California’s housing market in May 2022 started showing signs of shifting to a more balanced market due to mortgage rates surpassing 5 percent for the first time since April 2010, leading to the lowest sales level since June 2020 and the largest year-over-year decline in five months.

The latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) also showed San Diego County’s home sales dropping 13.9 percent in May 2022, compared to May 2021, and a 4.6 percent decline from April 2022.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 377,790 in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Statewide, May 2022’s sales pace was down 9.8 percent on a monthly basis compared to 419,040 in April 2022 and down 15.2 percent from May 2021, when 445,660 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Home sales dipped below the 400,000 level for the first time since June 2020.

While public health concerns and market uncertainty were the triggering factors that resulted in the sales decline two years ago, tight supply and the higher cost of borrowing is believed to be responsible for the near double-digit decline this time around. 

The statewide median home price in May 2022 set another record at $898,980, surpassing the record set in April 2022 of $884,890. The May 2022 price was 1.6 percent higher than the April 2022 median price and 9.9 percent higher than the $818,260 recorded last May 2021.

The higher prices can largely be attributed to the mix of sales with the high-end market, which continues to outperform the more affordable market segments. The share of million-dollar home sales in May 2022 increased for the fourth straight month and reached the highest level on record at 35.3 percent, while home sales priced below $500,000 dipped again in May 2022 and hit the lowest level of all time.

Home prices could be leveling off as the monthly gain in price appears to be moderating. The month-over-month increase of 1.6 percent for the May 2022 median home price was still higher but only slightly above the long run average of 1.1 percent recorded between April 2022 and May 2022 in the last 43 years.

The median price of a single-family home in San Diego declined a mere $5,000, or 0.5 percent, to $970,000 in May 2022 from $975,000 in April 2022. The May 2022 median price was still 14.0 percent higher from the year-ago price of $851,000 in May 2021, marking an increase of nearly $150,000 in one year. The median represents a price where half of the homes sell above and half below.

“We’re beginning to see signs of a more balanced housing market with fewer homes selling above list price and homes remaining on the market a little longer than in previous months,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker, and REALTOR®. “What this tells us is that there is slightly more supply, fewer- and less-intense bidding wars, and those who've experienced ‘buyers' fatigue’ may now have a window of opportunity.” 

“Pending home sales declined 30.6 percent in May, the biggest drop since the first month of the pandemic, likely due to eroding affordability, rising mortgage rates and home prices, and the increased risk of a recession,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “The combined effect of the aforementioned factors resulted in a record increase in the average monthly mortgage payment to a typical home by more than 40 percent in May. With the Fed expected to raise rates further in the second half of the year, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could surge past 6 percent by year's end and lead to more affordability challenges for potential homebuyers.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s May 2022 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, all major regions declined in sales from last year, with four of the five regions falling by double-digits on a year-over-year basis. Compared to the pre-pandemic average calculated using sales from May 2017, May 2018, and May 2019, the Southern California region’s sales were also down 19.8 percent in May 2022.

-- At the regional level, home prices in all major California regions increased in price from last year by more than 10 percent, with the Far North and Southern California setting new record medians in May. The Far North also had the highest year-over-year growth in price with a surge of 16.4 percent, followed by the Central Valley (12.4 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (12.3 percent), Southern California (11.9 percent), and the Central Coast (10.6 percent).

-- California’s unsold inventory of homes improved in May 2022 to 2.1 months, compared to 1.8 months in April 2022, 1.7 months in March 2022, and 1.8 months in May 2021.

-- With both closed sales and pending sales slowing by double-digits, total active listings experienced a gain of 46.7 percent in May 2022, the largest year-over-year growth in at least the last 89 months. Active listings in May 2022 also climbed to the highest level since July 2020 and had a month-to-month increase of 26.4 percent from April 2022.

May 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sale in May 2022 was 1.9 months, compared to 1.6 months in April 2022, 1.4 months in March 2022 and 1.6 months in May 2021. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.

-- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 9 days in May 2022 and 7 days in May 2021.

May 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- In San Diego, the median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in May 2022 was 7 days, which was the same number in April 2022 and May 2021. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- The statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent at 103.4 percent in May 2022, compared to 104.2 percent in April 2022, 103.3 percent in March 2022, and 103.8 percent in May 2021.

Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio of 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 5.23 percent in May, up from 2.96 percent in May 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.06 percent, compared to 2.62 percent in May 2021.

California home sales retreated slightly in April 2022 even as interest rates rose and the statewide median home price set another record, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The statewide median home price in April 2022 was $884,890, up 4.2 percent from the March 2022 price of $849,080 and up 8.7 percent from the April 2021 price of $814,010. The April 2022 statewide median home price set another record, surpassing the previous record set in March 2022.

The year-over-year increase was the smallest since June 2020, but it was strong enough to establish a new peak price for the state. The month-to-month percent change was higher than the long-run average of 2.3 percent recorded between the months of March and April over the last 43 years. 

In San Diego in April 2022, the median home price approached the $1 million mark. The April 2022 median home price was $975,000, a 2.6 percent increase from the $950,000 price in March 2022 and 8.2 percent higher from the year-ago price of $825,120 in April 2021, marking an increase of about $150,000 in one year. The median represents a price where half the homes sell above and half below.

April 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Home sales in April 2022 on a statewide basis were down 1.9 percent compared to March 2022, when 426,970 homes were sold, and down 8.5 percent from a year ago in April 2021, when 458,170 homes were sold on an annual basis.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 419,040 in April 2022, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the April pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The month-to-month April sales decline is in line with the long-run change of minus 1.6 percent recorded between March and April. However, the annual statewide sales drop between April 2022 and April 2021 was the biggest decline in the past four months. On a year-to-date basis, home sales were down 7.4 percent in April 2022.

In San Diego, home sales in April 2022 were lower in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. San Diego home sales in April 2022 were down 1.3 percent, compared to March 2022, and down 12.6 percent compared to a year ago in April 2021.

“As rates remain on the rise, the sense of urgency to buy is keeping the market highly competitive, especially since housing inventory continues to stay well below pre-pandemic levels,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. “While we will likely see more listings come on to the market as we move further into the home-buying season, the housing shortage issue will likely persist throughout the rest of the year in major metropolitan areas, such as the Bay Area and the Southern California region.” 

“California’s housing market is moderating from the 12-year-high levels experienced in 2021, as higher mortgage interest rates and soaring home prices are starting to have an adverse impact on housing demand,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With April pending home sales recording the worst drop in two years, the affordability challenges that buyers have been encountering are materializing in recent sales trends, and further declines in housing demand could continue in the second half of the year.”

A change in the mix of sales continues to play a role in statewide record-setting home prices as sales in high-priced markets remain stronger than their more affordable counterparts. The share of million-dollar home sales increased for the third consecutive month, reaching the highest level on record at 34.7 percent.

Meanwhile, home sales priced below $500,000 dipped again in April and hit the lowest level ever. Sales dropped by double-digits for price segments $750,000 and below, while sales above $2 million remained on the rise on a year-over-year basis. The shift in the mix of sales toward high-end homes is expected to persist in the upcoming months. 

Other key points from C.A.R.’s April 2022 resale housing report included:

-- At the regional level, home sales in all major California regions declined from a year ago, with three of the five regions falling by double-digits on a year-over-year basis. The San Francisco Bay Area (-18.1 percent) and Southern California (-16.0 percent) were two major regions with sales declines exceeding 10 percent from a year ago.

-- Home prices in all major regions in the state surged from last year by double digits. The San Francisco Bay Area recorded the highest year-over-year price growth with an increase of 15.9 percent, followed by the Central Valley (14.9 percent), the Central Coast (13.4 percent) and Southern California (11.7 percent).

-- At the county level, home prices continued to rise across the state, with 26 counties in California setting new record median highs in April 2022.

-- California’s unsold inventory of homes improved slightly in April 2022 at 1.8 months, compared to 1.7 months in March 2022 and 1.6 months in April 2021. The number of active listings surged more than 20 percent on a year-over-year basis and recorded the highest yearly growth in properties for sale since January 2019. Active listings in April climbed to the highest level in seven months.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sales in April 2022 was 1.6 months, compared to 1.4 months in March 2022, 1.5 months in February 2022 and January 2022 and 1.5 months in April 2021. Inventory levels from previous months in 2021 included: December, 1.0; November, 1.3; October, 1.5; September, 1.6; August, 1.7; July, 1.7. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

April 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- The median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in April 2022 was 7 days, compared to 7 days in March and February 2022, 9 days in January 2022 and 6 days in April 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: December, 8; November, 9; October, 9; September, 9; August, 8; July, 7; June, 6; May, 7; April, 6. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in April 2022 was 8 days, compared to 8 days in March 2022, 9 days in February 2022, 12 days in January 2022 and 7 days in April 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: December, 12; November, 11; October, 11; September, 10.

-- The statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent at 104.2 percent in April 2022, compared to 103.3 percent in March 2022, 102.6 percent in February 2022 and 103.3 percent in April 2021. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.98 percent in April, up from 3.06 percent in April 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 3.70 percent, compared to 2.81 percent in April 2021.

There is a critical shortage of housing inventory. An excessive amount of red tape helped cause that shortage. Now, the City of Chula Vista is considering additional regulations on Housing Providers.

The proposed "Residential Landlord and Tenant Provisions" will impose the following:

• Regulations that make substantial remodels, owner move-ins, and withdrawal from the rental market more difficult by adding stricter noticing requirements and relocation assistance requirements.
• The creation of laws that allows for civil action and damages of $1,000-5,000 per violation per day.
• The criminalization of any violation of the ordinance and the creation of fines in the thousands of dollars.

Mayor Mary Salas requested the creation of this ordinance in response to calls from tenant and rent control advocates. Unfortunately, the unintended consequences of this ordinance would end up harming tenants as well.

The unintended consequences of this ordinance will include the following:

• The added difficulties of being a housing provider in Chula Vista will discourage the creation of much needed additional housing. This will hurt all of us, including those who would have a much harder time finding a place to rent. 
• The added difficulties of undertaking substantial renovations would deter owners from upgrading unsightly buildings. This hurts the tenants who would live there and the livability of the surrounding communities. 
• Provisions in the ordinance meant to prevent harassment of tenants would actually deter property owners from dealing with tenants who cause nuisances. This would hurt the tenants and all neighbors who live nearby and would have to deal with the nuisances.

It is well established that when you add regulation to something, you get less of it. We need more housing, not less. The State of California has recently enacted protections for tenants by enacting AB 1482. If there are problems for tenants, the City could focus on finding better ways to enforce existing laws, rather than adding more regulations that will negatively impact our already scarce housing supply.

Please send an eComment to the City stating your opposition to this misguided ordinance by clicking on the button below, and then clicking on the "Leave Comment" button:

_______________________________________________________________________________

Not sure which Councilmember represents your neighborhood?  See below.

Questions remain about the City of San Diego’s pending ‘No-Fault Eviction' Moratorium.

On April 4th, after almost six hours of public testimony which included comments from PSAR volunteers and members, the city council passed the ‘No-Fault Eviction' Moratorium ordinance. The ordinance must come back for a second reading a month after the first reading and will go into effect 30 days after final approval.

Thanks to the efforts of PSAR and our colleagues, the original ordinance was amended to include an end date or sunset on September 30, 2022 (or 60 days after the end of the local emergency) whichever is sooner.  Realtors are wondering about how this ordinance will impact property owners who want to sell.

• No termination of tenancy is allowed for a substantial remodel unless mandated by the government or court order.
• Owners who wish to move into their homes or move in family members will have to serve a 90-day notice to terminate the tenancy. An immediate family member is limited to a parent, child, grandparent, and grandchild.

Property owners who wish to terminate a tenancy in order to withdraw units from the rental market, this includes selling a home, must provide a 6-month notice.

The ordinance is likely to receive final approval next month and it will cause unintended consequences. Additionally, some of the language is vague and confusing. Once the ordinance is finalized, PSAR will schedule legal counsel to brief our members on its impact. PSAR will continue to review the ordinance and is prepared to challenge it again at the second reading.

Before working with a client to terminate a tenancy, it is important to speak with your broker and legal counsel. This ordinance will put many owners in difficult positions.

A copy of the proposed ordinance may be found here.

This web page item #200 has links to the PowerPoint and backup information for a deeper dive.

Housing demand in California remained strong in March 2022 as home sales ticked higher and the statewide median price set another all-time high, primarily due to a surge in sales of higher-priced homes. However, the effects of rising interest rates have yet to be borne out, according to the latest home sales and price report released on April 19 by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The number of closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate totaled 426,970 in March 2022, which was up 0.5 percent from the February 2022 total of 424,460, and down 4.4 percent from March 2021, when 446,410 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

March 2022’s statewide year-over-year sales decrease was the ninth straight decline and the smallest in eight months. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 7.0 percent in March.

The statewide annualized sales figures, collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide, represent what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

In San Diego, home sales in March 2022 were higher in a month-over-month comparison and lower in a year-over-year comparison. San Diego home sales in March 2022 were up 34 percent, compared to February 2022, but were down 2.2 percent compared to March 2021.

March 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Meanwhile, the California median home price rose above the $800,000 benchmark for the first time in six months. California’s median home price reached a new record high in March 2022 at $849,080, surpassing the previous record of $827,940 set in August 2021.

The March 2022 price was 11.9 percent higher than the $758,990 posted in March 2021. The month-to-month percent change in median price was the highest pace since March 2013. The 10.1 percent month-to-month increase in March 2022 from the February 2022 price of $771,270 was the first time in nine years that the monthly price increase reached double-digits.

A surge in sales at the top end of the market was the primary factor for the jump in the statewide median price at the end of the 2022 first quarter. The share of million-dollar home sales increased for the second consecutive month, surging to 32.9 percent in March 2022, the highest level on record.

Additionally, strong month-to-month sales growth in the San Francisco Bay area contributed to the jump in sales of million-dollar homes statewide, as 70 percent of the region’s sales were priced above $1 million, and sales in the region increased 70.5 percent from February 2022. 

Home prices are expected to edge higher as the market continues in the spring homebuying season over the next few months.

In San Diego in March 2022, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home was $950,000, a 7.0 percent increase from the $888,000 price in February 2022. The March 2022 median price also was 18.8 percent higher than a year ago at $800,000 in March 2021, marking an increase of $150,000 in one year.

“With homes still selling at a rapid clip and more homes selling above asking price than last summer when prices were at record highs, California’s housing market continues to perform remarkably well as buyers enter the market to get ahead of rising mortgage interest rates,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker, and REALTOR®. “An increase in active listings for the first time since prior to the pandemic should give consumers more options and alleviate some of the upward pressure on home prices, which bodes well for prospective buyers.”

“March sales data continues to suggest strong buying interest and a solid housing market, as the effects of higher mortgage interest rates won’t be realized for a few more months,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With the Federal Reserve expected to announce two back-to-back half-point interest rate hikes in May and June to combat inflation, interest rates will be elevated for the foreseeable future, adversely affecting housing demand and lowering housing affordability in the coming months, but the effects may not be visible until the second half of the year as many of the homes that are, or will be, the closing was negotiated before the sharp increase in rates.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s March 2022 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, all major regions except the Central Valley recorded a decrease in sales on a year-over-year basis. The Central Coast region recorded the sharpest sales decline of all regions again, dropping 20.1 percent from a year ago. The Far North had the second-largest sales decline at 7.7 percent, followed by Southern California (-7.5 percent) and the San Francisco Bay Area (-2.7 percent). Sales in the Central Valley increased for the second straight month with a year-over-year increase of 2.8 percent.

-- Home prices in all major regions in the state continued to surge from last year by double-digits, with four of them reaching a new record high in March. The Central Coast region recorded the highest year-over-year price growth with a 20.4 percent increase, followed by the Central Valley (19.3 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (17.9 percent), and Southern California (13.8 percent), and the Far North (12.9 percent).

-- At the county level, home prices continued to increase across the state, with 25 counties setting new record highs in March. Forty-six out of fifty-one counties tracked by C.A.R. experienced increases in their median prices in March, with 38 of them rising more than 10 percent from a year ago.

-- California’s unsold inventory of homes in March 2022 remained unchanged from a year ago at 1.7 months, marking the first time in nearly two years the index did not decline on a year-over-year basis.  Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.

March 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sales in March 2022 was 1.4 months, compared to 1.5 months in February 2022, January 2022, and March 2021. Inventory levels from previous months in 2021 included: December, 1.0; November, 1.3; October, 1.5; September, 1.6; August, 1.7; July, 1.7.

-- The median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in March 2022 was 7 days, compared to 7 days in February 2022, 9 days in January 2022, and 6 days in March 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: December, 8; November, 9; October, 9; September, 9; August, 8; July, 7; June, 6; May, 7; April, 6. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in March 2022 was 8 days, compared to 9 days in February 2022, 12 days in January 2022, and 8 days in March 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: December, 12; November, 11; October, 11; September, 10.

-- The statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent at 103.9 percent in March 2022, 102.6 percent in February 2022, and 102.2 percent in March 2021. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio of 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.17 percent in March, up from 3.08 percent in March 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 3.19 percent, compared to 2.78 percent in March 2021.

California’s housing market continued to maintain a solid sales pace in February 2022, despite higher interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Russia-NATO conflict in Ukraine, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The number of homes sold statewide in February was lower than last year’s unusually strong market. The number of closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate totaled 424,640 in February 2022, which was down 4.5 percent from January 2022, when 444,540 homes were sold on an annualized basis, and down 8.2 percent from February 2021, when 462,720 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

The year-over-year sales decrease between February 2022 and February 2021 was the eighth straight decline and the smallest in seven months. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 8.3 percent in February 2022.

The statewide annualized sales figure, collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide, represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the February pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

In San Diego, home sales in February 2022 were higher in a month-over-month comparison and lower in a year-over-year comparison. San Diego home sales in February 2022 were up 7.3 percent, compared to January 2022, but were down 5.6 percent lower compared to February 2021.

February 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Meanwhile, the California median home price was below the $800,000 benchmark for the fifth straight month, although home prices are continuing to increase from the prior year and pick up momentum.

The statewide median price inched up to $771,270 in February 2022, up 0.7 percent from $765,610 in January 2022, and up 10.3 percent from the $699,000 recorded in February 2021.

The stronger-than-expected growth in the statewide median price is attributed partly to a change in the mix of sales toward homes in the million-dollar price range, as sales jumped in higher-priced regions, including the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Prices are expected to edge higher as the market moves into the spring homebuying season over the next few months.

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home was $888,000 in February 2022, a 1.5 percent increase compared to the $875,000 price in January 2022. The February median price was 16.1 percent higher than a year ago at $765,000 in February 2021, marking an increase of $110,000 in one year.

February 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

“Despite higher mortgage rates, California’s housing market is holding up remarkably strong, with home prices reaccelerating, market competition growing, and signs that the listings crunch is thawing,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker, and REALTOR®. “Prospective buyers are taking advantage of still-low rates before they move higher and getting a jump on the competition before the start of the spring homebuying season.”

“While home sales declined from both the previous month and year, February’s sales pace was still the second-highest sales level for a February in the last 10 years and strong relative to pre-pandemic levels of 2018 and 2019,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “However, the invasion of Ukraine has created geopolitical headwinds and pushed up inflation a notch, which may keep mortgage rates elevated and cause the housing market to retreat amid the uncertainty.”

At an index of 67 in February, C.A.R.’s monthly Consumer Housing Sentiment Index dropped 2 points from last month as consumers acknowledged the current market challenges and felt increasingly pessimistic about home-buying opportunities. Consumers who thought it was a “good time to buy” dropped to 16 percent in February from 19 percent last month and from 28 points last year. Still, one in every four consumers is holding out hope that it will be easier to find a home in the next 12 months while nearly two in every three believe that home prices will rise over the same period of time.

Other key points from C.A.R.’s February 2022 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, all major regions except the Central Valley recorded a decrease in sales on a year-over-year basis, but lower-priced areas continued to fare better than higher-priced areas in the Golden State. The Central Coast region had the sharpest decline of all regions, with sales in February dropping 16.3 percent from a year ago. However, to put things into perspective, housing demand was abnormally strong early last year with sales in February 2021 surging 22.4 percent from the prior year. The San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California also experienced a double-digit or a near double-digit sales loss of 13.7 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively, in February 2022.

-- More than 70 percent of all counties tracked by C.A.R. experienced a dip in existing home sales from a year ago, with 24 counties declining more than 10 percent on a year-over-year basis.

-- Home prices continued to grow in all major regions in the state, with all five posting double-digit year-over-year gains in their median price. The San Francisco Bay Area recorded the highest year-over-year price gain at a 15.9 percent increase, followed by the Central Valley (14.8 percent), Southern California (12.6 percent), the Far North (11.9 percent), and the Central Coast (10.1 percent).

-- Despite slower price growth due to rising mortgage rates, home prices continued to increase across the state, with 24 California counties setting new record high median prices in February 2022.

-- California’s unsold inventory of homes index rose in February 2022 to its highest level in three months. The February 2022 figure was 2.0 months, compared to 1.8 months in January 2022, 1.2 months in December 2021, and 2.1 months in February 2021. The December 2021 figure of 1.2 months was the lowest level on record since CAR began tracking this figure in July 1988. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

-- In San Diego, the inventory of available homes for sales in February 2022 was at 1.5 months, the same figure in January 2022 and 1.8 months in February 2021. Inventory levels from previous months in 2021 included: December, 1.0; November, 1.3; October, 1.5; September, 1.6; August, 1.7; July, 1.7.

-- The median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in February 2022 was 7 days, compared to 9 days in January 2022 and 7 days in February 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: December, 8; November, 9; October, 9; September, 9; August, 8; July, 7; June, 6; May, 7; April, 6. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in February 2022 was 9 days, compared to 12 days in January 2022 and 10 days in February 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: December, 12; November, 11; October, 11; September, 10.

-- The statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent at 102.6 percent in February 2022 and 101.0 percent in February 2021. Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.76 percent in February, up from 2.81 percent in February 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 2.87 percent, compared to 2.83 percent in February 2021.

California’s housing market kicked off the new year in January 2022 with a bounce back from December’s four-month low, as housing demand remained strong, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The number of closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate was up 3.4 percent in January 2022 to 444,450, compared to 429,860 in December. The January 2022 sales pace was down 8.3 percent from a year ago when 484,760 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-over-year sales decrease was the seventh straight decline and the smallest in six months.

The statewide annualized sales figure, collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide, represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

In San Diego, home sales in January 2022 were lower in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. San Diego home sales in January 2022 declined 28.2 percent, compared to December 2021, and were 6.7 percent lower than January 2021.

January 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Meanwhile, the California median home price dipped below the $800,000 benchmark for the fourth straight month as the seasonal slowdown continued. Home prices continued to decelerate as a shift in the mix of sales toward less expensive homes. The statewide median price declined to $765,580 in January, down 3.9 percent from December’s $796,580, and was up 9.4 percent from the $699,920 recorded in January 2021. While January marked the first time since July 2020 that the state did not record a double-digit annual gain in its median price, the statewide median price is expected to edge higher as the market moves into the spring homebuying season in the next few months.

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home was $875,000 in January 2022, a 4.6 percent increase compared to the $836,700 price in December 2021. The January median price was 19.9 percent higher than a year ago at $730,000 in January 2021, more than a $100,000 increase in one year.

“The buoyant housing market continues in 2022 as buyers returned from the holiday season to take advantage of the still favorable lending environment before interest rates climb further,” said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker, and REALTOR®. “With prices leveling off, housing supply showing a slight improvement and competition easing during the off-season, buyers who missed the opportunity to buy were eager to get back to the market at the start of the new year.”

“It’s encouraging to see the market momentum from the last two years being carried forward into 2022 and the economy continuing to recover. January’s sales remained above pre-pandemic levels, and new purchase mortgage applications are still registering strong numbers,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “However, a surge in interest rates in the past few weeks is concerning and will likely create affordability headwinds for buyers, which may result in housing demand being curtailed in the upcoming months.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s January 2022 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, nearly all major regions in California recorded a decrease in sales on a year-over-year basis. The San Francisco Bay Area had the biggest year-over-year sales decline of all regions at -22.3 percent. Central Coast (-20.7 percent) and Southern California (-10.1 percent) also experienced double-digit sales losses in January.

-- Home prices continued to grow in all five major regions in the state, with all five of them recording double-digit annual price increases in January. The Central Valley region had the highest year-over-year price gain with a 17.5 percent increase, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (14.3 percent) and Southern California (13.8 percent).

-- Home prices, in general, continue to rise across the state, with 45 counties showing a year-over-year increase in median price in January.

-- Market competitiveness was less heated than a few months ago but remained elevated in January 2022. Nearly three-fifths of homes (57.3 percent) still sold above the asking price in the latest monthly report but was the lowest level in 11 months. January was the 16th consecutive month since September 2020 that more than half of the homes sold above the asking price.

-- While the statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent, the January 2022 figure was the lowest level since February 2021. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- California’s unsold inventory of homes was 1.8 months in January 2022, compared to 1.2 months in December 2021 and 2.0 months in January 2021. The December 2021 figure of 1.2 months was the lowest level on record since CAR began tracking this figure in July 1988. Active listings statewide were down 24.1 percent from last year. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.

-- The inventory of available homes for sale in San Diego County in January 2022 was 1.5 months, compared to 1 month in December 2021 and 1.9 months in January 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: November, 1.3; October, 1.5; September, 1.6; August, 1.7; July, 1.7.

January 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- The median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in January 2022 was nine days, compared to eight days in December 2021 and nine days in November, October and September 2021. A year ago in January 2021, the number was seven days. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: August, 8; July, 7; June, 6, May, 7; April, 6. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in January 2022 was 12 days, the same number in December 2021. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: November, 11; October, 11; September 10. A year ago in January 2021, the number was seven days.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.45 percent in January, up from 2.74 percent in January 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 2.57 percent, compared to 2.87 percent in January 2021.

The Board of Supervisors will meet on Wednesday, February 9th at 9 am to discuss the implementation of a Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Policy which could end hopes that San Diego will meet the housing needs of its residents.  

Please urge the Board of Supervisors to keep housing a top priority in San Diego County.  

You can submit written comments by clicking here: submit comments.

This proposal is item 7 on the Agenda, if you would be willing to testify on this, you can sign up here:  Sign up to speak

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Recently, PSAR sent a three-page letter to the San Diego County Board of Supervisors expressing our opposition to the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) proposal.  See a copy of the letter by following this link.

VMT is a proposal that would slap new fees on housing development in car-centric communities. The fees would be calculated based on the additional “vehicle miles traveled.” Housing developments in rural or suburban areas would face fees that would disincentivize their construction.  Any homes that do get built would need to factor in those additional fees, pushing the dream of homeownership further beyond the reach of most aspiring buyers.  

Under the proposed VMT, to get approval for a project, a housing developer would have to show that their project would generate fewer vehicle miles traveled than the area’s average. 

PSAR’s letter to the Board of Supervisors states: “Homeownership is the bedrock of building strong communities and intergenerational wealth. REALTORS® know firsthand that buyers are moving to Riverside, Imperial Valley, and Mexico to own a property and build a future. They subsequently commute for hours on San Diego freeways, defeating the intent of the VMT policies.

“There are numerous economic and regulatory barriers that discourage developers from building both attached and detached “for-purchase” housing for all levels of income. If the County is forced to adopt a Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) planning tool that is being considered with a regional planning focus, the cost of new housing in the unincorporated portions of our region will be increased significantly, adding to the current housing shortfall.

“This policy will severely restrict future generations from realizing the dream of homeownership and a better quality of life for themselves and generations to come.”

The letter also states that PSAR is supporting six recommendations from the Building Industry Association (BIA) of San Diego County. BIA’s recommendations include an Infill Area Option, VMT Mitigation Program Options, and a programmatic Environmental Impact Report (EIR) to analyze VMT impacts.

PSAR is opposing VMT implementation because of the potential impacts on historically disadvantaged communities who would find it harder to realize the dream of homeownership.

PSAR’s letter states: “Homeownership is an essential steppingstone for families to build wealth. By adding requirements that will make homeownership opportunities more expensive for working families to purchase, we will be removing a crucial steppingstone for those who have not already had an opportunity to purchase a home. We would essentially be closing the door behind those who have already been fortunate enough to purchase a home.

“Society has been making a lot of strides towards providing historically disadvantaged communities with opportunities that had previously been denied to them. We should not be halting that progress by limiting access to homeownership opportunities. The book `The Color of Law’ by Richard Rothstein provides a very detailed analysis of how unequal access to homeownership due to government policies directly resulted in economic harm that continues to hold back communities of color to this day. Considering the fact that communities of color in San Diego are still suffering from the multigenerational impacts of redlining and segregation, we should not be implementing policies that cement these impacts by stopping the creation of new opportunities for homeownership or confining new housing opportunities for lower-income residents to certain areas.”

At their Jan. 26 meeting, the Board of Supervisors received a report from county planners that laid out ways to implement VMT. The board directed the planners to return on Feb. 9 with additional details on VMT options.

Please urge the Board of Supervisors to keep housing a top priority in San Diego County.  

You can submit written comments by clicking here: submit comments.

This proposal is item 7 on the Agenda, if you would be willing to testify on this, you can sign up here:  Sign up to speak

California home sales and prices eased in December as the state’s housing market posted its best performance in more than a decade, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

The number of closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate was down 5.4 percent in December 2021 to 429,860, compared to 454,450 in November 2021. The December 2021 sales pace was down 15.7 percent from a year ago in December 2020, when 509,750 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

The statewide annualized sales figure, collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide, represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Despite the sixth straight month for a year-over-year sales decrease for the year as a whole, sales of existing statewide homes maintained a 7.9 percent increase from 2020’s pace on a year-over-year basis.

In San Diego, home sales in December 2021 were lower in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. San Diego home sales in December 2021 declined 0.8 percent, compared to November 2021, and were 11.2 percent lower than December 2020.

December 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Meanwhile, the California median home price dipped below the $800,000 benchmark for the third straight month as the seasonal slowdown continued. Despite a deceleration in growth at the end of the year, the statewide median price rose to $796,570 in December, up 1.8 percent from November’s $782,480 and up 11.0 percent from the $717,930 recorded in December 2020.

The double-digit annual price gain was the 17th consecutive month with more than a 10 percent increase since the summer of 2020. The annual increase was also the smallest since July 2020 as the share of high-end homes continued to moderate since July 2021. For the year as a whole, California set a new annual record median price of $786,750, improving 19.3 percent from the prior year.

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego County was $836,700 in December 2021, a drop of 1.3 percent compared to the $847,750 price in November 2021. The December median price was 14.6 percent higher than a year ago at $730,000 in December 2020, roughly a $100,000 increase in one year.

“Despite signs of moderating in the second half of the year, California’s housing market continued to outperform last year’s level and remained competitive even as home prices rose at a double-digit pace — a testament to the imbalance of high demand and not enough homes on the market for sale,” said 2022 C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. “For the year as a whole, the market turned in its best performance in more than a decade, as buyers took advantage of historically low-interest rates and continued to value the benefits of homeownership amid another year of the pandemic.”

“The state’s housing market is expected to perform solidly this year as the economy recovers further and consumers’ desire to buy remains elevated,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “However, with COVID cases surging and inventory constraints remaining an issue, the housing market will see headwinds of ongoing high inflation, which will put pressure on the Fed to raise rates sooner than previously expected. These factors will increase the cost of borrowing and put more affordability burden on potential homebuyers who want to purchase in 2022.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s December 2021 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, all major regions in California recorded a sale decline on a year-over-year basis by more than 10 percent in December 2021. The sales decline for Southern California at the end of 2021 was 10.7 percent on an annual basis.

-- All major regions posted solid home price gains from a year ago, with four of them recording double-digit, year-over-year median price increases. The Far North outpaced the rest of the state with a 16.6 percent year-over-year gain at the end of the year, followed by Southern California (15.4 percent), the Central Valley (13.9 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (13.4 percent), and the Central Coast (9.1 percent).

-- Market competitiveness was less heated than a few months ago but remained elevated in December. Nearly three-fifths of homes (58 percent) sold above the asking price, but that was the lowest level in 10 months. December was the 15th consecutive month since September 2020 that more than half of the homes sold above the asking price.

-- While the statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent, the December number was the lowest level since February 2021. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

-- The inventory of available homes for sale in San Diego County in December 2021 was 1 month, compared to 1.3 months in November 2021 and 1.2 months a year ago in December 2020. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: October, 1.5; September, 1.6; August, 1.7; July, 1.7.

-- Statewide, the unsold inventory of homes was 1.2 months in December 2021, compared to 1.6 months in November 2021 and 1.4 months in December 2020. The December 2021 figure of 1.2 months was the lowest level on record since CAR began tracking this figure in July 1988. Active listings statewide were down 24.1 percent from last year. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell out given the current rate of sales.

December 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- The median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in December 2021 was eight days, compared to nine days in November, October, and September 2021. The eight-day timeframe compares to eight days in August, seven days in July, six days in June 2021, seven days in May 2021, and six days in April 2021. A year ago in December 2020, the number was eight days. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home in December 2021 was at 12 days, compared to 11 days in November and October and 10 days in September 2021. A year ago, in December 2020, the number was 11 days.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.10 percent in December, up from 2.68 percent in December 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 2.43 percent, compared to 2.79 percent in December 2020.

Even with low housing inventory and slightly higher interest rates, California’s housing market continued a strong sales pace in November 2021, while remaining above pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest home sales and price report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes statewide on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate rose 4.7 percent on a monthly basis in November 2021 to 454,450 units, compared to 434,170 in October 2021. The November 2021 sales pace was down 10.7 percent from a year ago in November 2020, when 508,820 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

The statewide annualized sales figure, collected from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide, represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Despite the fifth straight month for a year-over-year sales decrease, statewide home sales maintained a 10.6 percent increase on a year-over-year basis.

In San Diego, home sales were lower in November 2021 in month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons. San Diego home sales in November 2021 declined 6.1 percent compared to October 2021, and 6.6 percent lower than November 2020.

November 2021 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

Meanwhile, the California median home price dipped below the $800,000 benchmark for the second straight month in November 2021 to $782,480, a 2 percent drop from $798,440 in October 2021. The statewide November 2021 median price was 11.9 percent higher than the $698,980 recorded in November 2020. The 2 percent price decline was higher than the 0.1 percent average recorded between October and November in the past 42 years, and it’s consistent with the five-year average logged between 2016 and 2020.

In San Diego, the median sales price for an existing, single-family detached home was $847,750 in November 2021, a 0.3 percent decrease compared to $850,000 in October 2021. The November 2021 median price was 14.6 percent higher than a year ago at $740,000 in November 2020, nearly a $100,000 increase in one year.

“As we move further into the off-peak homebuying season, slowly rising interest rates will motivate savvy buyers to enter the market," said 2022 C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. “With fewer active buyers in the market during the holidays, prospective buyers who may have taken a breather during the heated peak homebuying months can take advantage of this window of opportunity when there’s less competition and more homes to choose from.”

 “California’s winter housing market remains unseasonably resilient, despite market challenges of a lack of inventory, modest interest rate increases, and ongoing affordability issues,” C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine said. “While we believe the market will continue to do well in 2022 as the economy further recovers, a widening imbalance between supply and demand will put upward pressure on prices and create headwinds for housing affordability that could slow sales in the upcoming year.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2021 resale housing report include:

-- At the regional level, four of the five major regions recorded a sales decline in a year-over-year comparison in November 2021.

-- Nearly two-thirds of all counties (32 of 51) had a year-over-year decrease in closed sales in November, with 16 counties declining by more than 10 percent from a year ago.

-- All major regions posted solid home price gains from a year ago, with four of them recording double-digit, year-over-year median price increases. The San Francisco Bay Area (18.2 percent) had the largest increase of all regions, followed by Southern California (14.0 percent).

-- Market competitiveness was less heated than a few months ago but remained elevated in November. Nearly two-thirds of homes (59.2 percent) sold above the asking price, but that was the lowest level in nine months. November was the 14th consecutive month since September 2020 that more than half of the homes sold above the asking price.

-- While the statewide median sales-price-to-list-price ratio remained above 100 percent, November’s number was the lowest level since March 2021. The sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and sellers under current market conditions. The ratio, expressed as a percentage, is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

November 2021 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

-- The inventory of available homes for sale in San Diego County in November 2021 was 1.3 months, compared to 1.5 months in October 2121 and 1.6 months a year ago in November 2020. Numbers from previous months in 2021 included: September, 1.6; August, 1.7; July, 1.7. Statewide, the unsold inventory of homes was 1.6 months in November, compared to 1.8 months in October 2021 and 1.9 months in November 2020. It was the second straight month for a month-to-month drop statewide. Overall for the 2021 year, active listings fell 22.4 percent from 2020. Inventory levels indicate the number of months it would take for the available supply of homes on the market to sell-out given the current rate of sales.

--The median number of days it took to sell an existing, single-family home in San Diego County in November 2021 was nine days, which was the same number in October and September 2021. A year ago, in November and October 2020, the number was seven days. The nine-day figure compares to seven days in July 2021, six days in June 2021, and seven days in May 2021. The median represents a time when half the homes sell above it and half below it.

-- Statewide, the median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home remained at 11 days in November 2021, unchanged from October 2021. The 11-day figure compares to 10 days in September 2021 and nine days in November 2020.

-- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 3.07 percent in November, up from 2.77 percent in November 2020, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 2.51 percent, compared to 3.0 percent in November 2020.