HOMES SALES SLOWER IN JANUARY COMPARED TO DECEMBER

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 28, 2020 5:15:00 PM

January’s home sales were down by 19% from December 2019.

blog_200229_411Pacific Southwest Association of Realtors - Voice of Real Estate

San Diego County’s housing market started this year with a 14.6 percent increase in existing home sales for January 2020, compared to January 2019, according to recent statistics from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). However, January’s home sales were down by 19 percent from December 2019.

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in January 2020 was $660,000, a slight $5,000 increase from the $655,000 figure for December 2019. In January 2019, the median sales price in San Diego was $610,000, a decline of 8.2 percent from January 2020.

Statewide, in January, mortgage interest rates, which were at near or record lows, continued to sustain California home sales, while statewide home prices pulled back from one of the highest levels recorded last year.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 395,550 in January 2020, down 0.7 percent from the 398,370 level in December 2019 and up 10.3 percent from January 2019, when 358,540 homes sold. January was the second straight month for sales below the 400,000 benchmark.

January 2020’s statewide median home price was $575,160, down 6.5 percent from December 2019’s price of $614,880, and up 7.1 percent from January 2019’s price of $536,830.

January’s median price drop, the largest in the last seven years, was largely due to a change in the mix of sales with lower-priced properties making up a bigger share of the market, coupled with a seasonal slowdown. January marked the fourth straight month that the median price registered year over year growth of 6 percent or higher. 

January 2020 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

January 2020 County Sales and Price Activity

“The strong sales momentum that we saw in the second half of last year carried over into the new year, thanks to favorable homebuying conditions,” said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. “And while home sales were up double-digits from a year ago, it’s important to remember that current sales are being compared to a market that one year ago was at its lowest level in 10 years as economic uncertainties clouded the market outlook while the government shutdown delayed escrow closings.”

“With interest rates on a declining trend again due to concerns about the impact of the coronavirus, motivated buyers will have an opportunity to stretch their purchasing power in the housing market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The economic outlook, however, is less clear than a month ago before the outbreak of the disease, and we should expect market uncertainties to continue to linger on for the short term.”

With prices rising faster in recent months as housing inventory continued to shrink, consumer optimism rose both month-over-month and year-over-year based on those who believe it is a good time to sell a home. According to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in January, 62 percent said it is a good time to sell, up from 56 percent a month ago, and up from 50 percent a year ago.

The same motivating factors, however, may have curbed the optimism for homebuying as only 23 percent of the consumers who responded  to the poll believe that now is a good time to buy a home, slightly less than last year (25 percent), when interest rates were 84 basis points higher.

Other key points from the January 2020 resale housing report include:

-- The available supply of homes for sale in the state inched up slightly after reaching an 80-month record low in December but declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month.

-- Housing inventory continued to dwindle, with active listings declining 26.9 percent in January following a 25.9 percent dip in December.  The January drop was the largest since April 2013.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home devreased from a year ago, to 38 days in January 2019 to 31 days in January 2020. That compares to 28 days in December 2019, 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was 23 days in January 2020, which compares to 20 days in December 2019 and 28 days in January 2019. In other months, the number-of-days figure was 17 days in November 2019, 18 days in October 2019, 18 days in September 2019, 17 days in August 2019, 15 days in July 2019, 13 days in June 2019, 14 days in May 2019, 17 days in April 2019, 19 days in March 2019 and 22 days in February 2019.

-- The sizable drop in active listings, together with the surge in sales, resulted in a decline in Unsold Inventory Index (UII) to 3.4 months from 4.6 months a year ago. On a month-to-month basis, supply climbed 1.6 percent from the prior month but was lower than the average December-to-January increase of 2.8 percent, based on data going back to 2008. 

The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.62 percent in January, down from 4.46 percent in January 2019, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.33 percent, compared to 3.91 percent in January 2019.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- After a slow start to the year, San Diego County home prices finished 2019 on a high note. Prices in the San Diego metropolitan area jumped more than any other West Coast market in December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. San Diego metro’s price gain was 4.7 percent, ahead of the national average of 3.8 percent. America’s Finest City ranked fourth in the 20-city index for annual price gains, its highest showing since November 2017.

-- San Diego County’s median home price opened the year at $585,000, up slightly from the previous month. Home prices in January were up 7.9 percent annually, said CoreLogic. The median was down from the peak reached in November 2019 of $594,909. The same factors that have pushed up national and local home prices the past few months, including a shrinking number of homes for sale, low interest rates and job demand, are expected to continue to put upward pressure on prices.

-- San Diego County's housing inventory plummeted 34 percent year-over-year in January, marking the third most precipitous decline in the U.S., according to a new Realtor.com report. San Diego's drop was exceeded only by San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (37.3 percent) and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (35.4 percent). Nationally, housing inventory declined 13.6 percent from January 2019, the steepest year-over-year decrease in more than four years. It pushed the supply of “for sale” homes in the U.S. to its lowest level since Realtor.com began tracking the data in 2012.

January 2020 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)January 2020 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market

-- San Diego County was the fourth least affordable housing market in the U.S. last year, according to a First American Financial Corp. survey that concluded the least affordable markets were along the California coast. The survey found San Jose was the nation's least affordable market when comparing median income to sales price. San Jose’s median household income of $128,570 was sufficient to purchase an $806,600 home, but the median price for a single-family home in the city was over $1.03 million in 2019. San Francisco was the second least affordable with a median household income of $114,763 and a median priced home of $945,547. San Diego’s median household income of $81,274 in 2019 was sufficient to purchase a $509,883 home, but the median price of a single-family home in the county was $564,813.

-- 90 percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, reflecting a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88 percent recorded in 2003.These results are from Gallup's Mood of the Nation poll, conducted in January, which also recorded a 20-year high in Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy. The percentage of Americans who report being satisfied with their personal life close to the 86 percent who said in December that they were very or fairly happy.

-- U.S. employers added 225,000 jobs in January, a higher number than expected. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, at 3.6 percent. Wages increased 3.1 percent from the previous year; wages have grown at an average pace of 3 percent for the last 18 months. Also, the “labor-force participation rate,” meaning the percentage of Americans seeking employment, also increased.

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Topics: Announcements, Industry

PSAR REMEMBERS PAST PRESIDENT JERI VANDERPOOL, 1929-2020

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 25, 2020 11:44:56 AM

Jeri Vanderpool

The PSAR family recently lost another former PSAR president. Jeri Norman Vanderpool, who served as PSAR president in 1994, passed away February 4, 2020, roughly one month before her 91st birthday. She died peacefully from natural causes at home, in her favorite chair, surrounded by family members. Jeri, a lifelong resident of Chula Vista, had been a PSAR member since 1975.

Jeri was born on March 18, 1929, in San Diego. Her parents were Chet and Idell Norman. She attended F Street Elementary School in Chula Vista and graduated as valedictorian of Sweetwater High School, class of 1946. As a young person, she enjoyed water skiing on the Colorado River.

She attended San Diego State College and worked at Southwestern College when it first opened in 1961. She worked as an office manager for Chula Vista surgeon Dr. George Cave and later joined Mascot Realty in Bonita. Following that, she earned her broker’s license and founded Vanderpool Properties, which offered real estate sales and property management services. She operated Vanderpool Properties for more than 40 years.  

Jeri was active in real estate sales until age 90, when she turned over the business to a granddaughter, Meggan Copeland.

Family members remember Jeri as a fiercely independent single parent and a hard worker who enjoyed helping people with their real estate needs. She was a leader in the community, involved in the Girl Scouts, Republican Party and school activities, overseeing the PTA, Halloween Carnival and other special events. Active in the Chula Vista Chamber of Commerce, she was also an active participant in Toastmasters International. Jeri held a private pilot's license as well.

Jeri Vanderpool

PSAR staff members remember Jeri for her humor, sultry voice and intelligence. She was fun, funny and very smart.

She is survived by a sister, Pat Greaser, a son, Richard Vanderpool, a daughter, Susan Giamanco and three grandchildren, David Vanderpool, Chelsea English and Meggan Copeland, as well as three great-grandchildren. She was preceded in passing by her son, Tom Vanderpool.

A Celebration of Life service for Jeri Vanderpool will be held at 2 p.m., Saturday, February, 29, at Norman Park Center, located at 270 “F” St., Chula Vista. RSVPs are not required. All are invited to attend.

The Norman Park Center, a community facility, is named after Jeri’s father, Chet Norman, who was the City of Chula Vista’s first Park Supervisor. The facility opened in 1963 as the Norman Park Center for Senior Citizens. Chet Norman passed away in the mid-1970s.

Everyone at PSAR extends their sympathies and condolences.

Topics: Announcements

DOES YOUR CLIENT EARN ENOUGH TO AFFORD A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME?

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 21, 2020 4:57:58 PM

29% OF SAN DIEGO HOUSEHOLDS CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

Can San Diegans afford Median-Priced Homes

Slightly higher mortgage interest rates offset steady home prices and held California housing affordability constant during the 2019 fourth quarter, compared to the previous third quarter of the year. Fortunately, more Californians can afford a home purchase now, as compared to a year ago.

The percentage of home buyers who could afford to pay the $607,040 price for an existing, median-priced, single-family home in California in the fourth quarter 2019 was 31 percent, which was unchanged from the third quarter of 2019, but was up from 28 percent in the fourth quarter a year ago, according to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The statewide housing affordability index hit a peak of 56 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The index is considered a fundamental measure of housing well-being for homebuyers in the state. Housing affordability is still the main reason for out-migration. Housing affordability is a much bigger problem for first-time buyers, with 49 percent of first-time buyers changing their county residency over affordability issues. The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve, prices to stabilize and/or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.

In San Diego County, 29 percent of local households could afford to purchase the $655,000 existing, median-priced home in the 2019 fourth quarter, up from 24 percent in the 2018 fourth quarter, but unchanged from the 2019 third quarter.

On a statewide basis, to qualify to purchase an existing, median-priced, single-family home of $607,040 in the 2019 fourth quarter, a household would need a minimum annual income of $119,600 to make the necessary monthly payments of $2,990.

In San Diego County, to qualify to purchase an existing, median-priced, single-family home of $655,000 in the 2019 fourth quarter, a minimum annual household income of $128,800 would be needed to make monthly payments of $3,220.

The monthly payments, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, assume a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 3.89 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 3.85 percent in third-quarter 2019 and 4.95 percent a year ago.

The affordability index for condominiums and townhomes also improved in the 2019 fourth quarter from a year ago but showed a decline compared to the 2019 third quarter because of higher median condominium prices. Forty-one percent of California households earned the minimum income to qualify for the purchase of a $480,000 median-priced condominium or townhome, down from 43 percent in the previous quarter. An annual income of $94,400 was required to make monthly payments of $2,360. Thirty-seven percent of households could afford to buy a condominium or townhome a year ago.

Compared with California, more than half of the nation’s households (57 percent) could afford to purchase a $274,900 median-priced home, requiring a minimum annual income of $54,000 to make monthly payments of $1,350.

Key points from the fourth-quarter 2019 Housing Affordability report include:

• Compared to a year ago, housing affordability improved in 44 tracked counties and declined in four counties.

• Affordability improved in all Southern California regions, with Orange County being the least affordable (26 percent) and San Bernardino County being the most affordable (51 percent).

• During the fourth quarter of 2019, the most affordable counties in California were Lassen (63 percent), Kings (55 percent), Tulare and Plumas (52 percent each). The minimum annual income needed to qualify for a home in these counties was less than $54,000.

•  San Francisco (18 percent), San Mateo (20 percent) and Santa Cruz (21 percent) counties were the least affordable areas in the state. San Francisco County required the highest minimum qualifying income in the entire state. An annual income of $314,800 was needed to purchase a home in San Francisco County. San Mateo County also required an annual income exceeding $300,000 to purchase a median-priced home.

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Topics: Announcements, Industry

PSAR REMEMBERS HERMAN “HANK” MILLER, 1930-2020

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 16, 2020 8:00:00 AM

Merman Hank Miller

The PSAR family is sad over the recent passing of REALTOR® member and broker Herman “Hank” Miller. Hank passed away January 28 from lung cancer. He was 89.

A Celebration of Life service attended by family members was held Thursday, February 6, at the Little Chapel of the Roses in Bonita.

Hank was born June 16, 1930, in Barbourville, Kentucky In 1940, at age 10, Hank moved with his family to Chula Vista. As a teenager, Hank helped his father build homes in the South Bay community. He graduated from Chula Vista High School in 1948, when the school was located at Brown Field.

After high school, Hank worked at Rohr Industries. While at Rohr, Hank worked a second job as an owner and operator of one of San Diego’s first 7/Eleven convenience stores, located on Broadway in Chula Vista.

In January 1955, he got his barber's license. In 1960, he opened his first barber shop with good friend Paul Burton. Hank and Paul’s Barber shop, which operated for more than 50 years, was well known in Chula Vista. While working as a barber in his early days, he also practiced as a real estate sales agent.

In 1971, he became a member of PSAR. In 1975, he earned his broker’s license and opened Hank Miller Realty. His company also provided property management services. Some properties continue to remain under Hank’s property management company to this day.

The PSAR staff remembers Hank as someone who was full of love and laughter, always joking with a twinkle in his eye and a smile on his face, even when he wasn’t feeling well. He also cheered-on people in their business endeavors and made everyone around him feel as if he or she were the most important person in the world. Once you met him, you became his friend.

With his southern drawl, he would greet PSAR members by saying, “Well, hello PSAR. How are you doing today?” PSAR staff members also said he was a very happy, positive, compassionate, generous, and giving person who brightened up a room when he entered.

Several years ago, a fire damaged a neighbor’s home and Hank invited the neighbor to move into his home until he and his family could find another place to live. Hank even encouraged the family to continue their home Bible studies during their temporary stay.

Hank is survived by four of his five children; Kenny Miller, Dave Miller, Robert Miller and Debbie Miller. He also is survived by 10 grandchildren and 13 great-grandchildren and one great-great grandchild, a boy. He was preceded in death by wife Jean, who passed away in 2010, and a son, Fred Miller, who passed away of colon cancer on December 2, 2019.

Family members recall that Hank was deeply in love with Jean. They were married July 28, 1957. Hank visited Jean’s grave daily, even on the same day he was discharged from the hospital following heart surgery in 2010. He made sure the nearby landscaping was in order and the stone monument was clean. After his passing, family members found a letter Hank had written to them, expressing what a wonderful mother Jean had been, how she held the family together and just how much he loved her.

Family members also recall Hank as a friendly, genuine gentleman who loved people and life. He first battled lung cancer in 2018. Up to his last days, Hank’s words to family members were, “I’ll be okay, please don’t be sad.”

Janet Miller, a daughter-in-law, plans to continue his real estate brokerage under the name Hank Miller Realty. Hank renewed the company’s business license on January 15, 2020. Janet received her broker’s license January 30, 2020. “I will be proud to carry on his name,” said Janet. “He was a wonderful man.”

Everyone at PSAR extends their heart felt thoughts and condolences to Hank's family and friends.

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Topics: Announcements

PSAR IS ENDORSING TWO CANDIDATES FOR COUNTY SUPERVISOR

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 14, 2020 4:46:57 PM

 CANDIDATES FOR COUNTY SUPERVISORPSAR is endorsing two San Diego County Board of Supervisor candidates for the March 3 primary election.

The Supervisor candidates are Rafael Castellanos, a San Diego Port Commissioner, for the District 1 seat, and Joel Anderson, a former State Assemblyman and State Senator, for the District 2 seat. Both seats are open due to term limits for the incumbents. A number of other candidates are in the races for County Supervisor seats. The top two vote-getters in the primary election from each District will advance to a November runoff.

PSAR members completed research on the two candidates’ voting records and their public comments relating to preserving and protecting property rights, supporting public policies and initiatives that promote participation in the American dream of homeownership and property investment, and strengthening the ability of Americans to own, buy and sell real property. The endorsements were approved by members of the PSAR Government Affairs Committee and Board of Directors.

Castellanos is hoping to succeed Greg Cox, who was appointed in 1995, replacing Brian Bilbray, was elected to the House of Representatives. Cox is termed out after six terms. The First Supervisorial District includes the cities of Coronado, Imperial Beach, Chula Vista, National City and communities within Southeast San Diego, Point Loma, Sunset Cliffs and parts of downtown San Diego. The district also includes the unincorporated communities of Bonita, Sunnyside, Lincoln Acres and East Otay Mesa.

In addition to PSAR’s endorsement, Castellanos, a Democrat, has been endorsed by the Sierra Club, United Domestic Workers, Chula Vista Police Officers Association, San Diego County Democrats for Environmental Action, Longshore Workers Union (ILWU Local 29), San Diego Harbor Police Officers Association, La Raza Lawyers Association, Chula Vista Democratic Club, Deputy Sheriffs’ Association of San Diego County, San Diegans Against Crime, San Diego Deputy District Attorneys Association, San Diego County Probation Officers Association, National Electrical Contractors Association and Filipino-American Chamber of Commerce of San Diego.

Rafael Castellanos

Elected officials who endorse Castellanos include Chula Vista Mayor Mary Salas, Imperial Beach Mayor Serge Dedina,  Lemon Grove Mayor Racquel Vasquez, Chula Vista City Council member Jill Galvez, Chula Vista Port Commissioner Ann Moore, National City Council member Mona Rios, Chula Vista Elementary School District board member Francisco Tamayo and San Diego Unified School District board member Dr. Michael McQuary, along with Imperial Beach City Council members Paloma Aguirre, Ed Spriggs and Mark West.

At the Port of San Diego, Castellanos led the charge to pass the Port’s landmark Climate Action Plan, which resulted in accomplishing the biggest clean-up in the history of San Diego Bay. Castellanos led the Port of San Diego in tackling the homeless crisis, creating the policy and securing the funding to help relocate the homeless from the waterfront into treatment and housing. Castellanos has also led the expansion of the port of San Diego, which has created good paying jobs in the maritime industry while using renewable energy.

As an attorney, Castellanos has worked as general counsel to small businesses, helping them grow, succeed and create jobs. He has protected the rights of immigrants, refugees, and political asylum seekers, and helped generate more affordable housing in San Diego.  

Active in the community, Castellanos serves on the Board of Directors of the California Latino Economic Institute and is a member of the Mexican American Business and Professional Association and the San Diego Foundation’s forum on Climate Change.

Castellanos lists the major issues facing District 1 residents as jobs, housing affordability, environment and defending the rights of all San Diegans.

“I’m running to stand up for South Bay,” said Castelllanos. “I’m running to build a brighter economic future for South Bay families and ensure all our communities are treated with the dignity and respect they deserve. Unlike the usual crowd of political operatives and career politicians, I’ve actually gotten things done in the real world. At the Port of San Diego, I led the fight to clean up San Diego Bay. As an attorney, I’ve helped small businesses create jobs and protected the rights of immigrants. As your County Supervisor, I’ll put my proven record to work to create good jobs for working people, expand affordable housing for local families, protect clean air and clean water for all and defend the rights of all San Diegans.”

Castellanos’ campaign website is www.rafacastellanos.com


The District 2 seat is open for the first time in 28 years. Republican Dianne Jacob, first elected as Supervisor in 1992, is termed out after seven terms.

Anderson, a Republican, previously served for 12 years on a statewide level in the California State Assembly (2006-2010) and the California State Senate (2010-2018). He is known as an advocate for small business and a fiscal conservative.

In addition to PSAR’s endorsement, Anderson has been endorsed by former California Gov. Pete Wilson, State Senator Brian W. Jones (R-38th), the Republican Party of San Diego County and more than 40 elected officials from the East County.

The Second Supervisorial District, the largest of the county’s five districts, features more than 2,000 square miles and more than 50 communities and cities in the East County, including the unincorporated communities of Lakeside, Alpine, Ramona and Julian along with the cities of El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, Santee and Poway, as well as the city of San Diego communities of Allied Gardens, College Area, Del Cerro, Grantville, Navajo, Rolando and San Carlos.

Anderson lists the major issues facing District 2 residents as roads, housing attainability, homelessness, mental health and career opportunities.

“I will work to improve our roads, support attainable housing and promote career opportunities,” Anderson said. “I believe our children and grandchildren deserve the same benefits we enjoyed growing up in San Diego County. If our family members can find housing and work, maybe we won't have to travel to Phoenix to visit our grandchildren.”

Joel AndersonAccording to Anderson, “The County needs to do more to address the regional homeless crisis which is impacting business, tourism, safety and quality of life for all residents. I will be a leader in pushing solutions for housing, mental health and homelessness, unshackling our County’s economic engine and protecting private property rights.”

Anderson said his experience in Sacramento will greatly help him as County Supervisor. “County government is the administrative arm of the state government. The County is tasked with implementing State programs like Medi-Cal and CalFresh, as well as state public safety policies and child and senior welfare programs.

“I have over a decade of experience with crafting state policy, and in developing relationships with current legislators and the administration, including state department leaders who county officials must liaise with regularly to ensure effective services for our residents. Additionally, I have authored and coauthored 453 bills with Democrats and maintained positive working relationships with the super majority in Sacramento that can be utilized to bring more resources to San Diego County.” 

District 2 has a Republican majority among registered voters. According to recent registration data, 38 percent of voters are registered as Republicans, 32 percent as Democrats and 30 percent as having no political party affiliation.

In his 2014 reelection to the State Senate, Anderson received 69.7 percent of votes from District 2 voters. In the 2018 general election, when Anderson ran for the Board of Equalization, he received 55.2 percent of votes from District 2 voters, which was 17 points above Republican registration in the district. 

“I’ve always been an outspoken supporter of pro-jobs policies, government reform and lower taxes,” said Anderson. “My voting record in the state legislature shows that I’m a strong fiscal conservative and advocate for an effective, efficient and accountable government.”

As a state legislator, Anderson was honored numerous times by veterans groups, including nine Legislator of the Year awards from the American Legion, Veterans of Foreign Wars, Military Officers Association of America, Vietnam Veterans of America California State Council and Tuskegee Airmen, Inc.

He also was recognized with Legislator of the Year awards from law enforcement groups, including the California State Sheriffs’ Association and San Diego Deputy District Attorney’s Association; Business groups, including the San Diego County Apartment Association and California Small Business Administration; Medical-healthcare groups, including the San Diego Psychiatric Society and California Association of Marriage and Family Therapists; Recreational groups, including Sportsmen’s and Animal Owners’ Voting Alliance, California Rifle & Pistol Association and California League of Off-Road Voters.

Anderson’s campaign website is www.andersonforsupervisor2020.com.

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Senior Economist Analyzes Housing Market with PSAR

Posted by Rick Griffin on Feb 7, 2020 5:05:18 PM
PSAR ANALYZES HOUSING MARKETPSAR members filled a packed room earlier this week at the South County Service Center in Chula Vista for a look into the future by attending “2020 Housing Market Outlook,” a presentation by Oscar Wei, from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Wei is the Senior Economist and the Director of Research for C.A.R. He analyzes housing market conditions, consumer behavior, and public policy issues. He utilizes transactional data and survey research studies conducted by C.A.R. He assumes the managerial responsibility of data mining and analyzing housing market statistics that are released to the public on a periodic basis.

Wei told PSAR members to expect slow growth for the California housing market in 2020, but a recession is not expected this year. He also said rates will remain low this year, possibly 4 percent or lower, and sales will improve as low rates continue to provide support. But, Wei said, the supply shortage has gotten worse, which means lack of inventory will put pressure on price growth.

“There are a number of economic uncertainties that could put a drag on both the California market and the state’s housing market,” Wei said. He listed the uncertainties as stock market correction, Brexit, global economic slowdown, coronavirus outbreak, Federal Reserve decisions, trade conflicts and the presidential election. He said consumer confidence in January 2020 was at 131.6, the highest point since August 2019, but that American business leaders remain concerned about the current environment.

Wei said the economic fundamentals are solid for now. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis in the 2019 4th quarter, GPD was 2.1% and consumption was at 1.8%. In December 2019, the CPI was 2.3%, the unemployment rate was 3.5% and job growth was 1.4%. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 145,000 in December. Employers added positions for a record 10th straight year.

Existing single-family home sales in California for December 2019 were up 7.4 percent from the prior year, but declined 1.2 percent for the year as a whole from 2018. Tight housing inventory tamped down the benefits of low interest rates and held back California home sales in 2019. Existing, single-family home sales totaled 398,880 in December 2019 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November 2019. It marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark.

In December, the median single-family home price was $615,090, a 10.3 percent year-over-year increase from $557,740 in December 2018. The statewide median home price for the year as a whole was $592,450, an increase of 4.0 percent from a revised $569,480 figure in 2018. The year-over-year price increase was the largest since May 2014 and the first double-digit price increase in more than five-and-a-half years. 

Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home stood at 28 days in December, which was a 12.5 percent decrease from 32 days in December 2018. The December number compared to 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

Wei also noted that a sharp drop in active listings and a surge in year-over-year sales sharply curbed housing inventory in December 2019. The Unsold Inventory Index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was at 2.5 months in December, a drop of 28.6 percent in a year-over-year comparison (3.5 months in December 2018). The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

Wei said California cities are still not allowing construction of a sufficient number of new homes. “We’re not building enough housing units in California to keep up with demand,” said Wei. New housing permits totaled 114,370 in 2018, compared to an estimated total of 108,170 in 2019 and a forecast number of 108,620 in 2020.

Wei also offered highlights from C.A.R.’s most recent annual housing market survey and “Housing Affordability Index” (HAI) report, including:

  • Housing affordability is still the main reason for out-migration.
  • Housing affordability is a much bigger problem for first-time buyers. The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve and prices to stabilize and/or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.
  • 49 percent of first-time buyers changed their county residency due to housing affordability. 
  • 31 percent of California households could afford to purchase an existing $613,470 median-priced home in the third quarter, which was up from 30 percent in the second quarter of 2019 and 27 percent in the third quarter of 2018.
  • In San Diego County, 29 percent of local households could afford to purchase a $645,000 median-priced home in the 2019 third quarter, an improvement from 27 percent in the 2019 second quarter and 23 percent in the third quarter a year ago.
  • To qualify to purchase a statewide median-priced, single-family home of $613,470 in the third quarter 2019, a household would need a minimum annual income of $120,400 to make the necessary monthly payments of $3,010.
  • In San Diego County, a minimum qualifying annual income of $126,400 would be needed to make the monthly payments of $3,160.

Wei also discussed local market activity. In Chula Vista, 1,533 homes sold in 2019, compared to 1,407 in 2018, an increase of 9.0 percent. In El Cajon, 1,152 homes sold in 2019, compared to 1,133 in 2018, an increase of 1.7 percent. In the city of San Diego, 7,064 homes sold in 2019, compared to 6,774 in 2018, an increase of 4.3 percent.

Wei also shared with attendees the December median home price for the following cities: Chula Vista -- $589,000 in 2019 and $569,500 in 2018, a difference of 3.4 percent; El Cajon -- $539,950 in 2019 and $575,000 in 2018, a difference of 6.1 percent; City of San Diego -- $750,000 in 2019 and $695,000 in 2018, a 7.9 percent difference.

In December in Chula Vista, there were 105 active listings, a decrease of 58.3 percent from last year, and 24.8 percent of those active listings featured reduced prices.

Wei also mentioned December’s monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. With prices rising faster in recent months while supply continued to shrink, home sellers’ optimism improved both month-over-month and year-over-year. The poll revealed that slightly more than half (56 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, up from 51 percent a month ago, and up from 48 percent a year ago. Many buyers, however, remain uncertain about the current housing market conditions as only one-quarter of respondents (25 percent) believe that it is a good time to buy now, slightly higher percentage than last year (22 percent), when interest rates were nearly more than 100 basis points higher.

Wei’s presentation can be found at www.car.org/marketdata.

Wei contributes frequently to C.A.R.’s market analysis articles, Housing Matters Podcast and Housing Perspective. He has written about housing supply, distressed sales, housing tax policy, housing affordability, and many other topics relevant to the real estate industry.

 

To Download the Slide Deck from the Presentation Click Here

Topics: Announcements, Industry

HOME PRICES, HOME SALES LOWER LAST YEAR IN SAN DIEGO

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jan 31, 2020 5:05:54 PM

Voice of Real Estate.

San Diego County’s housing market saw a slight drop in home sale prices and home sales in December 2019, according to the recent statistics from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in December 2019 was $655,000, a drop of 0.6 percent from November 2019, when the median sales price was $659,000. But, a year ago, in December 2018, the median sales price in San Diego was lower at $618,500, a difference of 5.9 percent.

Meanwhile, San Diego home sales in December 2019 saw a decrease of 1.3 percent compared to November 2019, but a 17.4 percent increase in a year-over-year comparison between December 2019 and December 2018.

Statewide, in December, tight housing inventory tamped down the benefits of low interest rates and held back California home sales. Existing, single-family home sales totaled 398,880 in December 2019 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November 2019 and up 7.4 percent from December 2018’s revised 371,410 figure. It marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark. For the year 2019, annual existing statewide home sales fell for the second consecutive year to a preliminary 397,910 closed escrow sales in California, down from 2018’s pace of 402,640, a drop of 1.2 percent. 

The December 2019 statewide median home price was $615,090, up 4.3 percent from November 2019 and up 10.3 percent from $557,740 from December 2018. The statewide median home price for the year was $592,450, an increase of 4.0 percent from a revised $569,480 in 2018. The year-over-year price increase was the largest since May 2014 and the first double-digit price increase in more than five-and-a-half years. 

December 2019 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
December 2019 County Sales Activity

“Despite a sales slowdown at year-end, home sales were up from a year ago as interest rates remained low,” said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. “It’s important to note, however, that the increase was due partly to low housing demand in the prior year. Looking ahead, low rates should continue to provide support to the market as buyers have become more motivated to get back into the market, and home sales in California should see an improvement at the start of the year.”

“With housing supply dropping to the lowest level in nearly seven years, California experienced an unusual jump in its median price at the end of the year when the market is supposed to cool down,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “While low rates were fueling demand in the second half of 2019, supply constraints continued to put a drag on the market and undercut the positive effect of low rates. The surge in price is a byproduct of the imbalance between supply and demand as market competition continues to heat up.”

With prices rising faster in recent months while supplies continued to shrink, home sellers’ optimism improved both month-over-month and year-over-year, according to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in December. The poll revealed that slightly more than half (56 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, up from 51 percent a month prior and up from 48 percent a year ago. Many buyers, however, remain uncertain about the current housing market conditions as only one-quarter of respondents (25 percent) believe that it is a good time to buy now, slightly higher than last year (22 percent), when interest rates were more than 100 basis points higher.

Other key points from the December 2019 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, non-seasonally adjusted sales rose on both a monthly and annual basis in all major regions. On a yearly basis, sales in the Central Coast increased the most at 42.4 percent, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (16.0 percent) and Los Angeles (15.6 percent). The Inland Empire and Central Valley rounded out the remaining regions with annual increases of 13.3 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively. Forty of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. experienced year-over-year sales growth.

-- Also, regionally speaking, median home prices increased from last year in all regions except the Central Coast, with Southern California up the most at 10.0 percent, followed by the Central Valley (7.7 percent) and the Bay Area (6.9 percent). The median price in the Central Coast dipped from a year ago by 2.2 percent but edged up 0.7 percent from November.

-- Thirty-nine of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. reported a year-over-year price gain in December, with Siskiyou county experiencing the highest at 23.3 percent over last year. Of the 11 counties that experienced a price drop from last December, Mono county had the biggest decline at 26.1 percent, while the rest of the counties all had 8.3 percent or less in price losses.

-- California’s housing supply recorded back-to-back drops of more than 20 percent at the end of 2019, with active listings declining 26.5 percent in December after a 22.5 percent decrease in November. December marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year decline in supply, and it was the largest decline since April 2013. The number of active listings in December was, in fact, at the lowest level in nearly seven years.

-- The sharp drop in active listings and surge in year-over-year sales sharply curbed housing inventory in December. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 2.5 months in December, down from 3.1 months in November and down sharply from 3.5 months in December 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home fell from a year ago, declining from 32 days in December 2018 to 28 days in December 2019. That compares to 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market was seven fewer days in a year-over-year comparison, from 27 days in December 2018 to 20 days in December 2019. That compares to 17 days in November 2019, 18 days in October 2019, 18 days in September 2019, 17 days in August 2019, 15 days in July 2019, 13 days in June 2019, 14 days in May 2019, 17 days in April 2019, 19 days in March 2019 and 22 days in February 2019.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.72 percent in December, down from 4.64 percent in December 2018, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.39 percent, compared to 4.02 percent in December 2018.

In other recent real estate and economic news, reports:

-- According to CoreLogic, San Diego County’s median home price was $575,000 in December, a slight decrease from the previous month of November when the median price hit an all-time high of $594,909. San Diego County’s average price in December was up 4.5 percent in a year, ending the year on a high note after a sluggish first six months, per Core Logic.

-- San Diego County had 347 properties in some form of distress in 2019, a 4.6 percent decline in a year-over-year comparison, according to Attom Data Solutions. The total included 225 notices of default, 70 notices of a trustee’s sale and 52 REO properties. Among San Diego’s approximately 1.19 million housing units, only one in every 3,446 housing units are under some sort of distress. Nationally, default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions fell 21 percent year-over-year in 2019 to 493,066, which was the lowest level since tracking of this statistic began in 2005.

December 2019 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
December 2019 Unsold Inventory

-- December 2019 saw the largest year-over-year decline of housing inventory nationally since January 2018, according to Realtor.com's Housing Trends report. The 12 percent year-over-year drop pushed the number of homes for sale in the U.S. to its lowest level since January 2018. San Diego County experienced a much more significant drop as inventory fell 28.3 percent year-over-year in December. The inventory has continued to decline despite the median list price reaching $719,444 in December 2019, a 9.8 percent increase over the same month the previous year.

-- San Diego County closed out the year experiencing the fastest job growth rate in Southern California and a near-record low of 2.8 percent unemployment. There were 34,800 jobs added in San Diego County in the 12 month period, state labor officials said. The 2.8 percent unemployment rate in December 2019 was even lower than November 2019 at 2.9 percent. San Diego County’s jobless rate is one of the lowest in California (3.7 percent overall) and below the national rate (3.4 percent). San Diego’s rate hit 2.7 percent in May, based on revised numbers, the lowest rate since December 1999.

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Topics: Announcements, Industry

Looking to improve agent retention and productivity?

Posted by Richard D'Ascoli on Jan 31, 2020 1:37:58 PM

IMG_20190124_123203 (3)

Have training in your office.  PSAR & CRMLS will help.

  • Three trainers available to train in San Diego
  • Trainers will come to your office
  • PSAR offers meeting space for free to host office meetings.
  • Free training on 33 benefits that will make your team better.
  • Office training also available on PSAR's exclusive benefit called Savvycard.

As a Broker, what is your value proposition?  Brokers looking to improve agent productivity, professionalism and retention, should bring training and resources to their agents in-house. Brokers who show agents how to use these tools, provide added value.  As members of CRMLS, firms have many free or enhanced tools to choose from.  These tools help agents do a better job serving their clients.

When PSAR joined CRMLS, the CEO of Sandicor, and many important staff including three of the four Sandicor trainers became full time employees of CRMLS.  This knowledge is deep and it remains part of our organization.  These trainers are located here in San Diego to educate and support our Realtor members.  They will even train your team locally right in your office. Regular training and coaching can help your agents grow as professionals and enhance your broker/agent relationship. 

Some brokerages don't have the facilities to train all of their agents in one space. If this is an issue for you, PSAR will provide you with free meeting space to train your own at an office meeting hosted in our location?  In return, we only request the opportunity to spend two minutes outlining the benefits of being a PSAR Realtors.

 

Have a Trainer Visit Your Office

 

Here are some of the topics CRMLS will train on.  All of these tools are included for PSAR/CRMLS subscribers at no additional cost to agents or the brokerage. Savvy Card and Glide are two programs offered by PSAR.  PSAR staff can direct brokers to training resources for these benefits.  PSAR can also help brokers identify training for Zipforms and other CAR and NAR programs.
For a syllabus, class length and description, please check out more detailed information here.
  • Cloud Agent Suite 
  • Cloud CMA 
  • Cloud Streams
  • CRMLS Apps
  • CRMLS Marketing Tools
  • CRMLS System and Products Overview
  • Homesnap Pro App
  • Infosparks Market Statistic
  • Infosparks Marketview
  • LionDesk CRM
  • Matrix: Agent Essentials
  • Matrix: Broker Office Admin
  • Matrix: Creating a CMA in Matrix
  • Matrix: Realist Tax 2.0
  • Matrix: Searching 101
  • Matrix: System Updates
  • Matrix: Time-Saving Tips
  • MLS-Touch App
  • Paragon: Advanced Searching
  • Paragon: Agent Essentials
  • Paragon: Broker Office Admin
  • Paragon: Collaboration Center
  • Paragon: Creating a CMA in Paragon
  • Paragon: CRS Tax 101
  • Paragon: Hot Sheets/Tours/Open Houses
  • Paragon: Managing Listings in Paragon
  • Paragon: Searching 101
  • Paragon: ShowingTime for the MLS
  • Paragon: System Updates
  • Paragon: Time-Saving Tips
  • REALTORS® Property Resource®
  • Remine

Want to improve MLS rules compliance and avoid citations and fines?  

  • CRMLS Compliance Top Violations Overview is a great class.

Do you have a boutique office, or need a smaller training session?

Brokers with fewer than ten agents, are welcome to bring their team to training hosted at PSAR each month in each of our three offices.  Bring your entire office to any of these training sessions. Check out our education calendar and register your entire office for training.

 

Not using SavvyCard for lead generation and property marketing?  You should be.

PSAR also offers Savvy Card.  This is a unique marketing platform that includes Seller Share, Free Property websites and much more.  Savvy Card will train in your office as well!  Just email support@psar.org and request office training on Savvycard. Learn more about Savvy Card here.

Need more information, or have a question? Please comment in the form below and a friendly PSAR service member will get back to you!

 

 

Topics: Education, Brokers/Managers, PSAR Benefits

CAR Seller Exclusion form and CRMLS

Posted by Richard D'Ascoli on Jan 29, 2020 11:38:53 AM

CRMLS HAS NOT adopted the NAR mandated "Clear Cooperation" policy YET. (As of January 29th, 2020) 

While CRMLS is taking a lead position in developing implementation policies, there is more vetting to go through to make sure that an equitable and fair policy is developed.  Look for a policy to be adopted prior to May 2020.

What does this mean to listing agents for now?

When filling out the CAR Seller Exclusion, you DO NOT need to check this box.  This will change when CRMLS adopts the new policy.

MLS Clear Cooperation

 

PSAR RECOMMENDATION: NO ON A, YES ON B

Posted by Rick Griffin on Jan 24, 2020 4:51:00 PM

No on A - Yes on B

Get more information here.

The Pacific Southwest Association of REALTORS® (PSAR) Board of Directors recommends a "No" vote on Measure A and a "Yes" vote on Measure B in March California Primary Election. All members should inform friends and clients about these recommendations. Both measures are related because they address housing development in San Diego County. Voting by mail begins February 3rd and Election Day is a month later.

Measure A

Proponents named Measure A the "Save Our San Diego Countryside" initiative, is designed to stop land owners from building in both San Diego County and any city that introduces similar no-growth measures that stop new-home building. Measure A will harm the economy, take away private property rights and make the housing crisis worse. It will drive young home buyers away and force them to commute long distances. It will cost taxpayers up to $104 million to hold costly elections to approve as few as six additional homes if zoning is amended.

"Brought to you by wealthy, out-of-town investors"

The backers of Measure A have a secret weapon: A ballot argument that leaves out critical details about this unfair and deceptive ballot-box-planning measure. Measure A is brought to you by wealthy, out-of-town investors who wrote Measure A to protect the Golden Door luxury spa, which has contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars in support of  Measure A. This luxury resort near Escondido attracts the rich and famous. These extremely wealthy investors want to keep affordable homes far away from their exclusive hotel and force them into already-congested neighborhoods. Their measure exempts commercial and industrial developments, including casinos, hotels and Golden Door expansion.

"The measure uses deceptive language to gloss over the absurd six-unit threshold."

Measure A would require a countywide vote to add just six houses to the county’s General Plan, a planning document that guides growth in the unincorporated areas of the county. That means if someone wanted to add as few as six homes, Measure A would require that 1.6 million voters go to the ballot box to approve that change, in addition to the County’s current approval process. The measure uses deceptive language to gloss over the absurd six-unit threshold. The measure is flawed, with too many loopholes, and it sticks taxpayers with the tab for costly elections. Measure A creates an unfair ballot box planning scheme, allowing voters in large urban areas to make decisions for small rural communities.

"Measure A is opposed by both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party."

Measure A is opposed by both the Democrat Party and Republican Party, along with multiple chambers of commerce, firefighters, sheriff deputies and police officers. Add to that laborers, the Taxpayers Association, Farm Bureau, San Diego Housing Federation, Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Mayor Mary Casillas Salas, as well as Supervisors Greg Cox, Kristine Gaspar, Jim Desmond  and Nathan Fletcher. PSAR is joined in opposing A by other organizations, including the North San Diego County Association of REALTORS® (NSDCAR), Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS® (GSDAR), Associated General Contractors San Diego Chapter, New Majority San Diego, Save Our Rural Economy, California Apartment Association San Diego Chapter, Institute of Real Estate Management, Rental Housing Association and San Diego East County Economic Development Council.

Measure B

"...would approve 2,135 single-family and multi-family homes."

Home builders are bringing forth Measure B which is called "the Better Choice Measure." It would approve 2,135 single-family and multi-family homes, 60 percent of which (1,331) would be priced affordably for local working families. First priority for up to 500 of the first homes would be given to police, firefighters, teachers, active duty military and veterans. Yes on B would also approve 1,209 acres of permanent open space, 19 miles of trails and 36 acres of parks. This new housing community is located on 1,985 acres of privately owned land just west of Interstate 15, north of Deer Springs Road, and a little more than a mile from Escondido, Vista and San Marcos.

"Voting Yes on B would authorize the development of affordable homes for working families"

Under the county’s current General Plan this 1,900-acre site is designated for the development of 2 million square feet of commercial space and 99 estate homes. Voting "Yes" on B will authorize the development of affordable homes for working families, while voting "No" will retain the existing General Plan designation permitting massive 2 million-square-foot retail and office development, along with 99 luxury estates (zero affordably-priced homes).

Voting Yes on B would affirm the Board of Supervisors’ September 2018 approval of this new community that creates homes for working families instead of the current General Plan designation. This housing development went through the required planning process with the County of San Diego. So why are all San Diego County residents voting on this? 

Unfortunately, special interest groups behind the nearby Golden Door Spa are spending millions to reverse the Board of Supervisor’s approval of this community. So, voting Yes on B would uphold the County’s planning process and the Supervisors’ previous approval.

As REALTORS®, we know firsthand about the lack of housing available to families across our region. We need more housing, not another massive commercial complex.

PSAR is joined by a broad coalition in supporting Yes on B, including the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, Deputy Sheriff’s Association of San Diego, CALFIRE Firefighters and San Diego County Taxpayers Association. Other organizations supporting Yes on B include the North San Diego County Association of REALTORS® (NSDCAR), San Diego East County Chamber of Commerce, Chula Vista Chamber of Commerce, Oceanside Chamber of Commerce and San Diego North Economic Development Council. A number of city mayors are supporting Measure B, including Judy Ritter (Vista), Matt Hall (Carlsbad), Peter Weiss (Oceanside), Paul McNamara (Escondido), Rebecca Jones (San Marcos), Bill Wells (El Cajon), John Minto (Santee), Mary Casillas Salas (Chula Vista), Richard Bailey (Coronado) and Racquel Vasquez (Lemon Grove).

For more information on Yes on B, visit https://betterchoicesd.org/.

A special presentation covering Measures A & B, along with AB 1816, a fire insurance bill, will start at 9 a.m., Friday, January 31, at the PSAR East County Service Center, 1150 Broadway, El Cajon. Admission is free and a free breakfast will be served. For more information, call (619) 421-7811 or visit https://blog.psar.org/200131hottopics.

 

Topics: Announcements, Industry