PSAR Plans to protest proposal to hike property taxes with sewer bill.

The El Cajon City Council is attempting to add sewer charges to homeowners’ semi-annual property tax bills. The City Council is scheduled to discuss this proposal at their next meeting, located at 200 Civic Center Way, El Cajon, 92020, on Tuesday, March 10 at 3:00 pm.

PSAR encourages you to advise your El Cajon clients who own property (residential, commercial, industrial) to send a protest letter to the El Cajon City Clerk before 2:00 pm Tuesday, March 10, in protest of adding sewer charges to their property tax bills.

This may seem at first to be an innocent action by elected officials. However, in reality, adding sewer charges to property taxes would have a far-reaching impact to individual homebuyers and for the city of El Cajon overall.

If these additions are approved, future homebuyers would need more money to qualify for a mortgage. The reason is because higher property taxes always result in lower borrowing ability. Another negative effect would be lower housing values, including lost equity, because a higher property tax bill will shrink a homebuyer’s available pool of money available to purchase a home. 

The bottom line is that anytime a property tax bill increases,  the higher amount  adversely affects the local real estate industry. Adding sewer charges to property taxes will reduce the buying power of homebuyers. 

Here are some numbers to consider: 

For a typical $400,000 home, purchased with 20 percent down and an 80 percent, 30-year mortgage loan at 5.5 percent, the monthly mortgage payment is approximately $1,817, insurance is $67 (based on $800/year) and property taxes are $367 (based on 1.1 percent of assessed value) for a total monthly payment of $2,251. However, if a sewer charge of $45 (based on property taxes of $540/year) were to be added, the total monthly mortgage payment for the same home would increase from $2,251 to $2,296. Sewer charges are calculated based on water use at each property. 

Furthermore, with a 40 percent minimum qualifying income, the homebuyer would need an annual income of $68,880 instead of $67,530 without the sewer bill added to their property taxes. That translates to a 2 percent higher income needed to qualify for the same loan. A homebuyer’s purchasing power is reduced by $8,000 when  an increased average sewer charge is added to the property tax bill. 

There are many issues and questions with which residents should be concerned. Seniors and individuals on a fixed income will be hit by a large bill at the end of the year. What considerations have been made for these individuals? Who will ratepayers go to when there is an error on the sewer bill if those charges are added to the annual tax payment? Although billing through the tax roll may be slightly less expensive each month, an incorrect bill can be much more impactful. The city intends to defer income from sewer ratepayers until the end of the year. How is that money financed? Isn’t it better for the city to collect this money upfront rather than waiting until the end of the year to bill? How much will this cost taxpayers?

This is not the first time the El Cajon City Council has attempted this action. In July 2013, a proposal to add sewer charges to property tax bills was flushed down the proverbial toilet. Municipalities are attracted to pass-through wastewater sewer costs coupled with property taxes because it saves the city time and money in mailing and administrative processing costs. It also allows for an easier way for cities to earmark construction costs for necessary sewer line repairs. In El Cajon, the city maintains nearly 200 miles of underground pipeline, with the majority of piping constructed before 1965. Many lines date back to the 1920’s. 

Last year, El Cajon approved higher sewer rates over the next five years. A typical customer paying $48.31 each month for sewer services will see his or her bill increase to $55.09 in 2020, $61.22 in 2021, $69.70 in 2022, $77.35 in 2023 and $88.76 in 2024. The city’s 17,000 residential customers haven’t seen a rate increase since 2011. Before then, the last adjustment to sewer rates in El Cajon was in 1999. Wastewater in El Cajon is piped to San Diego’s Point Loma treatment plant where it is treated and then released into the ocean.

The El Cajon City Council meeting on Tuesday, March 10 will begin at 3:00 p.m. at El Cajon City Hall, 200 Civic Center Way, El Cajon. The city council meeting is open to the public. PSAR members are encouraged to attend. Oral objections and/or protests may be made at the public hearing.

You are also encouraged to send an e-mail to the City of El Cajon stating your opposition. In your e-mail, refer to the “Sewer Billing System Change to the Property Tax Roll.” Protest emails must be sent prior to 2:00 p.m. on March 10. Any written objection or protest must include your name, Assessor Parcel Number (APN), sewer service address and a statement indicating your opposition to the placement of the sewer charges on the property tax bill. Protest emails can be sent to the City Clerk Angela Cortez at cityclerk@cityofelcajon.us,  or the City Manager Graham Mitchell at gmitchell@cityofelcajon.us.

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January’s home sales were down by 19% from December 2019.

San Diego County’s housing market started this year with a 14.6 percent increase in existing home sales for January 2020, compared to January 2019, according to recent statistics from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). However, January’s home sales were down by 19 percent from December 2019.

The median sales price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County in January 2020 was $660,000, a slight $5,000 increase from the $655,000 figure for December 2019. In January 2019, the median sales price in San Diego was $610,000, a decline of 8.2 percent from January 2020.

Statewide, in January, mortgage interest rates, which were at near or record lows, continued to sustain California home sales, while statewide home prices pulled back from one of the highest levels recorded last year.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 395,550 in January 2020, down 0.7 percent from the 398,370 level in December 2019 and up 10.3 percent from January 2019, when 358,540 homes sold. January was the second straight month for sales below the 400,000 benchmark.

January 2020’s statewide median home price was $575,160, down 6.5 percent from December 2019’s price of $614,880, and up 7.1 percent from January 2019’s price of $536,830.

January’s median price drop, the largest in the last seven years, was largely due to a change in the mix of sales with lower-priced properties making up a bigger share of the market, coupled with a seasonal slowdown. January marked the fourth straight month that the median price registered year over year growth of 6 percent or higher. 

January 2020 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

“The strong sales momentum that we saw in the second half of last year carried over into the new year, thanks to favorable homebuying conditions,” said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. “And while home sales were up double-digits from a year ago, it’s important to remember that current sales are being compared to a market that one year ago was at its lowest level in 10 years as economic uncertainties clouded the market outlook while the government shutdown delayed escrow closings.”

“With interest rates on a declining trend again due to concerns about the impact of the coronavirus, motivated buyers will have an opportunity to stretch their purchasing power in the housing market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The economic outlook, however, is less clear than a month ago before the outbreak of the disease, and we should expect market uncertainties to continue to linger on for the short term.”

With prices rising faster in recent months as housing inventory continued to shrink, consumer optimism rose both month-over-month and year-over-year based on those who believe it is a good time to sell a home. According to a monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. in January, 62 percent said it is a good time to sell, up from 56 percent a month ago, and up from 50 percent a year ago.

The same motivating factors, however, may have curbed the optimism for homebuying as only 23 percent of the consumers who responded  to the poll believe that now is a good time to buy a home, slightly less than last year (25 percent), when interest rates were 84 basis points higher.

Other key points from the January 2020 resale housing report include:

-- The available supply of homes for sale in the state inched up slightly after reaching an 80-month record low in December but declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month.

-- Housing inventory continued to dwindle, with active listings declining 26.9 percent in January following a 25.9 percent dip in December.  The January drop was the largest since April 2013.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home devreased from a year ago, to 38 days in January 2019 to 31 days in January 2020. That compares to 28 days in December 2019, 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

-- In San Diego County, the median number of days an existing, single-family home remained unsold on the market was 23 days in January 2020, which compares to 20 days in December 2019 and 28 days in January 2019. In other months, the number-of-days figure was 17 days in November 2019, 18 days in October 2019, 18 days in September 2019, 17 days in August 2019, 15 days in July 2019, 13 days in June 2019, 14 days in May 2019, 17 days in April 2019, 19 days in March 2019 and 22 days in February 2019.

-- The sizable drop in active listings, together with the surge in sales, resulted in a decline in Unsold Inventory Index (UII) to 3.4 months from 4.6 months a year ago. On a month-to-month basis, supply climbed 1.6 percent from the prior month but was lower than the average December-to-January increase of 2.8 percent, based on data going back to 2008. 

The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.62 percent in January, down from 4.46 percent in January 2019, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 3.33 percent, compared to 3.91 percent in January 2019.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

-- After a slow start to the year, San Diego County home prices finished 2019 on a high note. Prices in the San Diego metropolitan area jumped more than any other West Coast market in December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. San Diego metro’s price gain was 4.7 percent, ahead of the national average of 3.8 percent. America’s Finest City ranked fourth in the 20-city index for annual price gains, its highest showing since November 2017.

-- San Diego County’s median home price opened the year at $585,000, up slightly from the previous month. Home prices in January were up 7.9 percent annually, said CoreLogic. The median was down from the peak reached in November 2019 of $594,909. The same factors that have pushed up national and local home prices the past few months, including a shrinking number of homes for sale, low interest rates and job demand, are expected to continue to put upward pressure on prices.

-- San Diego County's housing inventory plummeted 34 percent year-over-year in January, marking the third most precipitous decline in the U.S., according to a new Realtor.com report. San Diego's drop was exceeded only by San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (37.3 percent) and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (35.4 percent). Nationally, housing inventory declined 13.6 percent from January 2019, the steepest year-over-year decrease in more than four years. It pushed the supply of “for sale” homes in the U.S. to its lowest level since Realtor.com began tracking the data in 2012.

January 2020 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- San Diego County was the fourth least affordable housing market in the U.S. last year, according to a First American Financial Corp. survey that concluded the least affordable markets were along the California coast. The survey found San Jose was the nation's least affordable market when comparing median income to sales price. San Jose’s median household income of $128,570 was sufficient to purchase an $806,600 home, but the median price for a single-family home in the city was over $1.03 million in 2019. San Francisco was the second least affordable with a median household income of $114,763 and a median priced home of $945,547. San Diego’s median household income of $81,274 in 2019 was sufficient to purchase a $509,883 home, but the median price of a single-family home in the county was $564,813.

-- 90 percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, reflecting a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88 percent recorded in 2003.These results are from Gallup's Mood of the Nation poll, conducted in January, which also recorded a 20-year high in Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy. The percentage of Americans who report being satisfied with their personal life close to the 86 percent who said in December that they were very or fairly happy.

-- U.S. employers added 225,000 jobs in January, a higher number than expected. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, at 3.6 percent. Wages increased 3.1 percent from the previous year; wages have grown at an average pace of 3 percent for the last 18 months. Also, the “labor-force participation rate,” meaning the percentage of Americans seeking employment, also increased.

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29% OF SAN DIEGO HOUSEHOLDS CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

Slightly higher mortgage interest rates offset steady home prices and held California housing affordability constant during the 2019 fourth quarter, compared to the previous third quarter of the year. Fortunately, more Californians can afford a home purchase now, as compared to a year ago.

The percentage of home buyers who could afford to pay the $607,040 price for an existing, median-priced, single-family home in California in the fourth quarter 2019 was 31 percent, which was unchanged from the third quarter of 2019, but was up from 28 percent in the fourth quarter a year ago, according to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The statewide housing affordability index hit a peak of 56 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The index is considered a fundamental measure of housing well-being for homebuyers in the state. Housing affordability is still the main reason for out-migration. Housing affordability is a much bigger problem for first-time buyers, with 49 percent of first-time buyers changing their county residency over affordability issues. The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve, prices to stabilize and/or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.

In San Diego County, 29 percent of local households could afford to purchase the $655,000 existing, median-priced home in the 2019 fourth quarter, up from 24 percent in the 2018 fourth quarter, but unchanged from the 2019 third quarter.

On a statewide basis, to qualify to purchase an existing, median-priced, single-family home of $607,040 in the 2019 fourth quarter, a household would need a minimum annual income of $119,600 to make the necessary monthly payments of $2,990.

In San Diego County, to qualify to purchase an existing, median-priced, single-family home of $655,000 in the 2019 fourth quarter, a minimum annual household income of $128,800 would be needed to make monthly payments of $3,220.

The monthly payments, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, assume a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 3.89 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 3.85 percent in third-quarter 2019 and 4.95 percent a year ago.

The affordability index for condominiums and townhomes also improved in the 2019 fourth quarter from a year ago but showed a decline compared to the 2019 third quarter because of higher median condominium prices. Forty-one percent of California households earned the minimum income to qualify for the purchase of a $480,000 median-priced condominium or townhome, down from 43 percent in the previous quarter. An annual income of $94,400 was required to make monthly payments of $2,360. Thirty-seven percent of households could afford to buy a condominium or townhome a year ago.

Compared with California, more than half of the nation’s households (57 percent) could afford to purchase a $274,900 median-priced home, requiring a minimum annual income of $54,000 to make monthly payments of $1,350.

Key points from the fourth-quarter 2019 Housing Affordability report include:

• Compared to a year ago, housing affordability improved in 44 tracked counties and declined in four counties.

• Affordability improved in all Southern California regions, with Orange County being the least affordable (26 percent) and San Bernardino County being the most affordable (51 percent).

• During the fourth quarter of 2019, the most affordable counties in California were Lassen (63 percent), Kings (55 percent), Tulare and Plumas (52 percent each). The minimum annual income needed to qualify for a home in these counties was less than $54,000.

•  San Francisco (18 percent), San Mateo (20 percent) and Santa Cruz (21 percent) counties were the least affordable areas in the state. San Francisco County required the highest minimum qualifying income in the entire state. An annual income of $314,800 was needed to purchase a home in San Francisco County. San Mateo County also required an annual income exceeding $300,000 to purchase a median-priced home.

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PSAR is endorsing two San Diego County Board of Supervisor candidates for the March 3 primary election.

The Supervisor candidates are Rafael Castellanos, a San Diego Port Commissioner, for the District 1 seat, and Joel Anderson, a former State Assemblyman and State Senator, for the District 2 seat. Both seats are open due to term limits for the incumbents. A number of other candidates are in the races for County Supervisor seats. The top two vote-getters in the primary election from each District will advance to a November runoff.

PSAR members completed research on the two candidates’ voting records and their public comments relating to preserving and protecting property rights, supporting public policies and initiatives that promote participation in the American dream of homeownership and property investment, and strengthening the ability of Americans to own, buy and sell real property. The endorsements were approved by members of the PSAR Government Affairs Committee and Board of Directors.

Castellanos is hoping to succeed Greg Cox, who was appointed in 1995, replacing Brian Bilbray, was elected to the House of Representatives. Cox is termed out after six terms. The First Supervisorial District includes the cities of Coronado, Imperial Beach, Chula Vista, National City and communities within Southeast San Diego, Point Loma, Sunset Cliffs and parts of downtown San Diego. The district also includes the unincorporated communities of Bonita, Sunnyside, Lincoln Acres and East Otay Mesa.

In addition to PSAR’s endorsement, Castellanos, a Democrat, has been endorsed by the Sierra Club, United Domestic Workers, Chula Vista Police Officers Association, San Diego County Democrats for Environmental Action, Longshore Workers Union (ILWU Local 29), San Diego Harbor Police Officers Association, La Raza Lawyers Association, Chula Vista Democratic Club, Deputy Sheriffs’ Association of San Diego County, San Diegans Against Crime, San Diego Deputy District Attorneys Association, San Diego County Probation Officers Association, National Electrical Contractors Association and Filipino-American Chamber of Commerce of San Diego.

Elected officials who endorse Castellanos include Chula Vista Mayor Mary Salas, Imperial Beach Mayor Serge Dedina,  Lemon Grove Mayor Racquel Vasquez, Chula Vista City Council member Jill Galvez, Chula Vista Port Commissioner Ann Moore, National City Council member Mona Rios, Chula Vista Elementary School District board member Francisco Tamayo and San Diego Unified School District board member Dr. Michael McQuary, along with Imperial Beach City Council members Paloma Aguirre, Ed Spriggs and Mark West.

At the Port of San Diego, Castellanos led the charge to pass the Port’s landmark Climate Action Plan, which resulted in accomplishing the biggest clean-up in the history of San Diego Bay. Castellanos led the Port of San Diego in tackling the homeless crisis, creating the policy and securing the funding to help relocate the homeless from the waterfront into treatment and housing. Castellanos has also led the expansion of the port of San Diego, which has created good paying jobs in the maritime industry while using renewable energy.

As an attorney, Castellanos has worked as general counsel to small businesses, helping them grow, succeed and create jobs. He has protected the rights of immigrants, refugees, and political asylum seekers, and helped generate more affordable housing in San Diego.  

Active in the community, Castellanos serves on the Board of Directors of the California Latino Economic Institute and is a member of the Mexican American Business and Professional Association and the San Diego Foundation’s forum on Climate Change.

Castellanos lists the major issues facing District 1 residents as jobs, housing affordability, environment and defending the rights of all San Diegans.

“I’m running to stand up for South Bay,” said Castelllanos. “I’m running to build a brighter economic future for South Bay families and ensure all our communities are treated with the dignity and respect they deserve. Unlike the usual crowd of political operatives and career politicians, I’ve actually gotten things done in the real world. At the Port of San Diego, I led the fight to clean up San Diego Bay. As an attorney, I’ve helped small businesses create jobs and protected the rights of immigrants. As your County Supervisor, I’ll put my proven record to work to create good jobs for working people, expand affordable housing for local families, protect clean air and clean water for all and defend the rights of all San Diegans.”

Castellanos’ campaign website is www.rafacastellanos.com

The District 2 seat is open for the first time in 28 years. Republican Dianne Jacob, first elected as Supervisor in 1992, is termed out after seven terms.

Anderson, a Republican, previously served for 12 years on a statewide level in the California State Assembly (2006-2010) and the California State Senate (2010-2018). He is known as an advocate for small business and a fiscal conservative.

In addition to PSAR’s endorsement, Anderson has been endorsed by former California Gov. Pete Wilson, State Senator Brian W. Jones (R-38th), the Republican Party of San Diego County and more than 40 elected officials from the East County.

The Second Supervisorial District, the largest of the county’s five districts, features more than 2,000 square miles and more than 50 communities and cities in the East County, including the unincorporated communities of Lakeside, Alpine, Ramona and Julian along with the cities of El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, Santee and Poway, as well as the city of San Diego communities of Allied Gardens, College Area, Del Cerro, Grantville, Navajo, Rolando and San Carlos.

Anderson lists the major issues facing District 2 residents as roads, housing attainability, homelessness, mental health and career opportunities.

“I will work to improve our roads, support attainable housing and promote career opportunities,” Anderson said. “I believe our children and grandchildren deserve the same benefits we enjoyed growing up in San Diego County. If our family members can find housing and work, maybe we won't have to travel to Phoenix to visit our grandchildren.”

According to Anderson, “The County needs to do more to address the regional homeless crisis which is impacting business, tourism, safety and quality of life for all residents. I will be a leader in pushing solutions for housing, mental health and homelessness, unshackling our County’s economic engine and protecting private property rights.”

Anderson said his experience in Sacramento will greatly help him as County Supervisor. “County government is the administrative arm of the state government. The County is tasked with implementing State programs like Medi-Cal and CalFresh, as well as state public safety policies and child and senior welfare programs.

“I have over a decade of experience with crafting state policy, and in developing relationships with current legislators and the administration, including state department leaders who county officials must liaise with regularly to ensure effective services for our residents. Additionally, I have authored and coauthored 453 bills with Democrats and maintained positive working relationships with the super majority in Sacramento that can be utilized to bring more resources to San Diego County.” 

District 2 has a Republican majority among registered voters. According to recent registration data, 38 percent of voters are registered as Republicans, 32 percent as Democrats and 30 percent as having no political party affiliation.

In his 2014 reelection to the State Senate, Anderson received 69.7 percent of votes from District 2 voters. In the 2018 general election, when Anderson ran for the Board of Equalization, he received 55.2 percent of votes from District 2 voters, which was 17 points above Republican registration in the district. 

“I’ve always been an outspoken supporter of pro-jobs policies, government reform and lower taxes,” said Anderson. “My voting record in the state legislature shows that I’m a strong fiscal conservative and advocate for an effective, efficient and accountable government.”

As a state legislator, Anderson was honored numerous times by veterans groups, including nine Legislator of the Year awards from the American Legion, Veterans of Foreign Wars, Military Officers Association of America, Vietnam Veterans of America California State Council and Tuskegee Airmen, Inc.

He also was recognized with Legislator of the Year awards from law enforcement groups, including the California State Sheriffs’ Association and San Diego Deputy District Attorney’s Association; Business groups, including the San Diego County Apartment Association and California Small Business Administration; Medical-healthcare groups, including the San Diego Psychiatric Society and California Association of Marriage and Family Therapists; Recreational groups, including Sportsmen’s and Animal Owners’ Voting Alliance, California Rifle & Pistol Association and California League of Off-Road Voters.

Anderson’s campaign website is www.andersonforsupervisor2020.com.

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Wei is the Senior Economist and the Director of Research for C.A.R. He analyzes housing market conditions, consumer behavior, and public policy issues. He utilizes transactional data and survey research studies conducted by C.A.R. He assumes the managerial responsibility of data mining and analyzing housing market statistics that are released to the public on a periodic basis.

Wei told PSAR members to expect slow growth for the California housing market in 2020, but a recession is not expected this year. He also said rates will remain low this year, possibly 4 percent or lower, and sales will improve as low rates continue to provide support. But, Wei said, the supply shortage has gotten worse, which means lack of inventory will put pressure on price growth.

“There are a number of economic uncertainties that could put a drag on both the California market and the state’s housing market,” Wei said. He listed the uncertainties as stock market correction, Brexit, global economic slowdown, coronavirus outbreak, Federal Reserve decisions, trade conflicts and the presidential election. He said consumer confidence in January 2020 was at 131.6, the highest point since August 2019, but that American business leaders remain concerned about the current environment.

Wei said the economic fundamentals are solid for now. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis in the 2019 4th quarter, GPD was 2.1% and consumption was at 1.8%. In December 2019, the CPI was 2.3%, the unemployment rate was 3.5% and job growth was 1.4%. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 145,000 in December. Employers added positions for a record 10th straight year.

Existing single-family home sales in California for December 2019 were up 7.4 percent from the prior year, but declined 1.2 percent for the year as a whole from 2018. Tight housing inventory tamped down the benefits of low interest rates and held back California home sales in 2019. Existing, single-family home sales totaled 398,880 in December 2019 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November 2019. It marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark.

In December, the median single-family home price was $615,090, a 10.3 percent year-over-year increase from $557,740 in December 2018. The statewide median home price for the year as a whole was $592,450, an increase of 4.0 percent from a revised $569,480 figure in 2018. The year-over-year price increase was the largest since May 2014 and the first double-digit price increase in more than five-and-a-half years. 

Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home stood at 28 days in December, which was a 12.5 percent decrease from 32 days in December 2018. The December number compared to 25 days in November 2019, 24 days in October 2019, 24 days in September 2019, 23 days in August 2019 and 21 days in July 2019.

Wei also noted that a sharp drop in active listings and a surge in year-over-year sales sharply curbed housing inventory in December 2019. The Unsold Inventory Index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was at 2.5 months in December, a drop of 28.6 percent in a year-over-year comparison (3.5 months in December 2018). The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. 

Wei said California cities are still not allowing construction of a sufficient number of new homes. “We’re not building enough housing units in California to keep up with demand,” said Wei. New housing permits totaled 114,370 in 2018, compared to an estimated total of 108,170 in 2019 and a forecast number of 108,620 in 2020.

Wei also offered highlights from C.A.R.’s most recent annual housing market survey and “Housing Affordability Index” (HAI) report, including:

• Housing affordability is still the main reason for out-migration.
• Housing affordability is a much bigger problem for first-time buyers. The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve and prices to stabilize and/or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.
• 49 percent of first-time buyers changed their county residency due to housing affordability. 
• 31 percent of California households could afford to purchase an existing $613,470 median-priced home in the third quarter, which was up from 30 percent in the second quarter of 2019 and 27 percent in the third quarter of 2018.
• In San Diego County, 29 percent of local households could afford to purchase a $645,000 median-priced home in the 2019 third quarter, an improvement from 27 percent in the 2019 second quarter and 23 percent in the third quarter a year ago.
• To qualify to purchase a statewide median-priced, single-family home of $613,470 in the third quarter 2019, a household would need a minimum annual income of $120,400 to make the necessary monthly payments of $3,010.
• In San Diego County, a minimum qualifying annual income of $126,400 would be needed to make the monthly payments of $3,160.

Wei also discussed local market activity. In Chula Vista, 1,533 homes sold in 2019, compared to 1,407 in 2018, an increase of 9.0 percent. In El Cajon, 1,152 homes sold in 2019, compared to 1,133 in 2018, an increase of 1.7 percent. In the city of San Diego, 7,064 homes sold in 2019, compared to 6,774 in 2018, an increase of 4.3 percent.

Wei also shared with attendees the December median home price for the following cities: Chula Vista -- $589,000 in 2019 and $569,500 in 2018, a difference of 3.4 percent; El Cajon -- $539,950 in 2019 and $575,000 in 2018, a difference of 6.1 percent; City of San Diego -- $750,000 in 2019 and $695,000 in 2018, a 7.9 percent difference.

In December in Chula Vista, there were 105 active listings, a decrease of 58.3 percent from last year, and 24.8 percent of those active listings featured reduced prices.

Wei also mentioned December’s monthly Google poll conducted by C.A.R. With prices rising faster in recent months while supply continued to shrink, home sellers’ optimism improved both month-over-month and year-over-year. The poll revealed that slightly more than half (56 percent) believe it is a good time to sell, up from 51 percent a month ago, and up from 48 percent a year ago. Many buyers, however, remain uncertain about the current housing market conditions as only one-quarter of respondents (25 percent) believe that it is a good time to buy now, slightly higher percentage than last year (22 percent), when interest rates were nearly more than 100 basis points higher.

Wei’s presentation can be found at www.car.org/marketdata.

Wei contributes frequently to C.A.R.’s market analysis articles, Housing Matters Podcast and Housing Perspective. He has written about housing supply, distressed sales, housing tax policy, housing affordability, and many other topics relevant to the real estate industry.

To Download the Slide Deck from the Presentation Click Here

Thank you San Diego Congress Members Juan Vargas, Scott Peters, Susan Davis and Mike Levin for your vote today as the House passed H.R. 5377, a bill that temporarily eliminates the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions for 2020 and 2021. The Restoring Tax Fairness for States and Localities Act would also increase the cap to $20,000 for married couples for 2019.

C.A.R. President President Jeanne Radsick stated "We are pleased that the House has passed a bill to temporarily eliminate the cap on the amount of state and local tax that taxpayers can deduct on their federal tax returns. The combined hit of a reduction in the mortgage interest deduction and current $10,000 SALT cap in the tax law has disproportionately hurt taxpayers and real estate in California," 

"Ensuring the tax code incentivizes housing and real estate will continue to be a top priority for REALTORS^®, and C.A.R. thanks the many California Congressional members who support easing the double taxation penalty that harms California homeowners."

The bill moves on to the senate where it will face stiff opposition.