PSAR members filled a packed room this week at the East County Service Center in El Cajon to look into the future and hear “2019 Housing Market Outlook,” a presentation from Oscar Wei, senior economist, California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

Wei told PSAR members that housing market conditions in California will continue soft in 2019 as prices remain flat and sales pull back throughout the year because buyers are expected to remain on the sidelines.

“The overall market will continue on a declining trend,” Wei said. “Many California consumers believe home prices will be flat or falling next year, and any growth will be at a very modest pace.”

Wei also said the interest rates, which recently dropped due to economic uncertainties, will eventually climb higher. In addition, if a second government shutdown occurs, similar to the recent 35-day partial shutdown which exacerbated partisan divisions, then the real estate market and U.S. economy could be negatively impacted.

According to Wei, current market fundamentals, including positive job growth, income growth and household formation, are still solid even though sales are down double-digits despite recent declines in interest rates. Meanwhile, price growth remains near its lowest levels since early 2012. Still, a window of opportunity is currently open for buyers, he said.

“Many buyers should buy now before interest rates climb higher in the near future,” said Wei. “Inventory levels are improving, yet a tight supply led to one third of sales closing above asking price in 2018. Fortunately, active listings increased for the ninth month in a row through November.

“The Fed has raised interest rates nine times since December 2015. If interest rates increase too fast, then economic growth will come to a halt.”

Wei also offered highlights from C.A.R.’s annual homebuyers survey, including:

• Most recent buyers ended-up compromising in some way, either by paying a higher price for a smaller home than desired or living a farther distance from work or schools.

• The reasons why most buyers delay buying sooner include saving for a down payment, waiting for finances to improve and prices to stabilize or difficulty qualifying for a mortgage.

• 80 percent of recent buyers had been saving for buy for more than one year.

• The net cash gain to sellers of roughly $200,000 has been the highest since 2006.

He said California cities are still not allowing construction of a sufficient supply of new homes: the California Department of Housing and Community Development projects that 180,000 new units are needed annually to keep up with demand.

Wei also discussed local market activity. In Chula Vista, 1,589 homes sold in 2017, compared to 1,407 in 2018, a decline of 11.5 percent. In El Cajon, 1,162 homes sold in 2017, compared to 1,133 in 2018, a decline of 2.5 percent. In San Diego County, 7,412 homes sold in 2017, compared to 6,774 in 2018, a drop of 8.6 percent.

The median price per city was as follows: Chula Vista -- $570,000 in 2017, $569,500 in 2018, a difference of 0.1 percent; El Cajon -- $530,000 in 2017, $575,000 in 2018, an increase of 8.5 percent; San Diego -- $640,000 in 2017, $695,000 in 2018, an improvement of 3.1 percent.

Wei concluded his remarks by saying seven out of 10 Americans still believe that owning a home is an important part of the American dream, and 45 percent of home shoppers plan to purchase within the next five years.

Below are a few links to go to for more statistical housing market resources.  These resources are for Realtor members and will require a CAR login. 

Data & Statistics                              https://www.car.org/marketdata/data

Housing Affordability Index       https://www.car.org/marketdata/data/haitraditional

Housing Matters Podcast             https://www.car.org/marketdata/podcast

Market Minute                                  https://www.car.org/marketdata/marketminute

County Market Updates               https://www.car.org/marketing/chartsandgraphs/marketupdate

Interactive Market Stats               https://www.car.org/marketdata/interactive

Market Snapshot                            https://www.car.org/marketing/chartsandgraphs/marketsnapshot

Housing Market Webinar             https://www.car.org/knowledge/multimedialibrary/webinars/market

Also, click here to view Oscar Wei's Presentation.

Get the latest facts on property management legislation!

Friday, February 15, 2019; 
9:00 AM - 11:00 AM
PSAR South,
880 Canarios Ct., Ste. 100,
Chula Vista, CA 91910

Cost: FREE to PSAR members, $20 for Non-Members

  REGISTER HERE  

Discussion topics will include:

• Legislative Update from the San Diego Apartment Association (SDCAA)
• C.A.R. Updates
• Rent Control
• Just Cause Eviction
• Information sharing

Discussion leaders:

• Brad Wilson, REALTOR®
• Eric Sutton, REALTOR®
• Molly Kirkland, Public Affairs Director with SDCAA

 

REMINE TRAINING

Remine is a powerful tool combining visualization of in-depth property data with predictive analytics. Here's what you will learn in this training:

• Remine enriches the information you see in your MLS front end Buyers’ agents can quickly submit a request.
• Search for advanced data fields to improve your farming.
• Build your own property tracking databases in Remine
• Make the most of Remine’s predictive analytics features

The cost to take this class is FREE. PSAR is offering this training in three locations and dates. See below:

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February 14th, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM
PSAR Central, 4340 Genesee Ave., #203, San Diego CA. 92117

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February 20th, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM
PSAR East County, 1150 Broadway, Ste. 100, El Cajon, CA 92021

   REGISTER HERE   FOR:
February 26th, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM
PSAR South County, 880 Canarios Ct., Ste. 100, El Cajon, CA 91910

California home sales declined for the eighth straight month in December 2018, according to the latest housing market report for home sales and prices from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R). The year finished with fewer sales for 2018 for the first time in four years. For the year as a whole, sales statewide were down 5.2 percent from 2017.

December’s sales figure was down 2.4 percent from the revised 381,400 level in November and down 11.6 percent from sales in December 2017 of 420,960. December marked the fifth month in a row that sales were below 400,000 and the lowest level of sales sold since January 2015.

Sales in San Diego in December 2018 were 7.4 percent lower compared to November 2018, and down 14.7 percent from December 2017.

“The housing market continued to shift in December and drift downward as sales have fallen double digits for the past three out of four months,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “This trend is expected to continue, as buyers remain cautious about the murky housing market outlook due primarily to the volatility in the financial markets and uncertainty in the economic and political arenas.

“Additionally, housing markets in and around the wildfire areas have been exhibiting unusual patterns that could remain unsettled for the next few months. The impact, however, is confined mostly within the region and should not have a noticeable effect in the housing market at the state level.”

C.A.R. said the statewide median home price in December 2018 was $557,600, which was up 0.5 percent from $554,760 in November 2018 and up 1.5 percent from a revised $549,550 in December 2017. The statewide median home price for the year as a whole was $570,010, up 6.0 percent from $537,860 in 2017.

In San Diego, the median home price in December 2018 was $618,500, which was 1.2 percent lower than the $626,000 figure for November 2018 and 2.2 percent higher than the $605,000 figure for December 2017.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 372,260 units in December 2018, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“California’s housing market in 2018 was hindered by endlessly rising home prices and interest rate hikes, which combined to erode housing affordability and hamper home sales,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “As a result, while the statewide median home price surpassed its previous peak and set a new record in 2018, annual home sales fell for the first time in four years to a preliminary 402,750 closed escrows in California, down from 2017’s pace of 424,890.

“In the coming months, we expect a brief hiccup in sales as the government shutdown temporarily delays closings due to interruptions in IRS income verification or the processing of HUD, VA and USDA loans,” said Appleton-Young.

Other key points from C.A.R.’s December 2018 resale housing report included:

• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home rose from 25 days in December 2017 to 32 days in December 2018. Meanwhile, in San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market was 27 days in December 2018, compared to 22 days in November 2018 and 18 days in December 2017.
• Statewide active listings rose for the ninth consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 30.6 percent from the previous year. All major regions recorded an increase in active listings, with the Bay Area posting the highest increase at 65 percent, followed by Southern California (34 percent), Central Valley (24 percent) and the Central Coast (12 percent).
• The Unsold Inventory Index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, increased year-to-year from 2.5 months in December 2017 to 3.5 months in December 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
• On a regionwide, non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales dropped double-digits on a year-over-year basis in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Coast, Central Valley and Southern California regions, with the Central Coast dropping the most at 24.9 percent.
• Thirty-nine of the 51 counties reported by C.A.R. posted a sales decline in December with an average year-over-year sales decline of 20 percent. Thirty-four counties recorded double-digit sales drops on an annual basis, and 10 counties experienced an increase in sales from a year ago.
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.64 percent in December, up from 3.95 percent in December 2017, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate also increased in December to an average of 4.02 percent from 3.39 from December 2017.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

• A new Zillow survey found that 27 percent of new homes in San Diego County experienced some price reduction in the fourth quarter, a 5 percent increase from the first quarter of 2018. Nationally, Zillow found that 25 percent of new homes experienced a price reduction in the fourth quarter, compared with 19.2 percent of homes in the first quarter of last year. Zillow said home shoppers nationwide may be able to find a better deal on a new home now than they could a year ago. Price cuts were more common in the fourth quarter than in the first quarter of last year, Zillow reported.
• CoreLogic recently reported that San Diego home prices were up 1.1 percent in November, after two months of decline. The real estate tracking company also said the median price in November was $565,000, which was $18,000 less than an all-time peak reached in August. 2018.
• The national economy is cooling but whether a recession is around the corner and how much a slowdown would affect the San Diego area is still an open question, according to local economists who met at the annual San Diego County Economic Roundtable at USD.
• San Diego County is one of the least affordable places to live in America, and renters know it. In 2017, 57 percent of the county’s renters were considered burdened by their housing costs, meaning they spent 30 percent or more of their income on rent and utilities. The figures come from data recently released by the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. The problem is even worse for the 28 percent of renters in the county who spent more than half their income on rent and utilities in 2017. People with higher rent burdens are more likely to skip doctor appointments and avoid paying for medications, and they are less likely to save money.
• Demand for rental apartments has reached near record highs in San Diego, according to RealPage, a national property management and software company. San Diego was among 17 metro markets where apartment occupancy rates were at their highest in the third quarter of 2018, higher than they’ve been in the past 15 to 20 years. Occupancy rates in San Diego were the highest they’ve been in about 15 years, the company said.
• A new survey suggests a general dissatisfaction with the way things are going in California, mixed with politics to create a highly toxic brew. According to Competitive Edge’s recent poll of 806 likely voters, 15 percent of voters are seriously considering leaving and another 13 percent are giving it some thought.
• According to a recent survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, the 60 percent of respondents identified as likely voters are predicting that children growing up today in California will face a bleaker financial furniture than their parents. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said that the state was divided into haves and have-nots, and 45 percent considered themselves have-nots.
• San Diego County’s job market finished 2018 on a strong note. The local non-adjusted unemployment rate remained at a historic low of 3.2 percent in December, according to the California Employment Development Department. That’s unchanged from a revised 3.2 percent in November and below the 3.3 percent rate a year ago. The county lost 1,500 net positions in December. But year-over-year, payrolls added 28,400, up 1.9 percent.

Help your clients by gaining the knowledge you need on the 2019 real estate housing market.

Presented by C.A.R. Senior Economist Oscar Wei. 

Wednesday, February 6, 2019, 11:30 AM* - 1:00 PM
(*Lunch starts at 11:30 AM and the presentation starts at 12:00 PM)

Seats are limited.
 REGISTER HERE 

PSAR East County, 1150 Broadway, Ste. 100, El Cajon, CA 92021
COST: (Lunch included), Members: $5.00, Non-Members:$10.00

Oscar Wei is the Senior Economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). Wei analyzes housing market conditions, consumer behavior, and public policy issues through the use of transactional data and survey research studies conducted by C.A.R. He assumes the managerial responsibility of data mining and analyzing housing market statistics released to the public on a regular basis.

Oscar’s areas of expertise are:

• Economic and Policy Analysis
• Housing Markets: U.S., CA, Local/Regional
• Analytics in real estate finance
• Consumer research in real estate
• Trends identification
• Housing market forecast
• Survey planning

Oscar earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley and a Master of Science Degree in Economics from the California State Polytechnic University, Pomona.

Oscar contributes frequently to C.A.R’s market analysis articles, Housing Matters blog, and Market Snapshot, and has written on topics like housing supply, distressed sales, housing tax policy, housing affordability, and many other subjects relevant to the real estate industry.

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What’s in store for the year ahead in the housing market?

The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reports that a combination of high home prices and eroding affordability is expected to cut into housing demand and contribute to a weaker housing market in 2019.

C.A.R. is projecting a 3.3 percent decline in existing single-family home sales in 2019, down from a projected 410,460 in 2018 to 396,800 in 2019. The 2018 figure is 3.2 percent lower compared to the 424,100 homes sold in 2017.

“While home prices are predicted to temper next year, interest rates will likely rise and compound housing affordability issues,” said C.A.R. 2018 president Steve White. “Would-be buyers who are concerned that home prices may have peaked will wait on the sidelines until they have more clarity on where the housing market is headed. This could hold back housing demand and hamper home sales in 2019.”

C.A.R. also is forecasting growth in the U.S. gross domestic product of 2.4 percent in 2019, after a projected gain of 3.0 percent in 2018. With California’s nonfarm job growth at 1.4 percent, down from a projected 2.0 percent in 2018, the state’s unemployment rate will remain at 4.3 percent in 2019, unchanged from 2018’s figure but down from and 4.8 percent in 2017.

C.A.R. also predicts the average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will rise to 5.2 percent in 2019, up from 4.7 percent in 2018 and 4.0 percent in 2017, but will still remain low by historical standards.

Rising mortgage interest rates coupled with higher home prices in California is expected to mean that only 25 percent of households statewide will be able to afford a median-priced home in 2019, said C.A.R. If the past is any indication, the percentage of households that will be able to afford a single-family home in San Diego County next year will be even fewer.

The median home price statewide is forecast to increase 3.1 percent to $593,450 in 2019, following a projected 7.0 percent increase in 2018 to $575,800, according to C.A.R.

“The surge in home prices over the past few years due to the housing supply shortage has finally taken a toll on the market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Despite an improvement in supply conditions, there is a high level of uncertainty about the direction of the market that is affecting homebuying decisions. This psychological effect is creating a mismatch in price expectations between buyers and sellers and will limit price growth in the upcoming year.”

Outmigration, resulting from the state’s housing affordability issue, will also be a primary concern for the California housing market in 2019 as interest rates are expected to rise further next year. The high housing cost is driving Californians to leave their current county or even the state.

According to C.A.R.’s 2018 State of the Housing Market/Study of Housing: Insight, Forecast, Trends (SHIFT) report, 28 percent of homebuyers moved out of the county in which they previously resided in 2018, up from 21 percent in 2017.

The outmigration trend was even worse in the Bay Area, where housing was the least affordable, with 35 percent of homebuyers moving out because of affordability constraints. Southern California did not fare any better as 35 percent of homebuyers moved out of their county for the same reason, a significant jump from 21 percent in 2017. The substantial surge in homebuyers fleeing the state is reflected by the home sales decline in Southern California, which was down on a year-over-year basis for the first eight months of 2018.

Outmigration will not abate as long as home prices are out of reach and interest rates rise in the upcoming year, said C.A.R.

California home sales continued their downward trajectory trend across the state for the seventh consecutive month in November as prospective buyers continued to wait out on the sidelines, according to the latest housing market report for home sales and prices from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R).

November’s sales figure was down 3.9 percent from October and 13.4 percent from November 2017. Homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 381,400 units in November, compared to 440,340 a year ago. November marked the fourth month in a row that sales were below 400,000.

Sales in San Diego were down 8.4 percent in November 2018 from October 2018 and 11.0 percent compared to November 2017.

“While many home buyers continue to sit on the sidelines, serious buyers who are in a position to purchase should take advantage of this window of opportunity,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “Now that interest rates have pulled back, home prices have tapered, and inventory has improved, home buyers’ prospects of getting into a home are more positive.”

C.A.R. said November’s statewide median home price declined to $554,760, down 3.0 percent from $572,000 in October but up 1.5 percent from a revised $546,820 in November 2017.

Prices are falling in San Diego as well. The median price in November 2018 was $626,000, down 1.5 percent from $635,500 in October 2018, but still 1.0 percent above last November’s $619,900.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 381,400 units in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“The slowdown in price growth is occurring throughout the state, including regions that have strong economic fundamentals such as the San Francisco Bay Area,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The deceleration in home price appreciation should be a welcome sign for potential buyers who have struggled in recent years against low inventory and rapidly rising home prices.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2018 resale housing report included:

• Statewide active listings rose for the eighth consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 31 percent from the previous year. November’s listings increase was the largest since April 2014.
• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home edged up from 22 days in November 2017 to 28 days in November 2018. Meanwhile, in San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market was 22 days in November 2018, compared to 24 days in October 2018 and 17 days in November 2017.
• The unsold inventory index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, increased year-to-year from 2.9 months in November 2017 to 3.7 months in November 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
• On a region-wide, non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales dropped double-digits on a year-over-year basis in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Coast, and the Southern California regions, while the Central Valley region experienced a relatively small sales dip of 3.9 percent.
• Forty-one of the 51 counties reported by C.A.R. posted a sales decline in November with an average year-over-year sales decline of 16.8 percent. Twenty-six counties recorded double-digit sales drops on an annual basis.
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.87 percent in November, up from 3.92 percent in November 2017, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate also increased in November to an average of 4.11 percent from 3.24 from November 2017.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

• San Diego leads the nation with the most home price reductions this year. The share of home listings with a price cut grew to its highest level in at least eight years, says a recent analysis from Trulia. San Diego had the most reductions, 20.5 percent, of the 100 biggest metro areas in the United States so far this year. San Diego was tied with Tampa, which also saw 20.5 percent of homes with a price cut.
• The San Diego metropolitan area has been ranked as the fifth least popular home buying market for millennials in the United States, according to the latest LendingTree report. The company found that San Diego-area millennials only accounted for about 35 percent of the home loan purchase requests for the first 11 months of the year. Tampa was ranked as the least popular market for millennial homebuyer loan requests, followed by Las Vegas, Miami and Orlando. Salt Lake City topped the list for the most millennial home loan requests at 51 percent. It was followed by Minneapolis and Pittsburgh, where nearly half of the requested loans were from millennials.
• Few millennial renters can afford down payment on a home. According to Apartment List’s 2018 Millennial Homeownership Report, 88 percent of millennial renters in San Diego say that they plan to purchase a home at some point in the future, but just 3 percent expect to do so within the next year, while 37 percent say that they won't buy for at least five years. The survey of 6,400 millennial renters found that while the overwhelming majority of those surveyed would like to purchase a home at some point in the future, far fewer are financially prepared to do so in the near term. Of the millennial renters in San Diego who plan to purchase a home, 59 percent have zero down payment savings, while just 14 percent have saved $10,000 or more, according to the survey.
• With average rents nearing $2,000 a month, San Diego may be one of the pricier places for millennial renters in the U.S. Despite the cost, however, a survey by the rental platform company Zumper said that only 2 percent of millennials are getting help from their parents for rent. San Diego appears to be the most independent city with only 2 percent of respondents who had their parents help with rent, compared to 24 percent in Detroit. Austin had the second largest proportion of millennials in need at 23 percent.
• San Diego had the second lowest unemployment rate among California’s most populous metro areas this year between July and September, according to a report released Wednesday by the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corp. San Diego’s third-quarter unemployment rate sat at 3.2 percent, bested only by San Francisco at 2.5 percent. The rates in both cities fell 0.5 percent between the second and third quarters. Compared to the other most populous metro areas in the country, San Diego ranked 10th in the third-quarter unemployment rate.

The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) recently conducted a consumer survey of California homebuyers. The survey examined the attitudes and behaviors of real estate consumers. According to its 2018 State of the California Consumer Survey, California’s competitive housing market and low housing affordability are forcing homebuyers to make compromises in their home purchases including price, size, location, and school quality.

The survey revealed that 44 percent of buyers bought a more expensive home than they wanted, 33 percent purchased a smaller home than desired, 36 percent purchased a home further from school or work than wished, and 30 percent purchased in an area where schools were of lesser quality.

“Well-qualified homebuyers understand that buying a home can be challenging in a competitive housing market environment and they may not be able to buy the ideal home they want,” said 2019 C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “Instead of finding a home that’s a perfect fit, they are finding a home that’s a good enough fit.”

Buying Experience

Buyers were not deterred by higher home prices and tight housing supply conditions but waited until their financial situations improved or to save for a down payment. Buyers typically saved for five years, and nearly a quarter of those who purchased a home priced $1 million or higher saved more than 10 years.

The source of down payment for the majority of home buyers was their personal savings. Boomers were more likely to use the proceeds from the sale of a previous home since many were repeat buyers. Millennials were significantly more likely than Gen Xers or boomers to use funds received from parents or family or a gift.

California’s costly home prices gave nearly one in three home buyers cause to consider purchasing in another state, but buyers ultimately stayed because they liked the city or state they currently lived in or because of their job, family, or friends. Younger buyers and first-time buyers were more likely to consider leaving the state. With the state’s housing prices at 161 percent above the national average, California’s high housing costs are the biggest factor hurting young, middle-class, often minority families.

Buyers typically spent eight weeks on their home search, and nearly one in three spent 13 weeks or more. Reflecting the extremely tight housing market in the San Francisco Bay area, buyers in the Bay Area spent a median of 10 weeks in their home search. Buyers who bought homes $1 million or higher spent a median of seven weeks searching for a home, while those whose homes cost less than a $1 million spent a median of eight weeks. Generally, the more competitive the housing market is, the longer it takes to find a home.

Buyers made a median of three offers on other homes before having an offer accepted, but nearly one-fourth made more than 10 offers. Those who purchased a home for more than $1 million made five offers on other homes. The hyper-competitive, supply-constrained Bay Area had the highest incidence of multiple offers.

Buyers Preferences

Homebuyers’ preferences varied by age/generation, income, and home buyer status (first-time, repeat, investment buyer, etc.).

The typical first-time buyer purchased a three-bedroom, 1,500-square-foot, single-family home. Nearly half purchased a home in the suburbs, and two-thirds purchased a one-story home. Buying a home within their price range and with the desired number of bedrooms were the top requirements for first-time buyers. They selected their neighborhood primarily based on their budget (53 percent), safety (51 percent), and proximity to jobs/school (38 percent). First-time buyers were likely to purchase a home close to where they previously lived, with only 20 percent choosing to leave the county or state.

Being in a better financial situation, repeat buyers typically purchased a larger home with three bedrooms and a median square footage of 1,700. Three in four purchased a single-family home, and more than half purchased a one-story home. Nearly half bought a home in the suburbs, 26 percent bought a home in the city outside of downtown, 18 percent bought homes downtown, and 11 percent bought in a rural area.

With lower income and less equity under their belts, millennials tended to buy smaller, more affordable homes than older generations with a median of 1,500 square feet and a median price of $350,000. Millennials were more likely to purchase a condominium or townhome in a suburb (43 percent), followed by a home in the city outside of downtown (26 percent). They selected the neighborhood they wanted to live in based on their budget (52 percent), safety (49 percent), proximity to jobs/schools (40 percent) and family/friends (33 percent).

Similar to millennials, the Gen X group most commonly selected a home in the suburbs, trading up to a home a median of 300 square feet greater than that of their previous home. More than half of them selected a home with at least one bedroom larger than their previous residence. Most purchased a single-family home, and townhouses/condos accounted for nearly 20 percent of those purchased. The majority of Gen Xers chose to buy within the same county as they previously lived, presumably to minimize disruption from the relocation and maintain the same lifestyle.

Boomers were most likely to have purchased a single-family home in the suburbs without stairs and were also the most likely to buy a home in a rural area since many of them are approaching retirement age and planning to age in their home and seek a quieter lifestyle. They were less likely to purchase in the same county they previously resided in with 24 percent buying in another county perhaps to be closer to children/grandchildren or healthcare facilities.

C.A.R.’s 2018 State of the California Consumer Survey , conducted online between May 9 and July 9, 2018, was designed to understand the process of home buying and selling, as well as the motivation behind renting and owning from the perspective of the California consumer. Surveys were sent to 470,803 consumers ages 18 and older in the state of California, resulting in 6,144 participants, a 1.3 percent response rate. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 1.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. For the buyers section, 1,441 buyers purchased a home in California within 18 months preceding survey participation.

California’s housing market declined for the sixth straight month in October, according to the latest housing market report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R). C.A.R. also found that existing home sales in the state dropped below the 400,000 level for a third consecutive month. The last time there were three straight months when the sales dipped below 400,000 was February 2015.

Summarizing the overall housing market, mortgage rates remain affordable while demand for existing homes is slowing, home prices are falling slightly, price growth is moderating, price reductions are becoming more common and a tight supply of available homes, still low, is increasing, while many potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold.

In October, C.A.R. said the month’s sales figures was up 3.8 percent from the revised 382,550 level in September and down 7.9 percent compared with home sales in October 2017 of 431,070.

C.A.R. said October’s statewide median home price was $572,000, down 1.2 percent from September ($578,850) and up 4.7 percent from October 2017 ($546,430).

In San Diego County, the median price of a single-family home was $635,500 in October 2018, a slight decrease from the $640,000 price reported for September 2018 and a 13.2 percent decline from October 2017 when the median price was $603,000. San Diego’s year-over-year comparison between October 2018 and October 2017 was the largest decrease among any Southern California market, said C.A.R. Orange, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties all experienced year-over-year, double-digit declines of 11.3 percent, 11.4 percent, and 13.2 percent, respectively. Sales in Los Angeles County declined 5.9 percent and were down 2.9 percent in Riverside County.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 397,060 units in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“Homebuyers continued to put their homeownership plans on hold in October and wait out the market,” said 2019 C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “With mortgage rates at seven-year highs making homeownership more expensive and home prices beginning to flatten, this phenomenon will likely continue for the near term as buyers wait for further price adjustments and for interest rates to stabilize.”

“October’s sales decline was not as severe as the double-digit drop experienced in September, but the continued pullback in sales suggests the market will continue to slow and likely soften further into 2019,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Likewise, as home sales continue to soften, the median price, which was the lowest since March 2018, will also ease up,” said Appleton-Young.

Other key points from C.A.R.’s October 2018 resale housing report included:

• Homes are taking longer to sell than they did just a few months ago. The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home rose from 21 days in October 2017 to 26 days in October 2018.
• Meanwhile, in San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market was 24 days in October 2018, compared to 19 days in both September 2018 and October 2017.
• Statewide active listings rose for the seventh consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 28 percent from the previous year. October’s listings increase was the largest in four years.
• Active listings in the $500,000-$750,000 price range experienced the largest year-over-year gain (43.9 percent), followed by homes priced $750,000-$999,999 (40.1 percent). The sub-$200,000 market was the only price segment with a decline of 6.2 percent from last year.
  
  The unsold inventory index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, increased year-to-year for the seventh consecutive month in October from 3.0 months in October 2017 to 3.6 months in October 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.83 percent in October, up from 3.90 percent in October 2017, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate also increased in October to an average of 4.08 percent from 3.18 from October 2017.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

• According to real estate tracker CoreLogic, a chill is settling over the once white-hot Southern California housing market. San Diego home sales decreased 17.5 percent in September 2018. A total of 2,942 homes were sold in the county, down 17.5 percent from 3,568 during the same month the previous year. It was the lowest number of sales for a September in 11 years, compared to September 2007 just before the Great Recession when 2,152 units were sold.
• CoreLogic also said in September 2018, the median price of a San Diego County home was $575,000, up 7.5 percent from $535,000 in September 2017, but it was the first decrease since January 2018 after hitting an all-time high of $583,000 in August. Most experts are attributing the slowdown to a rise in mortgage interest rates as potential buyers balk at higher monthly payments.
• The number of seriously underwater homes in San Diego County continued to decline in the third quarter as home equity maintained an upward trajectory, according to Attom Data Solutions. The real estate analytics company’s latest report found that only 6.5 percent of San Diego homes surveyed had mortgages that were at least 25 percent higher than the property's estimated market value.
• Discounts, gift cards, and free streaming services for new renters are on the rise across the nation, but San Diego County seems to be bucking that trend, according to a HotPads report. The online real estate company found that rental listings advertising a concession have increased by 15.8 percent since the fall of last year, but San Diego County has seen a 27.1 percent decrease in rental concessions year-over year. HotPads pegged the median San Diego County rent at $2,680 a month, representing a 4.8 percent year-over-year increase.
• San Diego County’s unemployment rate rose slightly in October, although total nonfarm employment increased by more than 10,000 jobs, according to the California Employment Development Dept. The county unemployment rate ticked up from an adjusted 3.2 percent in September to 3.3 percent in October, but is down from 3.6 percent in October 2017. A year ago, the rate stood at 3.6 percent.
• Wages and salaries jumped by 3.1 percent in October, the highest level in a decade. Also in October, U.S. consumer confidence rose to an 18-year high amid optimism about jobs and the economy, according to the Conference Board.

California’s housing market “continued to deteriorate” in September, according to the latest housing market report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R). Mortgage rates remain affordable while demand for existing homes is slowing, home prices are rising at a slower rate and a tight supply of available homes, still low, is increasing.

In September, C.A.R. said the state’s housing market posted its largest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014. In addition, home sales remained below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the second consecutive month, indicating that the market is slowing as many potential buyers put their homeownership plans on hold.

C.A.R. said September’s statewide median home price dropped to $578,850 in September. The September 2018 statewide median price was down 2.9 percent from $596,410 in August 2018 but up 4.2 percent from a revised $555,400 in September 2017.

In San Diego County, the median price of a single-family home in San Diego County was $640,000 in September 2018, up from $605,000 during the same month a year ago, according to CAR. The median price in September 2018 was down 3 percent from $660,000 in August 2018.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 382,550 units in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“The housing market continued to deteriorate and the decline in sales worsened as interest rates remained on an upward trend,” said C.A.R. President Steve White. “More would-be buyers are self-sidelining as they believe home prices will start to come down soon, making housing more affordable despite rising interest rates. Tax reform, which increases the cost of homeownership, also is contributing to the decline, especially in high-cost areas such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Orange County.”
“Price appreciations have slowed in the last few months and inventory has risen considerably since June when the statewide median price hit a new peak,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Buyers are becoming increasingly concerned about market developments and are reluctant to purchase at the prevailing market price. As such, the deceleration in price growth will likely continue in coming months.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s September 2018 resale housing report included:

• -- Homes are taking longer to sell than they did just a few months ago. The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home ticked up from 20 days in September 2017 to 23 days in September 2018, a sign that market competitiveness is not as heated as it was in 2017. The statewide number of days for August 2018 was 21 days. Meanwhile, in San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market was 19 days in September 2018, compared to 18 days in August 2018 and 16 days in September 2017.
• -- Statewide active listings rose for the sixth consecutive month following 33 straight months of declines, increasing 20.4 percent from the previous year. September’s listings increase was the biggest in nearly four years.
• -- The Unsold Inventory Index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, rose again to 4.2 months in September 2018 from 3.3 months in September 2017. It was the highest level in 31 months. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
• -- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.63 percent in September, up from 3.81 percent in September 2017, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate also increased in September to an average of 3.94 percent from 3.16 percent from September 2017.

In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:

• U.S. home sales fell for the sixth straight month in September 2018, a sign that housing is remaining a weak spot for the economy. The National Association of REALTORS® said that sales declined 3.4 percent in September, the biggest drop in 2 ½ years, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million. That’s the lowest sales pace since November 2015.
• Rising mortgage rates, paired with already high home prices, are giving pause to homebuyers and are partly to blame for the slowdown in sales, according to CoreLogic. With some rates running at around 5 percent for 30-year fixed-rate loans, CoreLogic reported that mortgage rates this summer reached the highest level in seven years, making it harder for some buyers to enter the market.
• Mortgage payments are rising faster than home values. A new Zillow analysis report found that monthly mortgage payments are rising at significantly higher levels than home values. For example, in San Diego County, the median home value rose just 4.9 percent year-over-year while the monthly mortgage payments jumped by 13.6 percent from a year ago, according to Zillow.
• According to Redfin, San Diego County’s housing inventory level climbed 30.7 percent year-over-year in September, trailing only San Jose (82.7 percent) and Seattle (54.5 percent). Inventory levels may have climbed, but Redfin’s recent overall assessment for San Diego County still gives us an 84 out of 100 ranking on a competitive scale with 100 being the most competitive.
• Rents have stabilized recently, which means many would-be buyers may not feel as much pressure to buy a home right now. However, looking ahead, San Diego County's average rent is projected to soar to $2,187 by 2020, according to a forecast by the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate in partnership with Beacon Economics. The USC forecast estimates that in two years average monthly rents in San Diego County will increase by $209 over their current levels. It also predicts rents will rise by $91 in Los Angeles County, by $52 in Orange County, by $107 in Ventura County and by $78 in the Inland Empire. The forecast also said while San Diego County's vacancy rate was unchanged at 3.94 percent in 2018, it is projected to drop to 3.75 percent in 2020 despite several thousand units that are either under construction or will be in development soon.
• Analysts remain mostly optimistic about the broader economy. Most forecast growth will top 3 percent for an annual rate in the July-September quarter, after a robust expansion of 4.2 percent in the second quarter.
• San Diego County created 700 jobs in September 2018 and added 27,000 jobs in the past year, according to a recent jobs report from the California Economic Development Department. The largest month-over-month increases occurred in the government sector, which added 5,100 jobs. With the creation of 14,700 jobs, the professional and business services sector reported the largest year-over gains. San Diego County's unemployment rate fell from a revised 3.4 percent in August to 3.2 percent in September. By comparison, the unadjusted unemployment rate was 3.9 percent for California and 3.6 percent for the nation during the same time frame, according to the report.