Past leaders can teach us a great deal about handling adversity. Historians say that lessons learned by past leaders during tough times are often ignored or forgotten because people often view their current circumstances as different from those faced by people historically.

The truth is that for all that has changed throughout history, human nature remains remarkably the same . There are principles of individuals’ behavior that are constant over time,  especially when facing hardship. It’s also true that well-timed motivational words of encouragement and inspiration can lift morale during such times of crisis.

In spirit, we reached out to past PSAR presidents  from as long as 15 years ago for their “we-will-get-through-this-pandemic-together” thoughts.

So if you will take a few minutes and find a comfortable spot to read the following quotes, you may find that the words from these past leaders will resonate in this time of crisis and encourage you to believe that we will all not only make it through, we  will have gained something from the experience.

-- Robert Calloway (2019) 
“We will get through this tough time as we have done in the past. Continue to work with your past clients and update them on what’s happening in the real estate market. Also, please remain safe during the shelter in place, as there is no amount of money that can replace you or a loved one.”

-- Jan Farley (2018)
“We lived through the crisis of 2008. In every crisis and hardship, there is something good that comes out of it either by what we learn, or how we change the process, to make us better, smarter and stronger. That will absolutely be the case this time, too.”

-- Sarah Heck (2017)
“This too shall pass. This may be the catalyst for us as agents to find new ways to add value to our clients. Take this time to fine tune your processes, touch base with your sphere and practice self care. It can be easy to get swallowed up in the fear that comes from the valleys of a real estate career. Instead, focus on the peaks and how we are going to climb to the next one. I challenge you to look at this time as an opportunity to review and improve the foundation of your business so that you can grow stronger through today’s challenges.”

-- Anthony Andaya (2016)
“During uncertain times like these, some of the best things you can do are double down on your efforts to build relationships when folks are most receptive; triple down on your active listening and avoid sharing general opinions; quadruple down on your compassion and empathy for those you are speaking with. We are all in this together and together is the only way we will get through times like these. If you're going to quit on anything during these difficult times, then quit being lazy, quit making excuses, and quit waiting for the right time. Remember consistency is key in all you do especially in these trying times.” 

-- Carey Guthrie (2015)
“I think it’s a terrific time for REALTORS® to shine. I manage about 200 agents and I immediately ordered gloves, booties and masks for agents. During this crisis, I see a variety of things happening. My advice: don’t fall out of a regular routine; play by the rules, be safe and keep your clients safe; what you do now will contribute to success now and referrals down the road; provide the correct forms and the latest information daily to whoever needs it; keep a positive attitude for all.”

-- Bob Olivieri (2014)
“Just like past challenges we have experienced in PSAR’s 92-year history, we will get through this. Not only will we survive, our industry is in a position to thrive when this is over. Those of us who continue to work and keep in close contact with our friends, clients and prospects will reap the tremendous benefits that will come when we reach the slowdown of this pandemic.”

-- Peter Mendiola (2012)
“Your response to the current crisis is very important. How you react to any adversity and your attitude towards it will dictate your level of success for the days, weeks, and even years ahead. Many people will see the situation we are in, as completely doom and gloom, with a tone that the world is ending. I believe this is a fantastic opportunity for real estate professionals everywhere to stick to the basics, reach-out to as many people as possible and ask people how they’re doing. I’m extremely fortunate to be surrounded by very smart, optimistic people.
This is an incredible opportunity for all of us to lay the groundwork for an incredible increase in our production now and especially when the crisis is over. Having a positive attitude will give you a head-start and get you further ahead than many people who are unfortunately in a fearful place, and who are putting their heads in the sand.  It’s times like this that reshape our industry for the best and should remind everyone of the importance of being a professional well-informed Realtor. Stay positive and be a positive influence in peoples’ lives. Pick up your phone and start making phone calls!”  

-- Nikki Coppa (2011)
“I have no doubt that REALTORS® can make it through this pandemic and come out stronger than before. Every transaction a REALTOR® goes through has crazy twists and turns and it is our job to figure out how to help our clients navigate each one. Although a pandemic is a new twist, every day I watch the resilient adapt, move forward and close sales. When stay-at-home orders are lifted, `home’ will have a deeper meaning for most. The agents that push themselves out of their comfort zones now and reach out to their friends, family, clients and neighbors repeatedly will likely enjoy substantial benefits once we are all on the streets again.”

-- Pat Russiano (2009)
“During my real estate career which spans nearly three decades, I’ve helped buyers and sellers navigate many up-and-down markets and trying times. Statistics label the ups-and-downs, but every market’s challenges must be met and can be met with continued belief in yourself and surrounding yourself with professional mentors and peers. This particular period in history, like all others, has very unique issues that require our problem-solving skills. When times seem toughest, it is not the time to withdraw. Engage with your industry leaders and you will realize there are resources and answers if you look and ask. It is just as important to engage and help where your talents can be used the most. The actual delivery of our services is requiring the most thought, the most care, the most caution. But we can do this. We are learning a lot and I’m certain the lessons learned will make us stronger for it. Focus on the problem to get your bearings. Then focus on the solution on how we can keep helping the families that we’ve always found ways to help using the safety protocols in all ways that this particular market requires.”

-- Barbara Brown Hahn (2008)
“Hang in there! Tough times teach you so much, lessons you’ll use throughout your careers. And they give you great stories to tell! Keep your sense of humor.”

 -- Susan Olivier (2007)
“I know that we are all going through a tough time now. But we will make it through. Keep your eyes on what you do have, such as your own wellbeing, your family and friends, your fur babies, all you've accomplished. Take time to reflect on all the positives in your life and before you know it, this will pass.”

-- Mark Scott (2006)
“Now is a time that you can show your value by implementing best practice safety measures while still going to work every day. The great recession required a level of professionalism that until then was unprecedented in our lifetime. This is no different. Reach out to your friends, family and sphere of influence and you can come out of this stronger than when this pandemic started. Stay safe and go to work.”

-- Suzanne Yavorsky (2005)  
“Tie a knot on the end of the rope and hang on for the ride as this too will pass. The sun will shine again and keep the faith.”

-- Isabel Hall (2002)
“I love real estate agents, because they are first and foremost optimists. That optimism in this time is essential. Through this challenge, make the most of your optimism. This situation is not going to last for years and years; it’s going to last for several months. And when those months have passed, the recovery will be amazing to watch. Meanwhile, exercise daily for endorphins, make the most of this time with your families, and stay safe so you can enjoy the incredible recovery.”

PSAR launches Property Management Resource Page
PSAR will provide links and resources to property managers and landlords to help with information as we navigate the COVID-19 Crisis. It can be found here.

Judicial Council Suspends Evictions and Foreclosures
Among the actions the council approved, to go into effect immediately: Suspend the entry of defaults in eviction cases & Suspend judicial foreclosures. More information here.

CAR Releases two New Property Management Forms 4/6/2020
Form NTAP (Notice to Tenant of Ability to Pay Rent During Coronavirus Pandemic) is an informational notice that a landlord can send to a tenant for the purpose of starting a dialogue with the tenant regarding the payment of rent during the coronavirus pandemic.
Form RPD (Coronavirus Rent Payment Delay and Repayment) is an addendum to a residential lease or rental agreement that, when agreed to and signed by the landlord and tenant, documents the tenant’s claim that the tenant is unable to pay rent and the reason for the inability; proof of the inability to pay; the amount of the rent not being paid; and a plan to pay it in the future.

The Senate has just passed the Coronavirus aid, relief and economic security (CARES) Act, a stimulus package that will provide assistants to Realtors.   C.A.R. is closely monitoring the legislation.   Review CAR's update here.

Service information can be found here.

DRE Closes Offices

All DRE offices are closed to the public until further notice in compliance with Governor Gavin Newsom’s Executive Order N-33-20, issued March 19, 2020, ordering all California residents to shelter in place to slow the spread of COVID-19. 

PSAR Changes Services 

PSAR Launches New Temporary Processes to comply with the Governor's order. 

PSAR will support sale of  lockboxes and retail merchandise via pre-payment over the phone and pickup by appointment only.  Boxes that need repairs, replacement, or new batteries will be exchanged  for refurbished boxes following a pre-scheduled troubleshooting session.

Offices are closed, but member support will be provided by phone, chat, email or video call.  The PSAR staff is ready to provide full support to our realty community while adhering to the mandated state guidelines. 

We, like you, are working through this challenge by adapting to a dynamic environment.  If you would like to express any concerns or comments, please email support@psar.org.

PSAR Plans to protest proposal to hike property taxes with sewer bill.

The El Cajon City Council is attempting to add sewer charges to homeowners’ semi-annual property tax bills. The City Council is scheduled to discuss this proposal at their next meeting, located at 200 Civic Center Way, El Cajon, 92020, on Tuesday, March 10 at 3:00 pm.

PSAR encourages you to advise your El Cajon clients who own property (residential, commercial, industrial) to send a protest letter to the El Cajon City Clerk before 2:00 pm Tuesday, March 10, in protest of adding sewer charges to their property tax bills.

This may seem at first to be an innocent action by elected officials. However, in reality, adding sewer charges to property taxes would have a far-reaching impact to individual homebuyers and for the city of El Cajon overall.

If these additions are approved, future homebuyers would need more money to qualify for a mortgage. The reason is because higher property taxes always result in lower borrowing ability. Another negative effect would be lower housing values, including lost equity, because a higher property tax bill will shrink a homebuyer’s available pool of money available to purchase a home. 

The bottom line is that anytime a property tax bill increases,  the higher amount  adversely affects the local real estate industry. Adding sewer charges to property taxes will reduce the buying power of homebuyers. 

Here are some numbers to consider: 

For a typical $400,000 home, purchased with 20 percent down and an 80 percent, 30-year mortgage loan at 5.5 percent, the monthly mortgage payment is approximately $1,817, insurance is $67 (based on $800/year) and property taxes are $367 (based on 1.1 percent of assessed value) for a total monthly payment of $2,251. However, if a sewer charge of $45 (based on property taxes of $540/year) were to be added, the total monthly mortgage payment for the same home would increase from $2,251 to $2,296. Sewer charges are calculated based on water use at each property. 

Furthermore, with a 40 percent minimum qualifying income, the homebuyer would need an annual income of $68,880 instead of $67,530 without the sewer bill added to their property taxes. That translates to a 2 percent higher income needed to qualify for the same loan. A homebuyer’s purchasing power is reduced by $8,000 when  an increased average sewer charge is added to the property tax bill. 

There are many issues and questions with which residents should be concerned. Seniors and individuals on a fixed income will be hit by a large bill at the end of the year. What considerations have been made for these individuals? Who will ratepayers go to when there is an error on the sewer bill if those charges are added to the annual tax payment? Although billing through the tax roll may be slightly less expensive each month, an incorrect bill can be much more impactful. The city intends to defer income from sewer ratepayers until the end of the year. How is that money financed? Isn’t it better for the city to collect this money upfront rather than waiting until the end of the year to bill? How much will this cost taxpayers?

This is not the first time the El Cajon City Council has attempted this action. In July 2013, a proposal to add sewer charges to property tax bills was flushed down the proverbial toilet. Municipalities are attracted to pass-through wastewater sewer costs coupled with property taxes because it saves the city time and money in mailing and administrative processing costs. It also allows for an easier way for cities to earmark construction costs for necessary sewer line repairs. In El Cajon, the city maintains nearly 200 miles of underground pipeline, with the majority of piping constructed before 1965. Many lines date back to the 1920’s. 

Last year, El Cajon approved higher sewer rates over the next five years. A typical customer paying $48.31 each month for sewer services will see his or her bill increase to $55.09 in 2020, $61.22 in 2021, $69.70 in 2022, $77.35 in 2023 and $88.76 in 2024. The city’s 17,000 residential customers haven’t seen a rate increase since 2011. Before then, the last adjustment to sewer rates in El Cajon was in 1999. Wastewater in El Cajon is piped to San Diego’s Point Loma treatment plant where it is treated and then released into the ocean.

The El Cajon City Council meeting on Tuesday, March 10 will begin at 3:00 p.m. at El Cajon City Hall, 200 Civic Center Way, El Cajon. The city council meeting is open to the public. PSAR members are encouraged to attend. Oral objections and/or protests may be made at the public hearing.

You are also encouraged to send an e-mail to the City of El Cajon stating your opposition. In your e-mail, refer to the “Sewer Billing System Change to the Property Tax Roll.” Protest emails must be sent prior to 2:00 p.m. on March 10. Any written objection or protest must include your name, Assessor Parcel Number (APN), sewer service address and a statement indicating your opposition to the placement of the sewer charges on the property tax bill. Protest emails can be sent to the City Clerk Angela Cortez at cityclerk@cityofelcajon.us,  or the City Manager Graham Mitchell at gmitchell@cityofelcajon.us.

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January’s home sales were down by 19% from December 2019.

San Diego County’s housing market started this year with a 14.6 percent increase in existing home sales for January 2020, compared to January 2019, according to recent statistics from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). However, January’s home sales were down by 19 percent from December 2019.

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in January 2020 was $660,000, a slight $5,000 increase from the $655,000 figure for December 2019. In January 2019, the median sales price in San Diego was $610,000, a decline of 8.2 percent from January 2020.

Statewide, in January, mortgage interest rates, which were at near or record lows, continued to sustain California home sales, while statewide home prices pulled back from one of the highest levels recorded last year.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 395,550 in January 2020, down 0.7 percent from the 398,370 level in December 2019 and up 10.3 percent from January 2019, when 358,540 homes sold. January was the second straight month for sales below the 400,000 benchmark.

January 2020’s statewide median home price was $575,160, down 6.5 percent from December 2019’s price of $614,880, and up 7.1 percent from January 2019’s price of $536,830.

January’s median price drop, the largest in the last seven years, was largely due to a change in the mix of sales with lower-priced properties making up a bigger share of the market, coupled with a seasonal slowdown. January marked the fourth straight month that the median price registered year over year growth of 6 percent or higher. 

January 2020 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

“The strong sales momentum that we saw in the second half of last year carried over into the new year, thanks to favorable homebuying conditions,” said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. “And while home sales were up double-digits from a year ago, it’s important to remember that current sales are being compared to a market that one year ago was at its lowest level in 10 years as economic uncertainties clouded the market outlook while the government shutdown delayed escrow closings.”

“With interest rates on a declining trend again due to concerns about the impact of the coronavirus, motivated buyers will have an opportunity to stretch their purchasing power in the housing market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The economic outlook, however, is less clear than a month ago before the outbreak of the disease, and we should expect market uncertainties to continue to linger on for the short term.”

With prices rising faster in recent months as housing inventory continued to shrink, consumer optimism rose both month-over-month and year-over-year based on those who believe it is a good time to sell a home. According to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in January, 62 percent said it is a good time to sell, up from 56 percent a month ago, and up from 50 percent a year ago.

The same motivating factors, however, may have curbed the optimism for homebuying as only 23 percent of the consumers who responded  to the poll believe that now is a good time to buy a home, slightly less than last year (25 percent), when interest rates were 84 basis points higher.

Other key points from the January 2020 resale housing report include:

-- The available supply of homes for sale in the state inched up slightly after reaching an 80-month record low in December but declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month.

-- Housing inventory continued to dwindle, with active listings declining 26.9 percent in January following a 25.9 percent dip in December.  The January drop was the largest since April 2013.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home devreased from a year ago, to 38 days in January 2019 to 31 days in January 2020. That compares to 28 days in December 2019, 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was 23 days in January 2020, which compares to 20 days in December 2019 and 28 days in January 2019. In other months, the number-of-days figure was 17 days in November 2019, 18 days in October 2019, 18 days in September 2019, 17 days in August 2019, 15 days in July 2019, 13 days in June 2019, 14 days in May 2019, 17 days in April 2019, 19 days in March 2019 and 22 days in February 2019.

-- The sizable drop in active listings, together with the surge in sales, resulted in a decline in Unsold Inventory Index (UII) to 3.4 months from 4.6 months a year ago. On a month-to-month basis, supply climbed 1.6 percent from the prior month but was lower than the average December-to-January increase of 2.8 percent, based on data going back to 2008. 

The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.62 percent in January, down from 4.46 percent in January 2019, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.33 percent, compared to 3.91 percent in January 2019.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- After a slow start to the year, San Diego County home prices finished 2019 on a high note. Prices in the San Diego metropolitan area jumped more than any other West Coast market in December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. San Diego metro’s price gain was 4.7 percent, ahead of the national average of 3.8 percent. America’s Finest City ranked fourth in the 20-city index for annual price gains, its highest showing since November 2017.

-- San Diego County’s median home price opened the year at $585,000, up slightly from the previous month. Home prices in January were up 7.9 percent annually, said CoreLogic. The median was down from the peak reached in November 2019 of $594,909. The same factors that have pushed up national and local home prices the past few months, including a shrinking number of homes for sale, low interest rates and job demand, are expected to continue to put upward pressure on prices.

-- San Diego County's housing inventory plummeted 34 percent year-over-year in January, marking the third most precipitous decline in the U.S., according to a new Realtor.com report. San Diego's drop was exceeded only by San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (37.3 percent) and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (35.4 percent). Nationally, housing inventory declined 13.6 percent from January 2019, the steepest year-over-year decrease in more than four years. It pushed the supply of “for sale” homes in the U.S. to its lowest level since Realtor.com began tracking the data in 2012.

January 2020 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- San Diego County was the fourth least affordable housing market in the U.S. last year, according to a First American Financial Corp. survey that concluded the least affordable markets were along the California coast. The survey found San Jose was the nation's least affordable market when comparing median income to sales price. San Jose’s median household income of $128,570 was sufficient to purchase an $806,600 home, but the median price for a single-family home in the city was over $1.03 million in 2019. San Francisco was the second least affordable with a median household income of $114,763 and a median priced home of $945,547. San Diego’s median household income of $81,274 in 2019 was sufficient to purchase a $509,883 home, but the median price of a single-family home in the county was $564,813.

-- 90 percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, reflecting a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88 percent recorded in 2003.These results are from Gallup's Mood of the Nation poll, conducted in January, which also recorded a 20-year high in Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy. The percentage of Americans who report being satisfied with their personal life close to the 86 percent who said in December that they were very or fairly happy.

-- U.S. employers added 225,000 jobs in January, a higher number than expected. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, at 3.6 percent. Wages increased 3.1 percent from the previous year; wages have grown at an average pace of 3 percent for the last 18 months. Also, the “labor-force participation rate,” meaning the percentage of Americans seeking employment, also increased.

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The PSAR family recently lost another former PSAR president. Jeri Norman Vanderpool, who served as PSAR president in 1994, passed away February 4, 2020, roughly one month before her 91st birthday. She died peacefully from natural causes at home, in her favorite chair, surrounded by family members. Jeri, a lifelong resident of Chula Vista, had been a PSAR member since 1975.

Jeri was born on March 18, 1929, in San Diego. Her parents were Chet and Idell Norman. She attended F Street Elementary School in Chula Vista and graduated as valedictorian of Sweetwater High School, class of 1946. As a young person, she enjoyed water skiing on the Colorado River.

She attended San Diego State College and worked at Southwestern College when it first opened in 1961. She worked as an office manager for Chula Vista surgeon Dr. George Cave and later joined Mascot Realty in Bonita. Following that, she earned her broker’s license and founded Vanderpool Properties, which offered real estate sales and property management services. She operated Vanderpool Properties for more than 40 years.  

Jeri was active in real estate sales until age 90, when she turned over the business to a granddaughter, Meggan Copeland.

Family members remember Jeri as a fiercely independent single parent and a hard worker who enjoyed helping people with their real estate needs. She was a leader in the community, involved in the Girl Scouts, Republican Party and school activities, overseeing the PTA, Halloween Carnival and other special events. Active in the Chula Vista Chamber of Commerce, she was also an active participant in Toastmasters International. Jeri held a private pilot's license as well.

PSAR staff members remember Jeri for her humor, sultry voice and intelligence. She was fun, funny and very smart.

She is survived by a sister, Pat Greaser, a son, Richard Vanderpool, a daughter, Susan Giamanco and three grandchildren, David Vanderpool, Chelsea English and Meggan Copeland, as well as three great-grandchildren. She was preceded in passing by her son, Tom Vanderpool.

A Celebration of Life service for Jeri Vanderpool will be held at 2 p.m., Saturday, February, 29, at Norman Park Center, located at 270 “F” St., Chula Vista. RSVPs are not required. All are invited to attend.

The Norman Park Center, a community facility, is named after Jeri’s father, Chet Norman, who was the City of Chula Vista’s first Park Supervisor. The facility opened in 1963 as the Norman Park Center for Senior Citizens. Chet Norman passed away in the mid-1970s.

Everyone at PSAR extends their sympathies and condolences.

29% OF SAN DIEGO HOUSEHOLDS CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

Slightly higher mortgage interest rates offset steady home prices and held California housing affordability constant during the 2019 fourth quarter, compared to the previous third quarter of the year. Fortunately, more Californians can afford a home purchase now, as compared to a year ago.

The percentage of home buyers who could afford to pay the $607,040 price for an existing, median-priced, single-family home in California in the fourth quarter 2019 was 31 percent, which was unchanged from the third quarter of 2019, but was up from 28 percent in the fourth quarter a year ago, according to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The statewide housing affordability index hit a peak of 56 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The index is considered a fundamental measure of housing well-being for homebuyers in the state. Housing affordability is still the main reason for out-migration. Housing affordability is a much bigger problem for first-time buyers, with 49 percent of first-time buyers changing their county residency over affordability issues. The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve, prices to stabilize and/or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.

In San Diego County, 29 percent of local households could afford to purchase the $655,000 existing, median-priced home in the 2019 fourth quarter, up from 24 percent in the 2018 fourth quarter, but unchanged from the 2019 third quarter.

On a statewide basis, to qualify to purchase an existing, median-priced, single-family home of $607,040 in the 2019 fourth quarter, a household would need a minimum annual income of $119,600 to make the necessary monthly payments of $2,990.

In San Diego County, to qualify to purchase an existing, median-priced, single-family home of $655,000 in the 2019 fourth quarter, a minimum annual household income of $128,800 would be needed to make monthly payments of $3,220.

The monthly payments, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, assume a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 3.89 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 3.85 percent in third-quarter 2019 and 4.95 percent a year ago.

The affordability index for condominiums and townhomes also improved in the 2019 fourth quarter from a year ago but showed a decline compared to the 2019 third quarter because of higher median condominium prices. Forty-one percent of California households earned the minimum income to qualify for the purchase of a $480,000 median-priced condominium or townhome, down from 43 percent in the previous quarter. An annual income of $94,400 was required to make monthly payments of $2,360. Thirty-seven percent of households could afford to buy a condominium or townhome a year ago.

Compared with California, more than half of the nation’s households (57 percent) could afford to purchase a $274,900 median-priced home, requiring a minimum annual income of $54,000 to make monthly payments of $1,350.

Key points from the fourth-quarter 2019 Housing Affordability report include:

• Compared to a year ago, housing affordability improved in 44 tracked counties and declined in four counties.

• Affordability improved in all Southern California regions, with Orange County being the least affordable (26 percent) and San Bernardino County being the most affordable (51 percent).

• During the fourth quarter of 2019, the most affordable counties in California were Lassen (63 percent), Kings (55 percent), Tulare and Plumas (52 percent each). The minimum annual income needed to qualify for a home in these counties was less than $54,000.

•  San Francisco (18 percent), San Mateo (20 percent) and Santa Cruz (21 percent) counties were the least affordable areas in the state. San Francisco County required the highest minimum qualifying income in the entire state. An annual income of $314,800 was needed to purchase a home in San Francisco County. San Mateo County also required an annual income exceeding $300,000 to purchase a median-priced home.

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Wei is the Senior Economist and the Director of Research for C.A.R. He analyzes housing market conditions, consumer behavior, and public policy issues. He utilizes transactional data and survey research studies conducted by C.A.R. He assumes the managerial responsibility of data mining and analyzing housing market statistics that are released to the public on a periodic basis.

Wei told PSAR members to expect slow growth for the California housing market in 2020, but a recession is not expected this year. He also said rates will remain low this year, possibly 4 percent or lower, and sales will improve as low rates continue to provide support. But, Wei said, the supply shortage has gotten worse, which means lack of inventory will put pressure on price growth.

“There are a number of economic uncertainties that could put a drag on both the California market and the state’s housing market,” Wei said. He listed the uncertainties as stock market correction, Brexit, global economic slowdown, coronavirus outbreak, Federal Reserve decisions, trade conflicts and the presidential election. He said consumer confidence in January 2020 was at 131.6, the highest point since August 2019, but that American business leaders remain concerned about the current environment.

Wei said the economic fundamentals are solid for now. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis in the 2019 4th quarter, GPD was 2.1% and consumption was at 1.8%. In December 2019, the CPI was 2.3%, the unemployment rate was 3.5% and job growth was 1.4%. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 145,000 in December. Employers added positions for a record 10th straight year.

Existing single-family home sales in California for December 2019 were up 7.4 percent from the prior year, but declined 1.2 percent for the year as a whole from 2018. Tight housing inventory tamped down the benefits of low interest rates and held back California home sales in 2019. Existing, single-family home sales totaled 398,880 in December 2019 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November 2019. It marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark.

In December, the median single-family home price was $615,090, a 10.3 percent year-over-year increase from $557,740 in December 2018. The statewide median home price for the year as a whole was $592,450, an increase of 4.0 percent from a revised $569,480 figure in 2018. The year-over-year price increase was the largest since May 2014 and the first double-digit price increase in more than five-and-a-half years. 

Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home stood at 28 days in December, which was a 12.5 percent decrease from 32 days in December 2018. The December number compared to 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

Wei also noted that a sharp drop in active listings and a surge in year-over-year sales sharply curbed housing inventory in December 2019. The Unsold Inventory Index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was at 2.5 months in December, a drop of 28.6 percent in a year-over-year comparison (3.5 months in December 2018). The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

Wei said California cities are still not allowing construction of a sufficient number of new homes. “We’re not building enough housing units in California to keep up with demand,” said Wei. New housing permits totaled 114,370 in 2018, compared to an estimated total of 108,170 in 2019 and a forecast number of 108,620 in 2020.

Wei also offered highlights from C.A.R.’s most recent annual housing market survey and “Housing Affordability Index” (HAI) report, including:

• Housing affordability is still the main reason for out-migration.
• Housing affordability is a much bigger problem for first-time buyers. The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve and prices to stabilize and/or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.
• 49 percent of first-time buyers changed their county residency due to housing affordability. 
• 31 percent of California households could afford to purchase an existing $613,470 median-priced home in the third quarter, which was up from 30 percent in the second quarter of 2019 and 27 percent in the third quarter of 2018.
• In San Diego County, 29 percent of local households could afford to purchase a $645,000 median-priced home in the 2019 third quarter, an improvement from 27 percent in the 2019 second quarter and 23 percent in the third quarter a year ago.
• To qualify to purchase a statewide median-priced, single-family home of $613,470 in the third quarter 2019, a household would need a minimum annual income of $120,400 to make the necessary monthly payments of $3,010.
• In San Diego County, a minimum qualifying annual income of $126,400 would be needed to make the monthly payments of $3,160.

Wei also discussed local market activity. In Chula Vista, 1,533 homes sold in 2019, compared to 1,407 in 2018, an increase of 9.0 percent. In El Cajon, 1,152 homes sold in 2019, compared to 1,133 in 2018, an increase of 1.7 percent. In the city of San Diego, 7,064 homes sold in 2019, compared to 6,774 in 2018, an increase of 4.3 percent.

Wei also shared with attendees the December median home price for the following cities: Chula Vista -- $589,000 in 2019 and $569,500 in 2018, a difference of 3.4 percent; El Cajon -- $539,950 in 2019 and $575,000 in 2018, a difference of 6.1 percent; City of San Diego -- $750,000 in 2019 and $695,000 in 2018, a 7.9 percent difference.

In December in Chula Vista, there were 105 active listings, a decrease of 58.3 percent from last year, and 24.8 percent of those active listings featured reduced prices.

Wei also mentioned December’s monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. With prices rising faster in recent months while supply continued to shrink, home sellers’ optimism improved both month-over-month and year-over-year. The poll revealed that slightly more than half (56 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, up from 51 percent a month ago, and up from 48 percent a year ago. Many buyers, however, remain uncertain about the current housing market conditions as only one-quarter of respondents (25 percent) believe that it is a good time to buy now, slightly higher percentage than last year (22 percent), when interest rates were nearly more than 100 basis points higher.

Wei’s presentation can be found at www.car.org/marketdata.

Wei contributes frequently to C.A.R.’s market analysis articles, Housing Matters Podcast and Housing Perspective. He has written about housing supply, distressed sales, housing tax policy, housing affordability, and many other topics relevant to the real estate industry.

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