the list in the 60th spot. The South Bay city ranked eighth for health and safety, 30th for socio-economics, 31st for education and child care, 97th for family fun, and 142nd for affordability.

-- San Diego has the second fastest rate of growth for tech talent in the nation, according to a new report by CBRE Group, Inc. The commercial real estate firm’s tech talent scorecard ranks 50 U.S. and Canadian markets according to their ability to attract and grow tech talent. While the San Diego metro was ranked 18th overall for tech talent, its year-over-year growth rate of 10.2 percent outpaced tech growth in both Los Angeles and Orange County. CBRE also found: San Diego ranks 14th in population growth of people in their 20s (5.6 percent); San Diego is 7th in tech labor market competitiveness; With 73,170 total tech jobs, San Diego has the 20th largest tech talent labor pool; San Diego ranks 7th in highest tech wages with an average salary of $106,047, 10 percent above the national average.

-- The unemployment rate in San Diego County ticked up from 2.7 percent in May to 3.3 percent in June, but year-to-year job growth remained strong, according to the California Employment Development Dept. The rate in San Diego remained well lower than the rate for California and the United States as a whole, which were 4.1 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.

I am honored to share with you the reasons why I’m involved as an active volunteer with PSAR, and why you should not wait another day to join me in showing a greater level of support for our Association.

It’s fair to say that our industry is under attack. Our profession is being threatened in a number of ways, including questions about the value that seasoned, experienced and knowledgeable agents can offer to clients. It seems the only constant in real estate is change.

When discussing how the changes the real estate industry is facing certain changes, you may have heard the word “disruptors,” which could refer to a variety of factors: ranging from new franchisers; tech-centric start-up brokerages;the iBuyer model; MLS data aggregators; reduced commission structures and the intersection between technology and real estate.

As a result of the changes in our industry, the role our Association plays becomes even more critical in empowering our REALTOR® members and protecting personal property rights.  Actually these industry changes provide an outstanding opportunity for REALTOR® Associations like PSAR to stay ahead of the curve and to step forward in support of its members. So, I want to be part of this. I want to be involved in something that is part of the bigger picture and better for all of us.

My own career in real estate has encompassed a variety of business models, ranging from traditional to start-up to hybrid. I believe there’s enough room for everyone to stay connected and to succeed.

There’s another reason why I’m eager to volunteer with PSAR.

I have found that my involvement benefits the bottom line of my own business because of the opportunities to become acquainted with my fellow REALTORS® and brokers. At the end of the day, real estate is a relationship business. Yes, we may all be competitors, but we can also work together on deals. And I would prefer to undertake transactions with colleagues whom I know and trust. We all know the hard sell no longer works. People do not respond to a guy yelling at them about an amazing deal that they can’t live without. Instead, we choose to do business with someone we like and can communicate with. Good relationships don’t happen by accident. They take cultivation, time and effort. 

In fact, being involved in PSAR helps me discover ways to bring people together. It’s true that there’s a lot of conflict in our world. It’s a world filled with wars, division, arguments, prejudice and partisanship. But, PSAR provides a platform that allows our members to become bridge builders, not wall builders. PSAR is here to encourage members. You will need others in rough times, and we can encourage each other in the process.

Consider the universal principle of “use it or lose it.” For example, if you don’t exercise, your muscles get smaller. If you don’t use your mind, it will become duller as you grow older.  It’s the same with PSAR. If you have a talent and refuse to share it, then you’ll lose that talent. The opposite is, of course, true. If you use your muscles, they get bigger. And if you use your talent to help others at PSAR, then you’ll develop even more skills and abilities that will help you throughout your life.

Let me recommend that you decide today to become more involved with PSAR. PSAR is your hometown REALTOR® Association. As you know, home field advantage can mean everything in sports. Teams who play at “home” win more often than when playing on the road. And, when a team has their hometown fans cheering them on, they can often exceed their ability. All of us at PSAR are here to cheer for you. It all starts with you giving back by joining a committee, volunteering at an event and looking for opportunities to serve at a higher level. Thanks in advance for your greater involvement and membership participation.

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Jason Lopez, who has worked in real estate for the past 25 years, became involved in PSAR leadership in 2016 while serving on a District Council. In 2018, he was elected to a two-year term on the PSAR board of directors. He was recently elected for a second term through 2021. He also will be serving as a C.A.R. Director in 2020. Currently, he is also serving as a facilitator of the weekly City Pitch Marketing Session at the PSAR Central San Diego Service Center in Clairemont.